Second Round Series Preview: Bucks vs Celtics
In the 2022 NBA Playoffs, it really feels like anything can happen. As I’m writing this, the Raptors have a good chance to force a game seven after being down 0-3 to Philly, the Suns, Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves are set up for a pair of crucial game sixes, and only four teams have a ticket punched to the second round. With that being said, I wouldn’t expect too many surprises in the most anticipated second-round series between the Celtics and Bucks.
The Positives
Boston Celtics
For the Celtics, they have a lot to write home about. The Celtics defense held the Nets’ supernova isolation offense in check, limiting both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Jayson Tatum starred on offense, while Jaylen Brown proved that the Celtics can close without Tatum during the final minutes of game four. They’re riding the most momentum of any playoff team, the best defense of any playoff team, and arguably the best player in the playoffs so far, in Jayson Tatum. The Celtics are confident and they should be.
Kevin Durant vs the Celtics
Kyrie Irving vs the Celtics
Milwaukee Bucks
For the Bucks, dominance was also the theme. While they let a game two at home slip through their hands, they played very well under the circumstances in Chicago. Games 3-5 were blowouts, in part due to a larger lineup featuring Bobby Portis instead of the injured Khris Middleton. Their depth was also flashed as they saw Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Wesley Matthews play key roles for the Bucks.
Bucks Lineups vs Bulls
Bucks Depth vs Bulls
The Not-So-Positives
Boston Celtics
The Celtics don’t have many negatives heading into this series. They split the season series with a +13 point differential and almost won a recent matchup in which they were missing Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Robert Williams III in a game where the Bucks also had Khris Middleton, who will be out for this entire series. The only negative I can see is how they’ll reintegrate Robert Williams III and cover the Bucks outside shooting. The Celtics let Bruce Brown get his in the Nets series and even let up big performances from Goran Dragic and Seth Curry. The Celtics were trying to combat the Nets isolation style of play, which doesn’t apply to the Bucks, who like to move the ball. Gameplanning should solve this, but they should feel good about most of this series. They have at least two “Giannis-stoppers” in Grant Williams and Al Horford with potential for the Jays and Marcus Smart to also chip in. Not to mention the rim threat of Robert Williams III, the Celtics defense will be up to the task.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are coming off of a dominant win against the Bulls, but they should be concerned. Boston is the number one defense in the league for a reason and they’ve been relatively effective against Giannis this season. Giannis has played in three games against the Celtics this year, where they’ve kept him relatively at bay. In games where Al Horford has played, Giannis has been quite ineffective. In Giannis’ best game against the Celtics, on Christmas, the Cs were without Grant Williams and Al Horford. The fully healthy Bucks barely pulled off the 117-113 win. For the Bucks, the key to this series is in their depth. They might need 16-17 points per game from Grayson Allen and Jrue Holiday is definitely going to need to average at least 20. They have a tall task ahead of them and like Brooklyn, the depth will need to be perfect for them to have a chance.
Giannis vs Celtics this season with/without Horford
Where is the advantage?
Defense
The Boston Celtics obviously have the defensive advantage, boasting the regular season’s number one defense who just held both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant at bay for three out of four games. The only “weak point” on their defense is situational point guard, Payton Pritchard, who isn’t even a bad on-ball defender. They have no weak points and lock down.
Outside Shooting
In what might seem surprising, I think that the Milwaukee Bucks have the advantage when it comes to outside shooting. Whether it be perimeter guys like Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton, wings like Grayson Allen or Wesley Matthews, or even bigs like Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. Both of these teams can shoot, but the Bucks have surrounded Giannis with four quality shooters at each position and it makes the Bucks very dangerous when Giannis sucks in the defense. Slight advantage to the Bucks here.
Transition
Once again, I’m going to go with the Bucks here. Giannis alone gives them the edge here, but considering they also have Jrue Holiday to run with him, I must concede. The Celtics can run, but the Bucks encourage running. They play like a track team, if you know what I mean.
Clutch Time
This is where the pendulum swings back to the Celtics. The Celtics closed all but one of their four games against the Nets in clutch time situations and proved to have improved their situational awareness in those moments. The Celtics were just 13-22 in clutch time situations during the regular season, but in the playoffs, the Celtics have been on point. In a much more hypothetical sense, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are better closers than Giannis.
Half Court Offense
For me, once again, it’s Boston. It’s not that I see the Bucks’ half-court offense as bad, but if the Celtics can swarm Giannis like they have in the past, what can the Bucks do? Jrue and Brook PnR? For that reason and the fact that the Bucks have quietly built one of the worst defenses in the league, I’m gonna roll with Boston. The Celtics can just kill everywhere in a half-court offense. Assuming Robert Williams continues to come off the bench, the worst shooter in the starting lineup might be Marcus Smart, which is an insane tool to utilize. The can kill you in every set and motion, shoot the ball, get to the basket, and move the ball effectively.
Verdict
For this series, I’m going to take the Boston Celtics in five games. Once again, the Celtics depth and defense is key here. Without Middleton, Giannis is truly alone on offense. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are, to be frank, not good enough at this point in their careers to be effective as a number two. The Bucks only saving grace is that the Celtics have allowed bench scorers like Seth Curry, Goran Dragic, and Bruce Brown to go to work against them, but at what cost? Durant and Irving were almost completely neutralized in that series and if they do the same thing to Giannis, the Bucks don’t have a chance. The Bucks will need 12-15 points per game from at least two of Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, or Wesley Matthews to win this series and I just don’t think they can get it. There are too many “if”s for the Bucks without Khris Middleton and they’re too big of a risk. Like the Nets-Celtics series, the Celtics are clearly deeper than their opponent. Although notable Celtics killer Serge Ibaka could play a role in this series, the Bucks straight up didn’t play him in round one and Coach Bud isn’t known for making adjustments. Giannis will get his 28 points and 10 rebounds, but that isn’t enough against the Celtics. So, for the second straight round, I’m taking the Celtics in five.
Adam Zimmerman-Diaz
IG - @adam.zd
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