An NBA Finals Roundup and Draft Preview

 

        It’s been a few days since the conclusion of the NBA Finals and after having a few days to get out all the rage, I’m still upset. Yet, I’m still satisfied. That feeling of suspense, then letdown, then disappointment, and sadness is what basketball is all about. Basketball, more than any other sport is a game of emotions. After one of the most entertaining playoffs in recent history, I am only left with my emotions. In this piece, I’ll give my takes from the Finals and look ahead to Thursday’s NBA Draft. 

Loves and Mehs from the NBA Finals

Love: Andrew Wiggins

Once again, I have found myself praising Andrew Wiggins. I’ll say it bluntly that he is the reason that the Golden State Warriors are champions. Not Steph, not Klay, certainly not Jordan Poole or Draymond Green, but Andrew Wiggins. His defense on Jayson Tatum (injured, but still effective) was key and alongside his standout performances in games four and five, he was undeniable. As I said in my conference finals review, the Warriors had used him as a second option all playoffs and they would need all of his defensive capability against Boston. This would ring true almost to a tee, as he took them over the top in game four and carried them in game five. The Celtics focused on the Splash Brothers and the rest was history. He is about to be paid in free agency and he deserves every penny. This was the best story of the playoffs. An often ridiculed first overall pick whom everyone thought an underwhelming bust becomes arguably the most important player on a champion, safe for Stephen Curry. He put up 18 points and 8 rebounds in the most important series of his life. Curry landed the heavy blows, but Wiggins threw every punch and defended every knockout to keep the Warriors in the series. He deserves all of the flowers.

Meh: The Celtics’ Bench

For anyone who watched the Celtics during the season and especially during the playoffs, their bench really felt like a shaky Jenga block just waiting to fall out. Grant Williams had been a revelation against the Bucks, averaging 11 points while shooting 38 percent from three and playing elite defense. He had two crucial 20-point games in that series including a ridiculous seven (!!) three-pointers in game seven. He seemed fatigued against Miami, decreasing his scoring average to 8.7 points with some heavy lifting from a 19-point game two. Against the Warriors, it got even worse, as he finally completely fell out of the scoring rotation, averaging just over four points per game on just 30 percent shooting from three on only ten attempts all series. The rest of the playable bench consisted of Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. Derrick White is the most notable name here, but for him, it wasn’t necessarily an offensive fall-off as he wasn’t doing too much scoring, but it was defense. Against Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, he looked damn near unplayable. Against the Bucks and Heat, his defensive ratings were 104.9 and 103.6 respectively. Against the Warriors? That number exploded to 114.6. He went from their third-best defender against Miami to their second-worst against Golden State. In the Finals, your bench has to go more than one deep and with Williams and White becoming unplayable, a championship just wasn’t in the cards. Pritchard had always been a non-factor in these playoffs, serving to give Smart and White some rest and outside of one good game against Miami (the game one loss), he wasn’t giving the Celtics much. His drop-off came in his shooting. Against the Nets, Bucks, and Heat respectively, Pritchard shot 42.9 percent, 33.3 percent, and 37 percent from three. Against the Warriors, he shot just 21.4 percent from three. After a minus seven and 0-3 three-point night in game two, his minutes decreased for the rest of the series. In the deciding game six, he played just eight minutes, shot 0-2 from three, and was a minus twenty. No championship bench has ever been this putrid and that fact remains, as the Celtics, with this bench, were sent home.

Love: Stephen Curry

I know that a weird sect of Boston fans does not like Stephen Curry and they believe that he’s aided by a good whistle and moving screens. I am not one of those Boston fans. Stephen Curry played as well as he’s ever played and that’s including a game five in which he actually played poorly. As someone who watched every game and attended game three, it felt like a miracle every time he missed a shot. With Stephen Curry on the court, the Warriors had a net rating of 8.7 and an offensive rating of 115.8. With Curry off the court, the Warriors were a completely different team, with a -6.6 net rating and an 88.6 offensive rating. For those who aren’t math inclined, that’s a 27.2 point difference in offensive rating! Wiggins may have done all of the dirty work, but Curry was the one bludgeoning the Celtics’ defense. Curry turned the Warriors from a lottery team into a champion, he’s that good. This doesn’t include his 31.2 points, six rebounds, and five assists per game on 48.2/43.7/85.7 splits. He was by far the best player on the court and deserving of his fourth championship and first Finals MVP. He played with swagger, confidence, and toughness. He set the tone without being physical, which was a challenge that the Celtics had been yet to face and one they’re seemingly still unprepared for. At 34 years old, Stephen Curry is still him.

Meh: Jayson Tatum

I’d be lying if I said that this one didn’t hurt. I understand he was dealing with a shoulder injury. I understand that he’s played over 4000 minutes over the past calendar year. The thing is, I don’t care. That was the NBA Finals and if you’re playing, you’re healthy. Everyone is hurt and everyone is expected to take on an even heavier load. Against the Heat, the Celtics faced an injured Jimmy Butler who played injured for every minute and fell just inches short of his second finals. Against the Warriors, Stephen Curry got banged up, yet got up and just kept going. Tatum seemingly lost his aggressiveness past the first half of game seven against Miami. Tatum had a weird series against the Warriors, shooting 45.5 percent from three but just 27.7 percent on pull-ups and just 37.8 percent from within ten feet. He was better from long-distance shots than layups. Think about that, a 6’10” forward shot better from three than at the rim against a team with one big man who is shorter than him. Even weirder is that it wasn’t like he was avoiding shots at the rim, as just 20.8 percent of his shots came from three, and 37.5 percent of his shots came from within ten feet. Ignoring stats and focusing on the eye test shows the same thing. Every time he drove he either took a dumb shot, turned it over, or smoked an open layup. It could’ve been the shoulder injury, but I’m afraid that he was just shaken by the environment. He looked rattled. Jaylen Brown was the Celtics’ top option for most of this series. Heck, Jaylen Brown outscored and outrebounded Tatum vs the Warriors. He was downright awful in games one, four, and six. In those games, including the decisive game six, he averaged just 16 points per game, including 4.3 turnovers per game while having shooting splits of just 29.3/35.2/66.6. Number one options can’t have games like this in the playoffs, let alone the finals. This is all without mentioning his over 100 playoff turnovers, a record. In all, Tatum got outplayed by Stephen Curry. It happens to all superstars and it’s especially unfortunate that it happened to Tatum in his first-ever finals. He’ll probably be back and these Celtics are well ahead of schedule, but it’s hard to label his performance as anything but a disappointment.

10 Finals Takeaways

1. The Warriors are a dynasty.

2. Stephen Curry is still a top-five player, a top-ten player of all time, and the second-best point guard ever.

3. The Celtics are still too young.

4. These two teams could very well be back here next year.

5. Jaylen Brown is a star (please stop debating this).

6. The Warriors desperately need James Wiseman to break through.

7. Marcus Smart is the point guard going forward but he needs help and better backups.

8. Home court advantage is starting to fade across the NBA.

9. Steve Kerr probably shouldn’t have a head coaching job but is constantly carried by elite talent.

10.  The Celtics’ loss falls almost completely on Jayson Tatum, Ime Udoka, and the bench.

My Favorite and Least Favorite Prospects 

Favorite: Paolo Banchero, F, Duke

Two words: bucket getter. The NBA is about scoring and coming into the league, Paolo will have that. He has a big frame at 6’10” and is a lot more mobile than scouts are giving him credit for. I only see him as a three or a four in the NBA, but his lack of versatility is aided by his immediate fit. Out of the teams in the top three, he fits with every one of them. In Orlando, he would become the scorer on a team that lacks a true number one option. The Magic are loaded with solid playmakers in Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, and Wendell Carter Jr., but lack a true killer on offense. The Thunder are headlined by two pass-first players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey and Banchero could slide in as the guy right away. For Houston, he would be more of a secondary option to Jalen Green, but he knows how to get his own shot, so it’s not like he actually requires a solid facilitator for him. In my opinion, he’s far and away been the best player in this class for over a year. Does this mean he’ll go number one? No, because NBA scouts and general managers are often clouded by recency bias and questionable basketball IQs.

Not a Favorite: Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga

I know it’s overstated, but he’s way too skinny. I know that there are elite strength and conditioning coaches at the NBA level, but being under 200 pounds at seven feet tall is not a good sign. He was bumped around in college to a point where it affected him and in the NBA that’ll only get worse. He has a great skill set with excellent hands and a shot that looks like it can convert. He’s an excellent shot-blocker in space and his defensive instincts are well ahead of his age. Yet, I’m still not in on him. He’ll probably go top two, but until he’s at least 220 or 230 pounds, I don’t see it. He has to be able to get to his spots to be effective and without some muscle with his size, he lacks the quickness to do it. He’s 190 pounds right now and we’ll see how he does as a rookie, but he’s very raw. He lacks other important ball skills and doesn’t switch well. He is the definition of a project and for any of the top three teams, that’s not what they need right now. The Magic are already trying to develop three guys at once, Oklahoma City already has a young All-Star, and the Rockets are too fast-paced to have a slow and lanky big as their second option. His fit is terrible on each of the top three teams. I just don’t like him in this draft.

Favorites: Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky and Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin

I’m combining these two because they're similar for two very different reasons. They both can get any shot on the court, they both have questions about their size and defensive potential, and they’re both regarded as two of the top perimeter players in this draft. Sharpe is more of a mystery, though. He sat out the entire year at Kentucky after topping his high school class. Every team and scout is in love with him and his high school tape is some of the best in years. For Davis, he was the classic Big Ten overachiever. He was lights out in his second year at Wisconsin, breaking out with averages of just under 20 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game. At 6’5”, he fits the combo guard mold perfectly and he gives me shades of a young Bradley Beal. I absolutely love his game from a “real hooper” perspective and I think he could make an immediate impact. Many would compare him to 2021 “NBA-ready” prospect, Chris Duarte, who didn’t adjust well in his rookie season. To quell any doubts, the problem with Duarte was that he was too reliant on set plays and getting to the mid-range area. For Davis, he played both off and on the ball and showed skills in isolation. Put simply, his bag is deeper than Duarte and most players in the 2022 draft. Sharpe is the same way. He can play on and off the ball but shined as an isolation scorer. Where these two fall will be interesting as they can plug and play anywhere. Their only difference seems to be the mystique surrounding them as Sharpe is a complete mystery compared to Davis’ sure thing reputation. One thing is for sure though: they can ball.

Not a Favorite: AJ Griffin, G/F, Duke

I still don’t understand the hype around Griffin. I get it he can shoot and show defensive flashes, but he is such a project. He has almost no ball skills and is reliant on catch-and-shoot actions to get his shot off. Not to mention his slow release and awkward motion. It often goes in but in more of the Kevin Martin sense where the concerns are really around how he gets free and creates space. Griffin needs to develop these skills, but in a sense, they’re the hardest to develop. He lacks a handle and a feel for the game, something that prospects are supposed to have. He’ll have to have an inverted development to succeed, developing the soft skills that most NBA players are born with. I really don’t see a difference between him and players like Aaron Nesmith and Duncan Robinson. I cannot fathom why most mock drafts have him as high as the late top-ten. Like Holmgren, I just don’t get why GMs would invest in projects when there is a surplus of NBA-ready players in this draft.

Seven Picks That I Want To See

1. Jabari Smith to OKC

The KD-comp is real. He would develop perfectly alongside Shai and Giddey and already has an NBA-level three-pointer. This is the pick of destiny if it happens, KD 2.0.

2. Paolo Banchero to Houston

Perfect fit. 1-2 punch with Jalen Green and a complete middle finger to the play style of teams like Golden State, Boston, and Miami. No ball movement, just straight isolation. It’s chaos and I love it.

3. Johnny Davis to San Antonio

The Spurs need a scorer. Dejounte Murray can score, but he’s much more effective as a playmaker first, then a scorer. Davis can slide in and not be asked to do too much as the Spurs already have defensive studs and passers at every position. They could pick a big, but in a better world, Davis falls into their laps.

4. Jaden Ivey to New York

He’s an ideal fit for the market. It’ll probably cost them Quickley to move up to get him which would clear the way for him to start alongside RJ Barrett. He is this draft’s Ja Morant and his entertainment value would be perfect for NYC.

5. Tari Eason to Boston (somehow)

It would take a serious trade-up, but this would be so cool. He’s a 6’8” 3 and D athletic freak who is the perfect missing piece for Boston. He could be their Robert Williams-like pick if he falls, but it’s definitely a long shot. Would make a fun team even more fun.

6. Mark Williams to Charlotte

The Hornets need more dogs inside. They have a lot of perimeter players with an edge, but they lack a true inside presence. Williams gives LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier somebody to dump it into and someone to clean up all of the messes (misses) created by their questionable shot selection. Good fit pick.

7. Ochai Agbaji also to OKC

Agbaji is a good pick for OKC’s second pick. They should secure one of Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero and then go after Ochai. He’s an elite shooter who showed flashes of all-around scoring potential on Kansas’ trip to a championship. He’ll probably go sooner than 12, but it would be interesting if they got two potentially great scorers in the top 12.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd