Finishing Touches -- 2023-24 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Recap/Round 2 Preview Part 2
You guys got your dessert first with that giant recap of round one and round two previews, so it’s only right that I feed you some vegetables with a recap of the one remaining round series and subsequent only second-round series that I didn’t already cover. While boring, the last first-round series did affect my Celtics, so I’m happy to get right into it.
First Round Recap
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Orlando Magic
Winner: Cleveland in 7
My Prediction: Orlando in 6
This was an expected rock fight. This series had everything from traded blowouts to blown leads to close finishes. While defense ruled for most of the series, at the end of these close games, Donovan Mitchell’s offensive grace and experience won out. To say that the Magic were bad down the stretch in this series is an understatement. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs were 3-28 in game seven, but that’s far from the problem. Late-game turnovers, poor shot selection, and inexperience were the downfall for a promising Magic team. I don’t think I was wrong about the Cavs, but wrong about the Magic. The Cavs showed that their lack of depth isn’t good, they’re wildly inconsistent, and they cannot defend wings. Again, they got bailed out by Donovan Mitchell and that’s how they won. I don’t see them getting much of anything off of an injured Boston team, but crazier things have happened.
For Orlando, it was encouraging and disappointing at the same time. Despite being doubled and pushed around for seven straight games, Paolo Banchero was amazing. At just 22 years of age, he knows what spots he needs to get to, how to get everyone involved, and when to push the pace or slow things down. He really plays the game like a mid-30s veteran as a second-year guy. While Paolo might have seemed like the only bright spot from this series, Mo Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. also played really well within their roles. Those two bigs are the types of players that you try and hang onto for future playoff runs. They were chippy and hit timely shots, which are nice building blocks for a young team. Outside of defensive sparks from Suggs, Fultz, and Anthony, there wasn’t much else to write home about for the Magic. Going forward, the Magic need more shooting and scoring from the perimeter. While they’re being linked to Klay Thompson with their expected $40 million in cap space, there’s a certain unhappy forward on one of the worst franchises ever in Los Angeles. Paul George is a perfect fit and with no state income tax, a contract in Florida might be his best chance to get a payday and join an ascending contender. It’s a pipe dream, but I’d love to see it.
Second Round Preview
(1) Boston Celtics vs (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
My Prediction: Boston in 5
BOS X-Factor: Jrue Holiday
CLE X-Factor: Max Strus
Congrats Cleveland! Your prize for winning a grueling seven-game series against one of the best young teams in the league is playing against one of the best teams the NBA has seen in the last decade. Saying that the Cavs are outmatched against the Celtics is a massive understatement. Yes, the Celtics don’t have Porzingis, but does it matter? Almost all of Cleveland’s offense comes from their backcourt constructed of small guards and the Celtics have the best pair of defensive guards in the NBA. Not only did the Celtics dominate the regular season series, but the player who got Cleveland their only win against Boston, Dean Wade, is likely out for the series. The Celtics are also red hot right now and with the thin wing depth of Cleveland, this could be a series where Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown absolutely eat. The only reason that I don’t have the Celtics in four games is partly out of respect for Cleveland’s top talent, but also because of Boston’s biggest problem which is how they’ll get bored and shut themselves off for a game or two in a playoff series. In fact, game one is probably the best chance for Cleveland to steal a game. I wouldn’t be surprised if it went six, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics blow them out in every game and sweep. The Celtics will win, it’s just a matter of to what degree.
Max Strus is easily the X-Factor for Cleveland here. Not only does he have a storied history playing for Miami against the Celtics, but he also is Cleveland’s best wing option on either of the Jays this series. The Cavs won’t just need his three-point shooting, but they’ll need his defense too. The only way that Cleveland has a puncher’s chance is if he plays the best basketball of his career. The Celtics will focus the defense on Garland and Mitchell and even though they have Caris Levert, Strus is the only option that feels like another three-level scorer. For Boston, it’s a toss-up between White and Holiday and even though I missed on this against Miami, I feel like this is the series that Holiday really takes over. We saw it towards the end of the Miami series with Jrue, but his perimeter defense will really make an impact in this series and if the Celtics can tire out Mitchell and Garland, they’ll cruise in this series. Outside of his defense and only to a lesser extent, they’ll need his offense, but even without Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White and the Jays is more than enough to get by Cleveland. This round should serve as a warm-up to a bigger role in the next two rounds.
The Celtics are getting ready for a stretch run and they need to use this series as a springboard. Repeat 2008 and get some revenge for 2018. As a Celtics fan, I love this matchup and hopefully, it’s enough to raise their competitive levels for a Knicks series. It might seem boring from the outside, but just let the Celtics cook. Let’s go.
Thoughts on the rest
Before I leave the blog for the next week or so, I wanted to express how shocked I am at how the first two second-round series are playing out. Denver is cooked. Well, not really, but they have certainly been put in a rough situation by Minnesota. In 2017, I watched my Celtics lose two straight home games, that I attended, to begin a series against the eight-seeded Bulls. To win that series, they locked in on defense and got production out of a veteran Gerald Green who had barely played. To put it lightly, they made a lot of adjustments. If Denver wants to win two in Minnesota, they need to figure out a way to match the Wolves’ defensive tenacity and bench production. In my opinion, Anthony Edwards isn’t even the problem for them, it’s Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT has been unstoppable through two games and has genuinely outplayed Jokic, which is the biggest shocker of the playoffs. I don’t know if it means going bigger or weaponizing Aaron Gordon even more, but they have to find a way to slow him down. Outside of him, Mike Conley has also gotten whatever he wants in this series and they need to replicate the Timberwolves’ defense and stress pressure at the point of attack. It’s not over, but it’s looking bleak.
In the other series, I wasn’t shocked that it was close, but I somehow forgot about how swayed the officiating would be. The NBA wants New York to win this series badly. The referees will help as much as they can, but I doubt we see another game where Brunson gets 40 and Haliburton scores just 6. This series will definitely be longer than four or five games, but Indiana needs to blow the Knicks out so that these biased officials can’t get in the way. That being said, everything that needed to happen for the Knicks to win games happened as Jalen Brunson went off and a random role player – Donte DiVincenzo, last night – scored over 20. I still like Indiana, but the pessimist who thinks the NBA rigs things is telling me that the Knicks will somehow get by.
Round two has been entertaining and we haven’t even played half of the basketball. Tonight will be interesting but more so revealing as to what we see moving forward. Long live the playoffs!
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