Chaos, Dominance, and Revenge -- 2023-24 NBA Playoffs First Round Preview

 

        Is it an exaggeration to say that the play-in is the best thing to happen to basketball in the last decade? As far as rule changes go, the product that the play-in creates is amazing. Not only the on-court product but all of the drama off the court with the expanded opportunities for teams to make the playoffs. Speaking of playoffs, with the play-in officially having concluded, we finally have all of our playoff matchups in both conferences for the 2023-24 playoffs. It was a long year, but we finally made it to the big dance after a season that felt like we spent the entire time talking about it. Well, it’s finally here and as I do every year, I’m going to break down the matchups for the first round and pick some winners.

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston Celtics vs (8) Miami Heat

Prediction: Celtics in 4

BOS X Factor: Jrue Holiday

MIA X Factor: Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Well, well, well. Here we go, again. While the rosters are drastically different from the past two years, it’s an Eastern Conference Finals rematch that is effectively round three in the three-year-long battle that has been Heat-Celtics. While it’s going to be popular to hype this up as a six-to-seven-game thriller like people did with the Celtics-Nets series in 2022, the pendulum has handily swung in Boston’s favor. Not only have they added two All-Stars while swapping out Marcus Smart, who was notably bad in this matchup last year, but they added more spacing and more shooting, things that helped them beat Miami in 2022. The Celtics also swept the season series and that’s without mentioning the improvements to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Brown notably could not go left last season, the exploit that Miami used to defeat Boston in game seven after they injured Jayson Tatum just minutes into the game. This year, Brown has proved the notion that he “has no left hand” emphatically wrong and has been effective going that way this season, even preferring it at times. Even with all of that said, I haven’t even mentioned the most important factor in this series and that is the injury to Jimmy Butler that will sideline him for a month. Without Jimmy’s offense, the Heat will be relying on their role players to pick up the offensive load. While that’s worked in the past by using leverage off of Jimmy, the Heat don’t have that anymore, so it shouldn’t be effective.

On this topic, the most important player for Boston, without question, is Jrue Holiday. Even if the Celtics didn’t have Porizingis, they would still sweep Miami without Jimmy Butler. The key to this series, as we saw in the Bulls-Heat play-in game, is stopping Tyler Herro from collapsing the defense. While I could’ve picked Derrick White, Jrue is Boston’s best on-ball defender and his physicality and quickness to push Herro into natural double-teams will be key in making sure that no Miami player, no matter their role, can get into rhythm. Jrue also has a sizeable offensive role to serve as both a penetrator and a safety valve for Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis. Aside from his on-court role, Jrue must be a leader for the Celtics. It’s no secret that even in their wins against the Heat, the Celtics lost the mental battle. While Holiday was part of the Bucks team that lost to the Heat last season, he’s won a championship and slain much harder teams. He’ll need to keep Boston composed against this Heat team to prepare them for the run ahead. When you think about everything he’ll have to do for Boston, there’s no question why I’m highlighting him as their X-Factor. 

For Miami, it’s about fighting the Boston wings as much as they can. They need to make this a physical series because they just don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Celtics. On both sides of the ball, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is their solution. When he was drafted, I said how he’d probably end up being an annoyance in a playoff series against my Celtics and I was seemingly right ahead of that matchup. He’s been key in their season and was key in sending them to the playoffs in both play-in games. He has a high basketball IQ and seemingly has made every timely play that the Heat have needed. He’ll be tasked to guard one of Tatum or Brown and have to bully them right back when he has the ball. The Heat need somebody else outside of Herro and Bam to keep up with Miami and, whether he likes it or not, the rookie is going to be that guy.

With all of that being said, I’m taking the Celtics to sweep. Exercising a demon is not an easy task and while they could have some slip-ups, the only way to kill this team is to not let them have anything. A victory in five games should be viewed as a failure. The Celtics are favorites to win the title by a country mile and this series should be about showing why they’re the favorites to everybody else in the league. They need to put the NBA on notice that there are new kings ready to claim their crown.

(2) New York Knicks vs (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: Knicks in 7

NYK X Factor: Isaiah Hartenstein

PHI X Factor: Tobias Harris

After the play-in’s first two days of games, this was definitely my most anticipated matchup. Why? The Sixers are not a normal seven-seed and the Knicks are not a normal two-seed. One team is without their star big and the other just got their star big back. The difference in this series is really going to come down to Embiid’s injury and New York having home court. The Knicks offense has been Brunson and by committee which isn’t dissimilar to Philadelphia. Hell, the Sixers got Nic Batum to be their second option in the game that saw them secure the seven-seed. Between Embiid on an injury, an inconsistent Maxey, and an overloaded Jalen Brunson, the offense won’t be where this series is won for the Knicks, but it will be on defense. New York must contain Joel Embiid, no matter how injured he is. In this effort, I’ve identified Isaiah Hartenstein as their X-Factor for this series. Mitchell Robinson is coming off of an injury and frankly isn’t heavy enough to tangle with Embiid. Without Randle, who wasn’t big enough to handle Embiid anyway, Hartenstein is really their only big body to help contain Embiid. Embiid only played the Knicks once this season, in a 36-point loss, but that game featured two teams that looked very different than the two entering this series. 

For Philadelphia, they’ll need to mitigate a fantastic defensive team and the fact that their star is injured with more offense. While they have Tyrese Maxey, he’ll be battling Jalen Brunson. To me, their real issue is wing scoring and while Kelly Oubre and Nic Batum will be factors in this series, Tobias Harris needs to step up as a third option. It’s a bit of a meme at this point how unreliable Tobias Harris is, but to upset a two-seed, the Sixers will need to defy the doubts and destroy the memes. Tobias Harris will need to become a 15 to 20-point-per-game scorer and punish the switching and doubling of the Knicks. If he cannot supplement Embiid and Maxey, the pressure and short bench of the Sixers will come back to bite them. In a more accounting-focused view, Tobias Harris is making just over $39 million this year and it’s time for him to play like it. 

In the end, I like New York in a really close series because of their depth, defense, and home-court. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how Philadelphia has a tendency to shrink in these moments and with Embiid hobbled and their depth already questionable, especially at center, I don’t know how much they’ll be able to hang with a Knicks team that loves to get physical and dominate pace. It’s also important to highlight how a possible game seven would be in Madison Square Garden which is a very hard environment for any team to win in, let alone a seven-seed ravaged by injuries. The Sixers are better than most seven-seeds, which is why I think it’ll go seven, but they aren’t special enough to get by these Knicks.

(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs (6) Indiana Pacers

Prediction: Pacers in 6

MIL X-Factor: Khris Middleton

IND X-Factor: Pascal Siakam

Let’s address the elephant in the room: Giannis will likely miss the first three games of this series. Even if he misses two, the series could be too far gone by then. Giannis aside, this was probably the worst possible matchup for the Bucks as not only do the Pacers have a huge leg up in pace over a Giannis-less Bucks, but have also beaten them in four of their five matchups this year, with the Bucks only win coming on a night where Giannis scored 64 points and Pascal Siakam was still a Raptor. The Pacers have shown in the in-season tournament that they step it up in big games and have a tough home court. That being said, it’s imperative for the Bucks, without Giannis, that they can take care of the first two games at home, which is much harder said than done. 

For Milwaukee, the key to this series will be slowing down the Pacers and getting secondary scoring somewhere. Even though Damian Lillard’s ability to play well in this matchup is highly questionable, the most important player outside of him is unquestionably Khris Middleton. In every deep run that the Bucks have ever had, Middleton has been at the center of it. He was the perimeter balance to Giannis and in a series without Giannis against a team that gets scoring from just about everywhere, Middleton will be key in taking a heavy load off of Damian Lillard. He’ll also need to be able to defend the swath of wings on Indiana’s bench and be quick enough to deter all of Indiana’s shooters from getting hot. It’s a lot to ask, but given how bad Milwaukee’s wing depth is, the Bucks need him to do it or they are in trouble. Middleton, Lopez, Portis, and Connaughton are among the Bucks veterans who are too slow to be effective in this series, and at least one of them will have to be able to slow the game down enough to be effective. In this quest, Middleton is the one to do it.

For Indiana, this is a best-case scenario. Aside from not having home court, everything is breaking right for Indiana in the first round. For me, Siakam might be the third-best healthy player in this series, but his role is expanded even further given the uncertainty around Giannis’ availability. The Pacers need him to be the big, along with Myles Turner to some extent, that keeps pace high against this older Bucks group. If Siakam can be a quick small-ball center that runs the floor, the Pacers can - no pun intended - push the pace and run the Bucks off of the floor. His outside shooting ability, which has been wildly inconsistent, will also be somewhat important to stretch the floor, but given the threat that him and Myles Turner pose to defenders, it should be enough on face value to stress Milwaukee’s defense.

In the end, I really like the Pacers in this series. The Bucks have proved all year in every single loss that records and seeding mean nothing against them. In a year plagued by dysfunction, this team has never looked more disconnected and they just lost the glue holding it all together in Giannis. Even if Giannis plays, that only makes it a coin flip of a series and given the head start that Indiana is going to get for the first few games of the series, I’ll take them. That is compounded with the pure hatred that these Pacers seem to have against the Bucks and the Pacers look more like the favorites than anything. I have a lot to say about this series, but I’ll end it with a nightmare scenario for the Bucks and that is the timeline where Giannis misses the first two games of the series and the Bucks lose both of them. If that happens, is that worth rushing Giannis back after seeing what happened to Kevin Durant in the 2019 Finals? I think that there’s a real possibility that the Bucks lose the first two games and just as Giannis is starting to ramp up, they make a business decision and shut him down. Just a thought, but even without bleak conspiracies, the Pacers are still the better and younger team, so give me them in six.

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Orlando Magic

Prediction: Magic in 6

CLE X Factor: Max Strus

ORL X Factor: Jonathan Isaac

We have reached the NBATV series in the East. Undeservingly, this matchup has been hailed as the most boring matchup of the playoffs, and looking at the broadcasting schedule for this series, the NBA feels the same way as the NBA fans on Twitter. It’s not going to be as fun as the other East series, but it’s more interesting than people are chalking it up to be. Cleveland probably has a more entertaining offseason ahead than their actual play on the court and the Magic struggle to score more than a guy in a fedora, but these stone-throw series that are low-scoring and very close can actually be very entertaining. They split the season series this year with only one of the four games not being a blowout, so naturally it was a very hard matchup to predict. However, given Cleveland’s inconsistency and tendency to blow leads combined with Orlando’s hunger to make it to this moment, I like Orlando to pull off a few moments as the younger and feistier team and come out on top.

I wanted to highlight Max Strus in this series because he feels like the Cleveland wing that is most likely to make an impact in this series. He has playoff experience and seems to be one of the few players in this series that actually steps their game up a level in the playoffs. In a similar fashion, he also wasn’t on the Cavs last year when they lost to a very similar New York Knicks team and it’s not out of the realm that the same thing happens this year. Given that he moves a lot and is a reliable shooter, I like the perimeter threat that he poses to Orlando’s top defense. He isn’t a star or even really a great player, but he’s as important as role players get and Cleveland will need all of the Miami Heat devil magic that he has left. Outside of Strus, Donovan Mitchell is coming off of an injury and has been wildly inconsistent with Darius Garland being relatively unproven in a playoff setting. The Cavs will need help on the perimeter and Strus is where they’ll get it. 

On the Orlando side, I already hinted at it, but the key is defense. Outside of Paolo Banchero, they can’t score worth a damn, so the name of the game will be stopping the other team from scoring. In that department, noted right-wing fanatic, Jonathan Isaac, has been their best player. Isaac has quietly seen a minutes uptick in the last few weeks and is one of the few players in the NBA who can truly effectively guard every position. They could theoretically throw him on Mitchell if they wanted to, but if they are able to use him to guard Cleveland’s bigs and push the pace, Orlando could turn defense into offense and really help themselves out. Aside from being able to cover anyone, Isaac can also take defensive pressure off of Paolo, who they’ll need to do the bulk of the offensive scoring and playmaking. Isaac can make a lot happen on the defensive end and can change the outcomes of games in the last five games. In a series this even and this offensively challenged, players like that are worth their weight in gold. While Suggs is doing the disrupting on the perimeter, Isaac can clean up everything else. So, in this closely weighted series, I’ll take Orlando.

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8) New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: Thunder in 5

OKC X Factor: Chet Holmgren

NOP X Factor: Jonas Valanciunas

The Thunder might be the biggest surprise of this season, but too many people are waving red flags about their playoff hopes. Too small, too young, and too inexperienced is what they cry and they are somewhat correct in those assertions. However, this team is ready. Apart from not really having a physical center, they have everything a contending team needs. They have speed, depth, shooting, and no shortage of playmakers. The thing that they lack is maturity, which is why I think they’ll drop a game to a very injured Pelicans team, but other than that I see this series and really this entire postseason as a springboard for them and their young players.

One of their young players, Chet Holmgren, is my X-Factor for them in this series. I have written so much about Shai this season that I feel like it’s only fair to talk about somebody else on the Thunder. I love Shai, but it’s time we look at Chet in a similar way. He’s way earlier on his trajectory, but Chet was very impressive this year. He won’t win any awards but he was an effective center for the type of basketball that they played. The Thunder stretched the floor and pushed the pace. The problem? The game slows down and gets way more physical in the playoffs. He’s still young, but he is a string bean, and against a Pelicans team that likes to get physically into their opponents more than anything, Chet’s performance against Jonas Valanciunas will be the most important matchup of the series. It will be his first real physical test and I’m looking forward to seeing how he’ll approach it, specifically defensively. Offensively, he’ll be a problem for New Orleans and will be a switching nightmare, but I picked him out of curiosity about how his game could evolve in real-time. I think that the Thunder could potentially make the finals and should at least make the Western Conference Finals, but no matter what they do, I’ll be watching Chet and his progress.

On the other side, Jonas Valanciunas will look to be the one matchup offensively that New Orleans might be able to win. In the play-in, he went toe to toe with both Anthony Davis and Domantas Sabonis by using his size to be as physical as he could with them and he came out pretty well. The Lakers barely beat the Pelicans and really only beat them because of an injury and the Pelicans dominated the Kings for the majority of their final play-in game. I don’t like the Pelicans to win the series or even get close, but something about this big-man matchup and how different the play styles of each player are really intriguing to me. I’m looking forward to seeing if Valanciunas can use his body to his advantage on offense but also how it might hurt him defensively. This is right up there with Cavs-Magic as the least entertaining series, but if I watch, I’ll pay attention to this matchup.

Overall, the Thunder just have too much for the Pelicans, and even with Zion, would beat them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar and this series will serve as his vehicle to his first deep playoff run. I’m looking forward to seeing the Thunder blossom and the Pelicans lay the foundation for a very interesting offseason ahead of them.

(2) Denver Nuggets vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

DEN X Factor: Aaron Gordon

LAL X Factor: D’Angelo Russell

It’s certainly not as hyped up as the other conference finals rematch, but the first round of the Denver Invitational will still be closer than let on. Given the Nuggets’ inconsistency and how well the Lakers played them over the past two years, I like the Lakers to do better than last year but still come up short. I have seen too many smart people give the Lakers a real chance to win this series, and giving them two games was hard enough for me, but the basketball world appears to have forgotten who the Denver Nuggets are and I’m looking forward to the reminder. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world. That is a fact. It’s also a fact that the Nuggets, outside of the Celtics, have the best supporting cast around their superstar in the league. They are deep and well-coached, and if that fails, they have the best player in the league. The defending champions are stronger than ever and though still working out some kinks to their game, they’re going to make another deep run. That starts by knocking off the Lakers and their top-heavy roster.

Seeing as they are top-heavy, the Lakers' most important player is D’Angelo Russell. In the play-in and the end of the regular season, we saw how good the Lakers can be if Russell plays like the All-Star that he was a few years ago. His playmaking and shooting have appeared to have improved and he’s no slouch defensively. His role is made even more important because of how much Denver’s offense relies on Jamal Murray and how he’ll have to go back and forth with him. The Lakers also have very shallow depth at guard and outside of him and Austin Reaves, Gabe Vincent is the only quality guard on the roster. Assuming LeBron and AD are on, Russell will have to be the desperately needed third option if the Lakers want a puncher’s chance in this series. 

For the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon is their X-Factor. Put very simply, he is one of maybe three guys in the league who are both quick and strong enough to effectively challenge LeBron James on defense. In Denver’s Swiss-army knife of depth, he is the LeBron deterrent. Outside of guarding LeBron James, he also provides extra spacing for Jokic to work with and always knows when to cut and where Jokic is going to put the ball. If Nikola Jokic was a pitcher, Aaron Gordon would be his catcher. They always know where to go and where to give the ball to each other. Offensively, he’ll be a big part of Denver’s game plan to make Anthony Davis run his head in circles. 

Even though this Laker team is different and LeBron has never looked as sharp as a playmaker outside of 2018, Denver is just too good. There are maybe three teams left in the playoffs who can actually beat them and the Lakers are not one. Barring injuries, if this series doesn’t end with the Nuggets rolling into the second round, the apocalypse may not be far behind. I like the Lakers to close out both of the first two home games this time around, but not to win the series. Give me Denver in six.

(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (6) Phoenix Suns

Prediction: Timberwolves in 6

MIN X Factor: Jaden McDaniels

PHX X Factor: Jusuf Nurkic

In a way, these two teams matter to Denver more than the Lakers. Both Phoenix and Minnesota are fighting for the right to play Denver and both play them really well. If the Nuggets had to pick a team that they didn’t want to play in the West, it would certainly be Minnesota. I’ll write more about them if they match up in the next round, but it’s safe to say that Minnesota has Denver’s number. There is also an interesting dichotomy between the Suns and Wolves. These two actually played for this matchup on the last day of the season and by beating the Wolves, the Suns now get to play them. Anthony Edwards complained about the Suns’ free throws after that game and even though it’s petty to do that after a loss, he is right. In the playoffs, defense reigns and this Minnesota defense was the best in the league this year. Anchored by Rudy Gobert, they have defensive studs across the roster and that’ll be what defines this series.

As Edwards’ old adage goes, “They got KD, but we got Jaden McDaniels”. Indeed they do and he is the key for shutting down Durant in this series. In their three matchups this season, McDaniels has held Durant to just 22 points per game, which is extremely impressive considering Durant’s pedigree and his 27-points-per-game average this season. They’ll need McDaniels to defend on an elite level while also providing some ancillary scoring for the absent Karl-Anthony Towns. McDaniels has had a career year across the board and he’ll need to continue that to propel Minnesota past Phoenix.

For the Suns, a team powered by offensive firepower, their most important player to me, is one that will provide rebounding and defense. Jusuf Nurkic has his work cut out for him. Not only has he had to be the only rebounder on the Suns all year, but he’ll have to battle with the likely Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, to keep the Suns alive on the glass. Minnesota is so good at deterring players from getting to the rim and Nurkic needs to provide Booker, Durant, and Beal with some balance so that they can create inside. Without Towns, the Wolves will also try and exploit Nurkic as much as possible and his job is doing the best he can to adapt to switches and try and outrebound Rudy Gobert. It’s a tall task, but if they can eliminate Minnesota’s paint advantage, they could turn the tides in the series.

With that being said, I don’t think that Phoenix has enough resistance inside nor the depth to hang with Minnesota in a seven-game series, even without Towns in the lineup for the Timberwolves. I think it’ll be similar to the Suns’ series against the Nuggets last year where they can keep up with their opponent for four games before the wheels completely fall off. There could be an offensive explosion, but if there is, we haven’t seen it yet. I like teams that can excel in all facets of the game. Minnesota does and Phoenix does not. I’ll take the team with home-court advantage and top defense in six games. 

(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Mavericks in 7

LAC X Factor: Kawhi Leonard

DAL X Factor: P.J. Washington

This was the hardest series to predict out of all eight first-round matchups in either conference. Both teams aren’t really built for each other at all and one injury on either side can completely swing the trajectory of the power balance in this series, but I like the Mavericks’ versatility and isolation scoring a lot better than the Clippers. I also have to preface this entire analysis with my fear of Kawhi Leonard’s injury history being a huge factor. Kawhi Leonard has not been fully healthy for a playoff run since 2019. As a Clipper, calling him very injury-prone is an understatement. When he’s healthy, he’s amazing, but he is never healthy. If he were healthy, frankly, I’d have this series going the other way. However, I live in reality. In reality, Kawhi is probably going to play, at most, four games in this series, and without him for the home stretch of a close series, the Clippers don’t have enough speed, defense, or reliable playoff performance to win games against Luka Doncic. Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook will be huge factors in this series and I don’t know that I trust all three to perform at the top of their game. In some ways, the Clippers’ reliance on them is a red flag, but it’s a fine group that was built around Kawhi Leonard and if he were healthy, would be enough to supplement him. However, without him or without the healthy version of him, they become far less effective. We’ve seen it in the playoffs for years and honestly, they’re like the James Harden Rockets where they’ve run out of chances. I am done giving this group a shot and I’d be proud of them if they won, but Dallas is too hot and the Clippers are too unreliable and injured to trust. For me, that’s why Kawhi is their X-Factor, but also why I’m picking the Mavs.

On Dallas’ side, their top two guys are well-known and I could’ve gone with a different one of their three big men that have changed their roster, but P.J. Washington is the one that changes the dynamic of a Clippers matchup. The most unspoken thing about the Clips this year is how slow they are inside and Washington as a small-ball center can take Zubac and Theis away from the basket to give Kyrie and Luka space to drive or force switches that he can take advantage of. Either way, his ability to hit an open three when Luka or Kyrie drives will be crucial in spreading the Clippers’ defense and opening up shots for both himself and the other Dallas shooters. They’ll need a third scorer to have at least one special game this series and while Washington might not be a permanent number three, he could have a game or two of 20-ish points where he really makes the difference. Not to mention his hustle and effort defensively should also serve dividends in a playoff series that could really turn into a dogfight. Luka and Kyrie will make or break the Mavericks, but Washington represents the foundation that allows them to do so.

In what is ultimately the closest series to call, I’m going with Dallas for reasons that are mostly about the Clippers. For that reason, it wouldn’t shock me if Los Angeles won, but I doubt that they’ll keep it together long enough to do so. The Clippers are either waiting on a meltdown or a deep run and there is no in-between. Considering the risk, give me Luka and the Mavs.

Conclusion

The first round is usually our best indication of where teams are headed. Typically we see contenders start to rev up and dark horses begin to emerge. There will certainly be upsets and I’ll finally admit in one of these pieces that I probably will get some of these wrong. The error is where the fun is, though. If I knew everything that was going to happen, I wouldn’t watch. The uncertainty and unpredictability are why we care and without those things, there wouldn’t be sports. I hope that there are all sorts of twists and turns that we can unravel in a few weeks that I wasn’t able to pin down. Give me them all. That being said, the Celtics better not blow this.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

Twitter - @TheSatBlues