The Season of the Chip -- 2023-24 NBA Conference Finals Recap and Finals Preview

         In basketball, we often associate a quiet whimper with a series ending in four or five games. These conference finals, while blowouts on paper, were made up of close games, interesting dynamics, and surprise breakouts. As a primer for my perspective on these playoffs, the deeper we’ve gotten into the postseason, the worse the takes have been surrounding individual players as well as teams. For the most part, I’m going to try and focus my recaps and analysis on what I saw rather than lazy and contrived takes but I’m leaving this as a warning that as I dive into the finals matchup, which is the most toxic NBA Finals in a while, I could fall victim to focusing on a narrative. I’ll do my best because the basketball itself is actually quite intriguing but there are certain ways of thinking about these playoffs that do need some critiquing. That being said, there have been two series of basketball since I last wrote here, and there is one more to go before the season is over, so let’s get to recapping!

Conference Finals Recap

(1) Boston Celtics vs (6) Indiana Pacers

Winner: Boston in 4

My Prediction: Boston in 5

This series was a weird one. I think that everybody knew that Boston would win it but certainly not like that. Outside of game two, each game was a thriller but the Celtics just executed better in the fourth quarter. Game one is the only one that Indiana really “blew” and even then Jayson Tatum just torched them in the overtime. Not only did Boston show their class but they also showed their maturity. In each of the close games, the Celtics demonstrated how everybody on the floor wearing green had been there before. There was a level of urgency with each late half-court set and defensive stop that the Celtics haven’t shown in a long time. This was the first time that I saw either one of the Jays really stop and take a breath to realize that they were the best players on the floor and that they dictated the pace. Even without Haliburton, the Pacers and Andrew Nembhard of all people were still able to score on almost every play and play faster than any team in the league. Yet, through that, the Celtics still managed to get key stops and manipulate the Pacers’ defense into getting the shots they wanted. It could be seen on any one of Jayson Tatum’s stepback threes, the Derrick White winner in game four, the Jaylen buzzer-beater in game one, and a boatload of Jrue Holiday layups but it’s best encapsulated through Jayson Tatum’s unreal behind-the-back pass to Al Horford through a double team for a clutch three in game three. To me, that play was when it felt like the Celtics were going to sweep the Pacers. It was the first time since his 46-point outburst against the Bucks in 2022 that I saw Jayson Tatum take full control of a game but this time it was with his all-around play and not just his scoring.

To that note, Tatum has taken a huge leap during these playoffs and it was on full display in this series. Whether it be his elite defense, big-time shot-making, playmaking, rebounding, scoring, or hustle, Tatum was everything for the Celtics against the Pacers. I love that Jaylen Brown got the Eastern Conference Finals MVP because he was also fantastic in this series but when his name was called, I can’t lie, I was shocked. His MVP win is somewhat distorting what Tatum did in this series, joining LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Nikola Jokic, and Jason Kidd as the only players to lead their team in scoring, rebounding, and assists in a single series on the way to the NBA Finals. It was a great series for Jaylen, but a historically dominant one for Tatum. That’s not a bad thing either, in fact, it’s a great thing for the Celtics. This also marked the first big-time moment where the Jays didn’t just co-exist in a big series but mesh and play off of each other effectively. Jaylen looked a lot more comfortable playing off of Tatum’s leverage and vice-versa and they were able to communicate as playmakers to get Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford open shots. The Celtics used this series as both a measuring stick and a launch pad. They were able to show that they are better than the entirety of the East and warm up for what’s to be a complicated finals matchup against the Mavericks. I would talk a bit more about the Pacers but outside of Andrew Nembhard’s breakout, there was nothing notable for them. The Celtics won and I’m glad I don’t have to see TJ McConnell torch my team again.

(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (6) Dallas Mavericks

Winner: Dallas in 5

My Prediction: Minnesota in 6

I would call it a disappointment but honestly, it wasn’t too surprising. While I was expecting Minnesota to crash out in the Finals, it ended up coming a round early to a vastly inferior Mavericks team when compared to who they beat in Denver. I credit Dallas and I’ll touch on them later but this was an all-time Minnesota collapse going back to game three of the last series. To repeat what I already said on Twitter this week, the Wolves should have lost that game seven and didn’t deserve to be here. That being said, they are much better than this Dallas team and to lose close game after close game only to get blown out on their home floor in an elimination game is pitiful. Anthony Edwards had his moments but he is just not that guy yet. He’s a very good player but to put him into Tatum and Luka conversations let alone Michael frickin’ Jordan conversations is way too soon. People seriously said that this guy was the next GOAT because of six playoff games. It was just ridiculous. Jaden McDaniels was too inconsistent and Rudy Gobert carried the defense to the point that when he left the floor, Minnesota collapsed. Their next move is obviously moving Karl-Anthony Towns for a wing, which while somewhat drastic, is honestly what they need. Long live the greatest team that never was.

On the other side, we are witnessing a metamorphosis of a team. PJ Washington has played well enough for two weeks to call what the Mavericks have a big three. While the Thunder series was really his starring role, he was good enough against Minnesota to get a mention for his defense and spacing ability. However, this series was more about Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. While he was terrible against the Thunder, Kyrie Irving used the messy Wolves’ defense to his advantage in this series and was the scoring threat that we saw for Cleveland all those years ago. While Luka is also good at isolation scoring, I think that Kyrie’s ability to get a bucket when they really needed it was a big difference in this series. While the Wolves didn’t have the personnel to cover him, his ability to do this is still welcome. On the Luka angle, this was a series in which he established himself as a clear alpha. When staring down the new starboy of the league with a finals trip on the line, he did not blink and it was awesome to watch. When Luka is hitting shots like he did in the last game of this series, he’s really fun to watch. Luka took over with his isolation scoring and created so much gravity that some of the others were able to get involved but not to a great extent. A lot of Dallas’ playmaking is isolation basketball but with Luka and Kyrie, it’s good enough to work. Honestly, I was much more impressed with their defense than their offense. They have been so good in the paint that teams just struggle to drive against them. Anthony Edwards was stifled in this series in part because he was unable to make a layup. The Lively, Gafford, Derrick Jones Jr. combination defensively is just as impressive as Luka and Kyrie offensively. They weren’t perfect in this series but they were good enough to beat a messy and discombobulated Timberwolves team. Dallas impressed me but it was more about Minnesota flaming out.

Finals Prediction

(1) Boston Celtics vs (5) Dallas Mavericks

My Prediction: Boston in 5

MVP Prediction: Jayson Tatum

BOS X-Factor: Jrue Holiday

DAL X-Factor: Derrick Jones Jr.

Here we are. I’m not putting out any long-winded Celtics piece, there is no moment in history or significance paragraph, there is only one more team in the way of Celtics’ history. These Celtics are objectively one of the best ten teams in basketball history, at least through the first three rounds. This series is not about the matchup or the Mavericks but about the monumental expectations of the Boston Celtics. This is the series that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can use to actually put themselves on the Hall of Fame track that they are supposedly on. With a win, Al Horford would cement a legendary career, especially with the Celtics. However, to get there, the Celtics need to execute against a team that they dominated in the regular season. A bit like 2022, the regular season expectations have put the Celtics ahead of an opponent that they could easily overlook. The difference this year is that the Celtics have seemingly met those expectations and their opponent is not a dynasty facing down a young, happy-go-lucky group. Instead, most of the Celtics have been here before and the Mavericks are the team consisting of mostly young players who mostly haven’t been there before. The Mavericks also aren’t as good as those Warriors and these Celtics are much better than the 2022 team. Yet, the Celtics are doubted. Personally, these narratives that the Celtics can’t close are lazy considering how well they did it against Indiana and how clinical they’ve been all year. Is it a bad thing that they don’t play many close games because they blow good teams out? I don’t think so. Narratives aside, the star power in this series is as strong as any because in addition to the Celtics’ stars, the Mavericks boast a duo that is nothing to scoff at with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic playing starring roles for the Western Conference champions. 

Into the basketball for this series, the Mavs have relied not just on their prolific two-man offense but also on the best defense in the league since mid-March. It was on full display against a messy Timberwolves team and the defense will be much needed against the star-studded Celtics. However, their defense is reliant on trapping and driving guys toward their height in the paint, which doesn’t work against teams with a lot of size and shooting, which the Celtics have, and the Wolves and Thunder didn’t. The Celtics can also put the Mavericks’ bigs on the perimeter where they aren’t comfortable and Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis pose huge matchup problems that the Mavericks haven’t proven they can solve. Yes, they stopped Karl-Anthony Towns but he is less than aggressive when put under pressure and Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis have shown that they have a strong mentality through tough defenses, which the other stretch bigs they’ve played don’t have. The Celtics' bigs and wings pose massive matchup problems defensively for Dallas. Aside from Horford and Porzingis, how do the Mavericks plan to stop Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown? Both guys are coming off of an amazing series against the Pacers and torched Dallas all year. At face value, outside of Derrick Jones Jr and the effort of the undersized Josh Green, who can guard those two? The answer is probably a more collective effort between doubles and help in the middle but in the Finals, you need an individual gameplan, which Dallas doesn’t have. The Celtics can sic Jrue Holiday and each one of the Jays on Irving and Doncic respectfully but the Mavericks cannot do the same for Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis. The Celtics’ offense will be too much for a Dallas defense that has been on a bit of a heater over the past few months but hasn’t faced a test like Boston yet. Offensively, Dallas doesn’t run enough clean sets and often turns to Doncic and Irving trading isolation, something that the Celtics are incorrectly criticized for doing. The Mavs have gotten solid offensive output out of Jones Jr., Washington, and even some Jaden Hardy but lack the offensive depth, even with Luka and Kyrie, to be able to eat one of those two having an off-night, which Irving is prone to in Boston. For the Celtics, they have as many offensive options as types of food in the arena. From Tatum and Brown to White and Holiday and not even counting Porzingis and Horford yet, these Celtics are ridiculously deep. The Celtics have proven that they can run all sorts of plays and sets with different personnel given the amount of injuries that they've had to play through this season. The Celtics have averaged more assists and a better turnover percentage than the Mavs and a lot of that is because of their superior ball movement and more efficient play. Given how Boston’s offense has operated in the postseason, I think that Jayson Tatum being the center of their offense helps them because of his ability to do anything within the offense. He’s been a great scorer, rebounder, playmaker, and his gravity and passing out of double teams has been top-tier. At the end of the day, I trust Tatum and his collective supporting cast more than Kyrie and Luka by themselves. The Celtics have the record, the experience, and all of the tools to get it done. For the second time in three years, it’s time to get it done. Give me the Celtics in five games. See you all for the Finals recap and offseason preview.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

Twitter - @TheSatBlues