Closing Time, One Last Call... -- 2023-24 NBA Playoffs Round Two Recap and Conference Finals Preview
The NBA playoffs, much like the life of current college seniors like myself, are a bit of a blur. Just a week ago, it felt like we already knew what the Conference Finals matchups would be and that this year’s playoffs would be predictable and boring, much like last year. However, much like my life of five graduation ceremonies in three different cities over a week, things went a little sideways. As we slowly wind down the playoffs and get serious about the championship, let’s recap a crazy second round and predict what might happen in the conference finals.
Second Round Recap
(1) Boston Celtics vs (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
Winner: Boston in 5
My Prediction: Boston in 5
As soon as I heard what this matchup would be, I knew it wouldn’t be a long series. Injuries aside, the Cavs just lacked the depth and scoring to compete with Boston. Like in the Miami series, it took a terrible Boston shooting night and a fantastic scoring night from all five of Cleveland’s starters to squeak out a win in Game 2. Other than that one night, the Celtics went rolling right along without Kristaps Porzingis. Al Horford, while struggling, had a fantastic game five to put Cleveland away. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White seemingly switched abilities for two games before both of them were offensively capable to close out the series. While the “others” were fantastic, this matchup was really about Jayson Tatum using the last three games of the series to return to form. The Celtics will need him to be at his best to win the title and they got it in this series. We’ve reached the point of the postseason where he’s realized that he can just be a buzzsaw and cut through everyone.
The Celtics defense was a bit vulnerable to Evan Mobley but showed the ability to shut down lead guards with ease. Looking ahead to the rest of the bracket, the only offensive big man left is Karl-Anthony Towns, who has never been much of an issue for Al Horford let alone once Porzingis is back. The Celtics are built for a championship run and this series just showed that even more. There isn’t much to take away when things go exactly as predicted.
(2) New York Knicks vs (6) Indiana Pacers
Winner: Indiana in 7
My Prediction: Indiana in 7
This series was basically the injury bowl and really just for one side. Yeah, Tyrese Haliburton got a knock here and there, but the Knicks lost half of the roster and their best player and took it to seven. In a way, it’s an injustice that the Knicks lost the series but it also makes for a much more entertaining conference finals, so I’m not mad at the result. This series was less about the battle of the guards and more about Donte DiVincenzo versus Pascal Siakam. It seemed like the random role players were more key than anyone in this series and I couldn’t take much away from either team other than that the Knicks probably would have won in five or six games if they were healthy.
For Indiana, this series was about their offensive creativity and ability to push the pace. Defense wasn’t really in their game plan, but when Siakam and Haliburton were able to expose mismatches, they were super effective. Myles Turner also continues to show why he is one of the most underrated players in the league and can anchor a team’s defense, no matter how poor that defense may seem. It demonstrated their ability to persevere through poor officiating and series deficits. Winning at home will continue to be key for them as apart from game seven, they were terrible on the road. I want to see more defense on the perimeter from them going forward and they aren’t a real contender, but they did make a series against Jalen Brunson and the Knicks’ bench really fun, so I’m proud of them. Their prize is getting walloped by the Celtics.
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Dallas Mavericks
Winner: Dallas in 6
My Prediction: Dallas in 6
This series was my victory lap as far as basketball analysis goes. In short, I told you so. I told all of you that Dallas would win this series because Oklahoma City lacks experience and size and I was told that I was dumb and their “team play” and “perimeter scoring” would overpower the best player and third-best player in the series and I turned out to be right. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an excellent playmaker, but in a playoff whistle and environment, he still needs a lot of growth. As a scorer, he seems to cap out in the thirties, which for a team without an elite second scorer, is a huge problem. PJ Washington was also a huge issue defensively for the Thunder and their lack of versatile big men came to bite them in the back. Chet Holmgren was asked to do too much on either side for a rookie and while I believe in him to become a superstar, it’s too soon right now. Jalen Williams was also notably bad for extended stretches when the Thunder really needed another scorer. The solution from the outside looking in is to trade young pieces and pick for a true second star, but knowing how Sam Presti does business, it’ll probably be another year of the same core.
For Dallas, it’s a remarkable achievement, but really one that they stumbled into. Luka was never consistently good and Kyrie struggled for most of the series. The Mavericks won from flukey role-player production and good defense. PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., and Daniel Gafford were amazing in this series and took most of the pressure off Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. I don’t know what’ll happen going forward or how they’ll attack the offseason, but this series showed just how far experience and good role players can take you. The Mavs proved me right and I am very proud of them for that.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (3) Minnesota Timberwolves
Winner: Minnesota in 7
My Prediction: Denver in 7
This was the worst series to watch out of any of them. The series went seven, but they essentially just traded blowouts until we saw one of the worst collapses by a defending champion of all time in game seven. I’m a bit split because as a Celtics fan, I’d rather play the Wolves, but as a writer, I picked the Nuggets. However, honestly, Minnesota deserved it more. Denver let their foot off the gas too much and if going down by at least 15 in every game against a terrible Lakers team wasn’t enough of a sign, the first two games of this series were. The Nuggets punched back in the middle of the series and should have won game seven, but this series showed Denver’s biggest problem and it’s how they have been too relaxed since winning the championship. Jamal Murray, while possibly injured, was not good enough. The role players were not good enough and despite the stat line, Nikola Jokic was not good enough. They never met the intensity of the Timberwolves and their lack of care and arrogance that they would get to the Finals again are why they lost. Given how cocky and annoying they have been since winning it all against a subpar Miami Heat team, they deserve this. Nobody will miss them and the playoffs are better without them.
For Minnesota, this marks a significant turning point. They have gotten as far as they have in twenty years and look poised to go even further. While he tailed off in a major way towards the end of the series, Anthony Edwards was good enough to get it done. Along with Ant-Man, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and most notably Karl-Anthony Towns were fantastic against Denver. We’ll see if they can continue to rise to another level in the Conference Finals, but regardless, the outcome of this series was very impressive for Minnesota.
Conference Finals Preview
(1) Boston Celtics vs (6) Indiana Pacers
My Prediction: Boston in 5
MVP Prediction: Jayson Tatum
BOS X-Factor: Jrue Holiday
IND X-Factor: Aaron Nesmith
In a shocking turn of events, the Boston Celtics are riding a dominant first two rounds into the Conference Finals. If you watch ESPN or listen to mainstream national media, that’s what you would think about the Boston Celtics. They dominated everybody that they played this year, but because they don’t have anybody consistently scoring forty and managed to lose one game in each of the first two rounds, the Celtics aren’t very good. Hell, so-called basketball “experts” like Bobby Marks actually picked the Pacers to win this series in six games, no less. The hate towards the Celtics inevitably winning a title has never been bigger in the media than it is right now. The Celtics have consistently played great basketball and found different ways to win against teams that present different challenges. With Indiana, it’s a mix of challenges that they have already overcome. They are set to face a team powered by a lead guard like Cleveland was and have to play a versatile big whom the opponent runs a lot of the offense through like Miami. In both of those series, they won dominantly, and given how those two players, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam probably aren’t as good as Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell and Miami’s Bam Adebayo, the Celtics won’t have a problem with the Pacers. Also given how small the Pacers’ wing defenders are, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should be able to eat against this defense. Yeah, the Pacers beat them twice, but both losses come with context. One was a ridiculous Haliburton game in the In-Season Tournament and the other was when Boston had been so far ahead of everyone that they stopped caring about the regular season. The Celtics are locked in and I expect no less than dominance.
For Indiana, this series will hinge on their two stars in Haliburton and Siakam, but more so on the production of role players like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, and Myles Turner. The Pacers will need wing defense and Nesmith will probably take the main assignment on Jayson Tatum and the size difference and history between them speaks for itself. Indiana is going to need generationally excellent defensive performances to have a chance in this series and they don’t have the personnel to execute that. Compared to a healthy Knicks or Sixers team, the Pacers were a much better matchup for Boston out of the other side of the bracket. For Boston, they’ll need their defensive guards to step up again and shut down Tyrese Haliburton like they were somewhat unable to do to Donovan Mitchell. Jrue Holiday has the size and skills to do so and with his offensive production ticking up, he’ll be key against the Pacers. In the end, the Celtics are just far better as a whole than Indiana and given the tendency of this Celtics team to drop one random game, I’ll take the Celtics in a gentleman’s sweep to get back to the NBA Finals.
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (5) Dallas Mavericks
My Prediction: Minnesota in 6
MVP Prediction: Anthony Edwards
MIN X-Factor: Jaden McDaniels
DAL X-Factor: Kyrie Irving
Both of these teams are probably surprised to be here. Both of these teams got stiffed by the bracket, but both persevered. The Mavericks had to get through both the Clippers and Thunder and have seen production from key role players for twelve straight games as they roll into the conference finals with nothing to lose. The Timberwolves are riding a high after taking out KD, Booker, and Jokic in back-to-back rounds. While both Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards have been fairly inconsistent for their standards, both have been good enough to propel their teams this far. For Minnesota it’s been defense and for Dallas it’s been an explosive offense. This series is truly an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. In this case, I feel more confident in the immovable object which is the Minnesota Timberwolves because of a stifling defense and the inconsistency of Kyrie Irving. To be frank, to have any chance in this series, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have to be at their absolute best, which Kyrie Irving has not been. 10-point and 11-assist nights won’t be passable against Minnesota and Luka won’t be able to have 5 for 20 shooting nights facing a team that is this intense and this hot. The path for Dallas is through their stars and they’ll have to live and die through those two.
For Minnesota, it’s a lot easier. They have the better defense, more complete offense, and better coach. If they can play the way that they have been for two rounds, they’ll get to their first NBA Finals in franchise history. However, as we’ve seen over the past few decades of NBA basketball, that’s easier said than done. This series will be the test to see if Minnesota is a real contender or just a team that’s shining too early. I don’t expect either of these teams to beat the Celtics if they’re healthy, but putting up a good fight is the first step to contention. Neither of these teams has a lot to lose, but both have a ton to gain by winning this series.
In a more tactical sense, this series hangs on the rebounding battle more than anything. Both of these teams shoot a lot of threes and both like to push the pace. That starts with getting boards via Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Luka Doncic, Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, Dereck Lively, and Naz Reid. Whoever can push the pace more and get easy layups as opposed to having to go at clogged paints will ultimately win the day. In addition to the rebounding, the ball pressure will be huge in this series and that starts with Jaden McDaniels. He’ll need to hound Luka and Kyrie enough to slow them down and make them give up the ball to less capable scorers. On Dallas’ side, that starts with both Kyrie and a rejuvenated Dante Exum. They’ll need to get after Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards enough to at least make them feel pressured. This series will undoubtedly be more interesting and difficult to predict, but I think that Minnesota is just too good right now and their defense will be enough to stop a hobbled Luka Doncic in his path. If I’m right, we’ll get the first KG-bowl in the Finals and I am here for it.
Conclusion and Power Rankings
In the last round, I was nearly perfect with my predictions down to the game and if not for the Nuggets providing the sports world with one of the biggest chokes of all time, I would have been. While I’m not as confident about my picks by game in this round, I am confident with my ultimate winners. Hopefully, my insight has provided you with a guide of what to watch for in the first conference finals without the traditional stars of the NBA’s last twenty years. The 2024 Conference Finals are truly a representation of the new era of basketball and I am absolutely here for it. Do I want the Celtics to win it all because I’m a Celtics fan? Absolutely. However, I also want them to win because a marquee matchup between either Ant and Luka versus Tatum is exactly what the game needs. It would be the Kobe and LeBron matchup that we never got. It would be basketball poetry and let’s hope that the basketball gods take some pride in what they put their pen to in this year’s playoffs. Go Sportsball!
Power Rankings
Boston Celtics
Minnesota Timberwolves
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers
Adam Zimmerman-Diaz
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