Rising from the Darkness Retreat: The 24-25 NBA Season Round-Up
Hello, old friend. Much like Zach Lowe and Joel Embiid, it’s been a while since I’ve talked or written about basketball here. While I’ve been watching the games and keeping up regularly with the NBA and all of the results, narratives, trades, and news, I have been silent in the long-form writing that I’ve become so accustomed to in the last few years.
Well, it is time to get back in the ring and write not only this piece - some thoughts on the NBA - but my playoff preview, releasing tomorrow. In the meantime, I wanted to make my awards predictions and talk about some of the things that I missed out on while I was gone. Let’s hope I haven’t lost my fastball.
What’s going on with my Celtics?
I have to start with spewing all of my thoughts on the Celtics onto this blank Google Doc before I can discuss anything else regarding the NBA. The East’s two seed, the “best starting five in the NBA”, and the most well-rounded team in the league has had quite an interesting year. In my eyes, it’s the best case scenario for a team that was due for some championship hangover. The Celtics were pretty up and down for a 60-win team for most of the season, and I think that a lot of that has been the lineup shifting and the championship hangover that comes with being a team that has put this much stress on themselves in the past few years. The Celtics used 32 different starting lineups this season, and being able to succeed in different variations of their team has been key to their success this season.
Jayson Tatum and Al Horford stick out as the two key cogs in the machine. I would throw in Derrick White, too, but his role has largely remained the same over the course of the season. For Jayson and Al, however, they have played anything from a point center to a traditional big man to, in Jayson’s case, the actual point guard of the team. Defensively, Jayson and Al have covered every position against quality teams for the entire year, and this versatility will be key going forward in a postseason run that should be tougher than last year’s championship run.
Outside of Tatum, Horford, White, and somehow Luke Kornet, the rest of the 2024-25 Celtics have been pretty inconsistent. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have been predictably in and out of the lineup, with each predictably failing to hit the minimum 65 games requirement for awards qualification. When they play, they have been up and down offensively, and for Jrue specifically, there have been times where he looks a little slower defensively, too. However, Jrue has picked it up over the final 15 games of the season, posting a top-20 defensive rating among players with at least 20 minutes per game. While defensive rating can be a poor stat carried by team success (see Nikola Jokic), the eye test backs up that Jrue Holiday has really picked it up in the past few weeks. Featuring in just 42 games this year, Porzingis has been a lock for 15-17 points in a game with the occasional outburst. For me, his defense has stuck out as a place where the Celtics look for more consistency. When filtering for Celtics lineups that have played at least 75 minutes this season, the three best defensive lineups feature Luke Kornet and Al Horford as the bigs, not Porzingis. Against teams like Cleveland and New York going forward, the Celtics might lean away from KP, which could lean into how they operate this summer.
Jaylen could have an entire piece on himself, but I will leave it to just this paragraph for now. After the eighth year of watching him, being one of the few people cheering when we drafted him, having attended his NBA preseason debut, NBA regular season debut, NBA playoff debut, and NBA Finals debut, I can safely say that I think we’re heading towards the end. Jayson Tatum has ascended to a point where Jaylen does more damage than good to the team when he’s on the floor. With the amount of great and expensive players available this offseason, I think it’s time to move on. For the first time in a few years, Jaylen has seemingly regressed this year. The turnovers are back, the playmaking is inconsistent at best, and his pace seems way down. Given that he is getting knee injections right before the playoffs, if the Celtics can’t get it done this year, I wouldn’t mind exploring moving on. Look, he is an all-time great Celtic and one of my favorite players, but sometimes you have to know when it’s time. We knew with Pierce, we knew with KG, we knew with Rondo, and we knew with Isaiah Thomas. I think that we should start to think about whether or not it’s time with Jaylen. I’m not calling to trade him, but let’s pause and take a good look at what this team plays like without him as a big part of the lineup in a playoff setting.
As a whole, the Celtics are still great and still the top contenders in the East. The crown is heavy, and they have taken some blows this year, but they could definitely have a good run at another championship. While I’m not as confident as last year, mainly because of the field, I still believe that they could do it again. This time they’ll need to be carried by Tatum even more than last year, and their health will need to be more consistent than last year. It’s not guaranteed this year, but if they really want this one, they can take it.
The teams I’m feeling that nobody is talking about
I’m not a fan of being dragged out by long articles talking about why they believe something that they’ll explain in three words in about five minutes of reading (I just wrote a rambling page on the Celtics), so I’ll just tell you - I’m really liking the Clippers and Rockets.
Like the Timberwolves last year, this is mostly built on defense. The Clippers have been the third-best defense in the league this season and, since the All-Star break, have the fourth-best net rating in the NBA. The difference? Kawhi Leonard appears to be back. He’s only played 32 games, but most of that is due to the Clippers managing him to be healthy for this part of the season. The Clippers are 25-11 with him in the lineup, and alongside a resurgent James Harden and sneaky good depth, I think the Clippers have a legitimate shot in a wide-open Western Conference. If Kawhi Leonard stays healthy, the biggest what-if in modern NBA history, the Clippers will make at least the conference finals. Ivica Zubac is putting up 20-20s left and right, Norm Powell is somehow averaging 20, and James Harden looks like a top-7 point guard in the league. Add in a top-three defense and the best offense in the last fifteen games of the season, and you have yourself a legitimate contender. Is Paul George the ultimate Ewing theory candidate?
Why the Rockets? Sadly, Ime Udoka. I say sadly because Udoka is probably not the best person off the court. We know all too well how his time ended in Boston, but in a basketball sense, he can really coach a defense. The Rockets lack a true megastar (my Sengun propaganda aside), yet have been the two-seed in the West all year and have the fourth-best defense and sixth-best net rating in the league. They have length everywhere and the fourth-best defensive lineup of any 5-man groups to play at least 300 minutes played in the NBA, only behind OKC, Indiana, and the Clippers’ most-used lineups. Outside of the advanced stats, they have X-Factors everywhere - from Amen Thompson and Jalen Green to Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams, this just feels like a great playoff team. They’ll scrap and fight and can give any of the star-studded rosters in the West a run for their money. This team is screaming for a breakout playoff star, and it feels like it comes this year. They could be bounced in the first round or make the finals in my eyes, I’m just looking forward to seeing what shakes out. Regardless of what happens this year, their cap flexibility and wealth in picks, along with a rock-solid culture, make me very excited about what’s to come. Buy some more Amen Thompson stock now!
Apart from these two, for the season this year, I have also enjoyed watching the:
San Antonio Spurs: Wemby is very fun, and Steph Castle is my guy.
Detroit Pistons: Dawgs are back? Cade is very, very good.
Portland Trail Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson are very close - please build around them.
Golden State Warriors: Jimmy and Draymond are 10/10 entertainment.
The rest of my basketball thoughts before Awards predictions
I was trying to keep this short because I have a playoff preview coming tomorrow, but I really need to get these thoughts off and couldn’t structure it properly - so here’s some more unstructured NBA rambling.
The Luka trade was fucking crazy. Like seriously, is Nico Harrison that stupid? Look, I’m not a Luka fan and I would’ve traded him too, but to not try and get Giannis or Devin Booker? To not call a team like Houston or Orlando to recoup draft assets and young players? To not even get Austin Reaves? It was just a bad trade. I don’t think that the Lakers are guaranteed to be successful, but the Mavericks are almost certain to be a failure. I’m glad that huge sports moments that transcend sports are still happening in basketball, but I hate that it had to benefit the Lakers..
What the hell is happening in Denver? I know that their general manager was pretty much a dead man walking, but the firing of Mike Malone and the fall off of Jamal Murray this season have been two huge red flags for what they can be going forward. They’ll almost certainly be out of the playoffs before the conference finals, and given that they have the best player in the world and one of the three best offensive players of the century, it really feels like they are bottling this. To me, Jokic seems like he’ll be a Laker when he hits free agency in two years, and the Nuggets have until then to do everything they can to salvage this situation. Remember when everybody said they’d be a dynasty for years to come? That was under two years ago.
Am I the only one who isn’t that huge on the Cavs anymore? There were about three weeks in February when I thought that this team could potentially walk into the conference finals as heavy favorites, but in the last few weeks, combined with how they’ve played against Boston, it doesn’t seem like they should even be in the same stratosphere as the Celtics right now. In the last fifteen games, they have a bottom-half defensive rating and just the thirteenth-best net rating in the league. They are just 8-7 in the last fifteen and look painfully average. Maybe they’re just playing for nothing, and it’s a fat nothing burger of a story. However, the Celtics have “nothing to play for,” and they are 13-2 with a top-three net rating and offense with the sixth-best defense in the league. The Cavs also have struggled to defend wings and have struggled with Jayson Tatum for three straight years now. They’ve had a historic year, but I don’t have to, nor do I love them going forward. They looked painfully average over the past month and a half.
Awards Predictions
We have reached the peak; the reason I wanted to come back: the awards. These are hot take machines and my favorite part of each year. While my predictions certainly didn’t come true across the board, I got some of them right, and even the ones that I didn’t, I was pleasantly surprised. Spoiler alert: Austin Reaves and Bronny didn’t make any of my All-NBA teams.
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
32.7 PPG
6.4 APG
5 RPG
2.7 STOCKS
63.7% TS, 37.5% 3PT
Team Record at the time of writing: 67-14 (1st in the West)
HM:
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 29.8 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 10.3 APG, 2.4 STOCKS, 66.2% TS, 41.4% 3PT, 49-32 (4th in West at time of writing)
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 26.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.6 STOCKS, 58.2% TS, 34.3% 3PT, 60-21 (2nd in East at time of writing)
This isn’t baseball, and it’s not all about the stats. Yes, this is an all-time individual season from Nikola Jokic - but as I said, this is not baseball. One player can directly affect the outcomes of games at an uneven rate compared to their minutes. Shai has been the second-best player in the league, carrying the best team by a country mile to historic success. Some teams have managed to contain Jokic and his impact, but nobody has been able to shut down Shai. While Jokic carries his team, there is an element here that is somewhat empty statistics. I’m not saying he pads his stats, obviously not, but what are these stats even contributing to? Denver has been a mess against top teams, and Jokic has fallen victim to playing hero ball in games that are already so far gone. When Shai has 30-5-5, his team needs it to succeed. I look at both of their games in Boston as benchmarks for this award. The Celtics were cold against Denver, and the Nuggets kept the game close, but not because of Jokic. Jokic was given every chance in that game but was ultimately bailed out, then failed by the role players. Meanwhile, in his close game, where he was getting the best out of Jayson Tatum, Shai outduled Tatum and shut down the Garden down the stretch in a dominant clutch win. While these are just anecdotes, I think they’re very reflective of the season that each of the players had. Triple doubles and stats be damned, we are in the era of effective aura and nobody had more wins, effectiveness, and certainly aura than Shai Gilgeous Alexander. He’s not a free-throw merchant, he’s not carried by a superteam, he is the best system in the NBA. Shai is my MVP.
DPOY: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
HM:
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
For the rest of the awards that I felt weren’t that close, I’ll keep it short and sweet. This one was honestly tough. Without Victor Wembanyama eligible (would have won if he played 65 games), it feels like Mobley has been the most consistent elite defender in the league. The Cavs are dominant defensively with him on the floor, and he’s had a defensive season similar to the last few years of prime Rudy Gobert. While Draymond Green is making a late run at it, it’s just too little too late. You can’t only start trying when Jimmy Butler shows up. Good seasons from Mobley, Green, and Daniels across the board, but honestly, they’re only in consideration because Wemby is out. Shoutout to my honorable honorable mention: Isaiah Stewart.
6MOY: Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
HM:
Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers
This has been a two-man race all year, but it’ll go to the more well-known player on what most people still consider the better team. The Celtics have dealt with more guard injuries, and as a result, Pritchard has had a larger responsibility than Jerome, played more minutes, and put up better stats. In a very weak field for this award, it’ll comfortably go to Pritchard.
MIP: Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
HM:
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
It’s a damn shame that Norman Powell missed the 65 game cutoff by just a few games because he was running away with this one but I’m glad that I still get to pick Dyson Daniels for an award. He has been a league pass darling this year and has jumped off of my TV screen with his three-and-D play. He’s only shooting 34 percent, but it feels like he always comes up with the big ones. He has honestly been Atlanta’s go-to behind Trae Young and, unlike Sengun and Cunningham, didn’t have star expectations coming into the year. He almost tripled his scoring output and was the best perimeter defender in the league this year. True improvement from an unexpected player, and he represents the spirit of what the award should be.
ROTY: Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
HM: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
This, like sixth man, has kind of been a one-man show. Risacher made a compelling last-minute push, but once again, we’re just going with consistency and output. Castle has been the best rookie, making the biggest impact, and has put up the best numbers. In a weak draft class, we get a weak ROTY. What a shocker!
Clutch Player of the Year: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
HM:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Okay, okay, okay… Hear me out. Jayson Tatum has come through in every clutch moment all season and has a top-three clutch shooting percentage in NBA history. He does it in primetime, he does it at home, he does it on the road, hell - he even does it in New Orleans. Nobody has the ball in the clutch more than Tatum and it’s about damn time a non-guard won the award. Just let me have this one!
The Teams
I’ll keep these short and sweet without any explanation. By now, you know where my preferences and biases lie. For the record, the first team has been a lock since January. Hope you all enjoy the teams - see you tomorrow for the playoff preview!
All-NBA First Team:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
All-NBA Second Team:
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
All-NBA Third Team:
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
All-Defensive First Team:
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
All-Defensive Second Team:
Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers
Derrick White, Boston Celtics
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers
OG Anunoby, New York Knicks
All-Rookie First Team:
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards
Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies
All-Rookie Second Team:
Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls
Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans
Isaiah Collier, Utah Jazz
Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat
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