As Big as the Super Bowl - 2024-25 NBA Playoffs First Round Preview

After a horrible, no-good, very bad week, it has arrived: my playoff preview. Keep in mind, I’m writing this while watching the finale of the play-in games, but that shouldn’t affect much. After a year of watching, rage-tweeting, and narrative pushing, here is what I think will happen in round one of the 2024-25 NBA playoffs.

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs Miami Heat (8)

My Pick: Cavaliers in 5

CLE X-Factor: Evan Mobley

MIA X-Factor: Davion Mitchell

I’m writing this right after Miami just won a very entertaining play-in game against the disappointing Hawks. Truthfully, Cleveland should sweep them easily, but given how scrappy Miami has proven to be, I just can’t not give them a chaotic game three win in Miami. Their offense is sub-par, but their defense has been elite all season. Given how they’ve been able to contain superstars all season and how relatively hot they are entering this series, I will give them a pity game against the inexperienced Cavs. 

Miami is a tenth-seed dark horse who barely deserves to be here. Put simply, Cleveland is not. The Cavs have been the best team in the East up until about a month ago when they “fell off” to finish the year 8-7 with advanced stats right around the lower-middle of the pack. Some of that was due to some Mitchell/Mobley missed time, but it is still a concern going forward. In this series, the talent discrepancy will mask those issues. Their recent sloppiness and inconsistency are why this will go five, but won’t affect the actual outcome of the series. I picked Mobley as their X-Factor for the same reason as why I picked Davion Mitchell for Miami, and that’s because rim pressure will drive the offense in this series. Lacking a true top scorer, Miami creates a lot of its offensive leverage off drives. If Cleveland stops these drives, they’ll look like the top defense that they were for most of the year. If they don’t, we’ll get some close round one games against Miami. Davion Mitchell has been fantastic going to the hole and scoring or setting up for the Heat, and they’ll need whatever they can get next to Herro, Bam, and Wiggins.

While it’s an intriguing matchup, that’s all it is. The Heat won’t win the series and won’t take more than a close game or two. Cleveland has been written in Sharpie for round two for a few months now.

Boston Celtics (2) vs Orlando Magic (7)

My Pick: Celtics in 4

BOS X-Factor: Luke Kornet

ORL X-Factor: Anthony Black

It’s no surprise that I am taking my Celtics here, but I think it’ll be way more of a blowout than people expect. For a little perspective, the Celtics led the league in threes attempted and made by two and six, respectively. Orlando? 23rd in attempts, last in makes, and 27th in percentage. Simply by playing the way that they play, Boston should blow out the Magic. This isn’t even accounting for Jayson Tatum’s only game against the Magic this season - a 27-point blowout where he had 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists in 35 minutes while maintaining a +24. The Celtics lost by four in December without Tatum and got blown out by 20 in a game where they sat their top-six rotation players. Orlando is rolling into this game coming off a momentum-swinging blowout of the Atlanta Hawks, where they got fantastic games out of Cole Anthony and Anthony Black despite facing off against Trae Young and Dyson Daniels. 

Against Boston, Orlando will need fantastic guard play with the ball pressure that Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and even Payton Pritchard could cause them problems. Given that they rely heavily on their wings for scoring and outside shooting, they’ll need to pose some sort of threat to set up their offense and get Paolo and Franz going. If I had to pick one, Franz Wagner definitely scares me a lot less than Paolo because of his lack of strength and speed. Franz can bring it up and facilitate better than Paolo, but I just don’t see him winning a matchup against Tatum or Brown. Paolo could potentially give Orlando a game where he dominates, switches onto bigs, or has anomalous shot making, but even that isn’t enough for me to give them a game. 

For Boston, as it has been all year, Luke Kornet is the X-Factor here. Minutes with Tatum in and without Horford or Porzingis have been key for the Cs, and their top duo by net-rating, Tatum and Kornet, have held the fort down well. The Tatum-Kornet pick and roll will be key in breaking down the second-best defense in the playoffs and creating good looks both inside and out to exploit the shooting variance between the two teams. In this series, I think that Jayson Tatum will have to handle the ball a lot, as Tatum against Paolo and Franz is the only clear mismatch the Celtics can exploit offensively. Yet, because of the shooting variance and the fact that the Celtics have five of the best seven players in this series, including the best two, I think Boston sweeps. They’re coming in as the hottest team in the league, and Orlando’s greatest weakness is Boston’s greatest strength. Just not a good matchup for Orlando.

New York Knicks (3) vs Detroit Pistons (6)

My Pick: Knicks in 7

NYK X-Factor: Mitchell Robinson

DET X-Factor: Malik Beasley

This is going to be the most juiced-up series out of the eight. The rough and tough Pistons against the scrappy Knicks, is this ten years ago? I’m taking New York, but I really hate this series for them. For maybe the most injury-prone team in the playoffs outside of the Clippers, a matchup against the team leading the league in fights was not an ideal draw. It’s not a matter of if one of Anunoby, Bridges, or Robinson goes down, but when. That’s not me rooting on injury either - I hope they stay healthy - but for three players who have an illustrated history of acute ligament injuries, all playing 40 minutes per game, against this Pistons team, it doesn’t look great. 

From Detroit’s perspective, they have nothing to lose. Last year, they were the worst team in the league with a horrible defense. This year, they’ve channelled the spirit of the 2004 Pistons, cruising to a top-10 defense and the 12th-best net rating in the league. Coming from where they were last year, it’s impressive. They’ll need guys like Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley to support Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren to have a chance in this series. Other energy bench guys like Dennis Schoeder and Ausar Thompson will also be key as the Pistons attack with a win-by-committee approach. Choosing just one X-Factor was tough, but I went with Beasley because he’s the best offensive player of the depth and has had huge three-point shooting games for them this year. Given Cade alone probably isn’t enough to keep up with Brunson, KAT, and Bridges, they’ll need as much support as they can get. There has been a slight production fall-off offensively ever since Jaden Ivey was sidelined with a broken leg in January. To keep it close with New York offensively, they’ll need to score with depth, and I think they can.

Despite my hope for Detroit, I’m taking the Knicks. To match their size, they’ll need Mitchell Robinson to produce in his return to the lineup. They also need him, assuming they win, against the mighty Celtics in round two, so this series functions as a great physicality warm-up for him. Outside of Robinson, KAT and Bridges will need to be big on the scoring front, considering how Brunson and Cade will cancel each other out, the “others” will need to step up and win the battle. In the end, I think the Knicks just have too much depth, and a game seven at MSG has a lot of “weird role player scores 30” potential. I honestly think it’s a coin toss, but I think it will eventually come up Knicks.

Indiana Pacers (4) vs Milwaukee Bucks (5)

My Pick: Pacers in 6

IND X-Factor: Andrew Nembhard

MIL X-Factor: Kevin Porter Jr.

In between me thinking about this series with regards to picking a winner and the series beginning, the news broke that Damian Lillard will be available to play the latter half of this series. This changes nothing for me. These teams are basically equal in pace and offensive rating, but my gripe with Milwaukee is an overreliance on Giannis. He could end up averaging 50 points per game in this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised, yet I don’t think that’s enough. One guy can beat a bad team in the first round, but Indiana isn’t any other team. The Pacers already beat the Bucks last season, and the Bucks’ roster got notably worse from last year, with the Middleton-Kuzma swap already being a dud for them. If there’s any solace, terrible human being Kevin Porter Jr. has been very good offensively down the stretch for them. He and Giannis aren’t enough, though, and Damian Lillard hasn’t played in months, so what is he giving you? In my eyes, the Bucks are a complete mystery bag, and the Pacers have a true identity. The numbers on this series are pretty close, but I know what I’m getting with Indiana.

The Pacers will rely on the Haliburton-Siakam combo, with Andrew Nembhard pitching in on offense with they hit a lull. If Haliburton isn’t having a good game, there’s at least something else to fall back on. If Giannis doesn’t play ten out of ten basketball, how will Milwaukee survive? That’s the difference here. A lot has happened to each of these teams since last season, but that won’t change the result of their first-round matchup. Give me Indiana.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

My Pick: Thunder in 6

OKC X-Factor: Isaiah Hartenstein 

MEM X-Factor: Santi Aldama

This will be closer than people think. Memphis definitely has a ceiling to how dangerous they can be, but the Thunder need to take their lumps in the playoffs, and Memphis will punish you for sloppy mistakes and inexperience. Oklahoma City has still been the best team all year, and they’ll roll into this series with the likely MVP. I still think that Memphis can win a few games off of them. Memphis is very comfortable in tough environments and could potentially steal a game in Oklahoma. Even so, OKC is too damn good. This is the best team in the dance and although their inexperience might cost them a few games in this series, it won’t affect them until later rounds.

The key to winning this series for OKC will be getting Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey in foul trouble, and that starts and ends with Isaiah Hartenstein. He’ll have to rumble inside with those two and needs to help Shai draw fouls on both of them to force Memphis to play small and speed them up. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will also be key for obvious reasons, but I have my eyes on Cason Wallace for this series. Memphis has the tendency to leave the corner three available, and nobody cashes in more than Wallace. On the other side of the ball, I expect Lu Dort to coax at least three rage-enduced technicals out of the Grizzlies - his defense is that damn good.

For Memphis, Ja Morant’s electric scoring runs should be able to fuel them at home. Guys like Desmond Bane, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Santi Aldama have all benefited massively from the attention he attracts. I highlighted Aldama because of his ability to play the forward positions and stretch out the bigs. Memphis will need to make a ton of threes to beat OKC and Aldama will have to be on point for any games that Memphis may pick up. More key and necessary will be JJJ staying out of foul trouble and Desmond Bane shaking off Lu Dort to give Ja support in his battle against Shai. I’m glad this is the matchup we got, not because it’ll have much playoff consequence, but because it’ll be fun. Go sportsball!

Houston Rockets (2) vs Golden State Warriors (7)

My Pick: Rockets in 6

HOU X-Factor: Amen Thompson

GSW X-Factor: Quinten Post

Am I the only one with eyes? People are acting like the seeding is reversed in this series, so let me remind you all that Houston is the 52-win team with the top-5 defense and league-leading rebounding numbers. On that topic, rebounding and size are why I have Houston taking this series home. While Golden State has the best player in the series, maybe even two best, their lack of size and inability to match Houston’s depth is why I’m taking the Rockets here. Amen Thompson did the best job of anybody on Stephen Curry this season and is a big reason why the Rockets won their only recent matchup (3 GS wins before the All-Star break). Past Thompson, the Rockets have Brooks, Van Fleet, and big guards galore to throw at Curry and even more wings to throw at Butler. Curry can shoot them into a few wins, but Houston is a machine right now. Ime Udoka has coached this team into the masterpiece he was working with in Boston. They don’t have Jayson Tatum, but they do have Jabari Smith and Tari Eason. What they lack in offensive starpower, they make up for with veteran defensive presence. 

While it might not seem like Houston has any big-time players, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have credible All-NBA campaigns this year (Sengun more so than Green) and have been a lethal one-two punch for the West’s two seed. While Thompson is the X-Factor for his defense on Curry and ability to push the pace against slower, older teams, Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun have just as valid cases. The Warriors have nobody to stop Sengun, and with Adams out there with he will get killed on the boards by the best rebounding and offensive rebounding team in the league. That big lineup has caused problems for all of the big-time teams in the West, including OKC and Golden State, and the Warriors give me no reason that they can survive it either. 

This deficiency is why the Boston College product, Quinten Post, is so important for the Warriors. He’s been an excellent stretch big for the Warriors this year, and they will need him to compete inside to have a chance at counteracting the Rockets’ size and perimeter defense to create second chances for Butler and Curry. Post will not only provide leverage on the glass but also stretching ability to keep the Houston bigs out of the paint. Playing a guy like Jonathan Kuminga could also be helpful on the glass for Golden State, but he’s been exiled from the rotation, which makes Post that much more important. It’s easy to talk about Curry, Butler, and Draymond in this series, but Post and their thin big man depth is just as key in this series.

Despite the star power and championship experience, I’m just taking the better team. Curry and Butler be damned, give me Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. Clutch City is back!

Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (6)

My Pick: Timberwolves in 6

LAL X-Factor: Jaxson Hayes

MIN X-Factor: Naz Reid (Duh, who else?)

Different series, same story. The Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but lack defensive seriousness and any size. Against the biggest team in the playoffs, who also happen to employ Anthony Edwards, I’m rolling with the size. The Timberwolves finished the year with a defense ranked eleven spots higher than LA, and the Lakers have the same problem as last year: that they’re a one-trick pony. We know that they have a Luka and LeBron iso that they use to try and set up lobs at the rim, and they’ll run off-ball screen action for Austin Reaves. That’s it! The lobs don’t work against the Wolves’ defense, headlined by Gobert, McDaniels, and Reid, and Minnesota’s perimeter defense is just as good. With Minnesota’s improved depth and a huge chip on Anthony Edwards’ shoulder, I love Minnesota as the upset candidates in the first round.

Minnesota is an energy pick. Yes, there are legitimate basketball reasons to pick Minnesota. Their defense, their rebound, and their variation in how they generate offense. However, have we considered the vibes? This team has some aura and energy about it, and I love it. They want you to count them out, they want to prove you wrong, and I think they will. Minnesota did the same thing last year and I see no reason to see why they can’t do it again. The Wolves also have a massive home-court advantage, considering how rowdy it gets at Target Center and how quiet the “Crypto dot com Arena” is. Minnesota wins in the basketball sense and the vibes sense. Paul Reed, Willis Reed, Naz Reid, Wolves in six.

The Lakers don’t suck for a three-seed in this Western Conference, but they definitely aren’t the third-best team. They have a ton of issues masked by their top-two players and as we’ve learned from teams like the 2023 Phoenix Suns, 2024 Denver Nuggets, and the 2024 Los Angeles Lakers, the top-two superstar-level players don’t mask serious problems in the playoffs. If you’re relying on Jaxson Hayes of all people to play at an elite level to win games, you aren’t a serious team. I don’t care that they have LeBron James and Luka Doncic; Austin Reaves does not make up for having no depth. Try again next year, LA.

Denver Nuggets (4) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)

My Pick: Clippers in 5

DEN X-Factor: Christian Braun

LAC X-Factor: Ivica Zubac

The Nuggets are a dead team walking. Who is their coach? When is the last time that Jamal Murray played like a $50 million player? Who is the seventh man in the rotation? The fact that none of these questions have good answers is why I don’t give Denver a chance here. To me, all they have is Jokic. That is a lot, but it’s not enough, especially against a team as good as the Clippers. I’m not just picking LA because Denver has been so bad, but also because the Clippers have been so good. The Clippers, with Kawhi Leonard healthy, have been fantastic. Riding a James Harden All-Star and potential All-NBA season from Ivica Zubac, LA was great even before Kawhi returned. Once he did, though, it went up a level. They finally have decent depth and with the front-line guys playing this well, it’s not a stretch to say that this team could make a run at OKC.

The Clippers are built on fragile foundations but if they manage to stick up it could bear fruit, the size of which they’ve never seen. If there’s any time to go on a crazy run driven by the most injury-prone players in the league, it’s right now. I like what Norman Powell can do for their offense if he’s drawing fouls and what James Harden can do when he’s being efficient. They will ultimately live and die on Kawhi’s back, but Zubac matches up with Jokic formidably, and Harden and Powell have more firepower than Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. can provide. 

The Nuggets lack defense, depth, heart, and passion. In this vein, I think they’ll need Christian Braun to become the elite sixth man he can be to have a chance against one of the hottest teams in the league. Murray hasn’t been right, MPJ will have Kawhi to deal with, and Jokic will already be having a hard time against Zubac. Offensively, Braun becomes the odd man out to provide anything for Denver. I personally don’t think he can, which is part of the reason that I’m predicting such a blowout, but he’s the Nuggets' only hope at depth scoring, so they better hope he can produce. Jokic will get them a game and nothing more. Is this the Clippers’ year? It sure is shaping up to be.

Conclusion and Late Predictions

These predictions will almost certainly not be perfectly correct, but I hope that my basketball knowledge, combined with my vibes assessment, has given a decent snapshot of what could happen in this year’s first round. I’m excited for what’s to come and how we have so many close series this time around. Although I only predicted one game seven, I think there are legitimate cases for about five. I think that there will be one crazy upset, two series that are even more dominant and one-sided than we think, and somebody is dropping 50 points. These are all of my predictions and I’m sticking to them. Let’s play some ball!

Adam Zimmerman Diaz

@TheSatBlues