Intensity, Pettiness, and the New York Media Cycle -- 2023-24 NBA Playoffs Round One Recap and Round Two Preview Part 1

 

        What a first round. We knew that the matchups would be good, but damn, that was some of the best basketball in the last few years. Ironically, the drama has come from the series that were expected to be blowouts. Very few first-round series were not worth a deeper dive, but in preparation for the second round, I’ll recap the first-round series that are finished and preview the different second-round series that are set to kick off this weekend. Essentially, if you’re here for the Celtics round two stuff or anything Magic and Cavs related, that’ll be in part two. 

‘

First Round Recap

(1) Boston Celtics vs (8) Miami Heat

Winner: Boston in 5

My Prediction: Boston in 4

In the only part of this piece that’ll be solely about the Boston Celtics, this series, as expected was about Boston's dominance and a symbolic end to the Jimmy-era in Miami. Even though he didn’t play, this series was all about Jimmy Butler. From his social media posts to his mid-game interviews, the symbolism of the death of a troll was clear in this series. The Celtics, apart from one of the most flukey shooting games ever, completely dominated this series. Outside of that outlier of a game two, this series was never close. With my X-Factors from my preview, I ended up being right about Jaime Jaquez, as he was the one keeping Miami around in a lot of these games. Albeit, “around” meant down by 12, Jaquez still showed that he’ll be a reliable top role player for years to come. Other than Jaquez there weren’t many positives for Miami. Nikola Jovic was solid at times, but still looked very shaky under pressure. Delon Wright had moments, but he’s a veteran mercenary who isn’t guaranteed to be around for much longer. Outside of the good role guys, there was nothing for the Heat. Bam was ineffective at best and in reality was not at all impactful, and Tyler Herro was a ghost for 90 percent of the series. Coach Spo was trying his best to get everything he could out of this depleted group, but even if Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier were in the lineup, that probably wouldn’t have saved them. The offense was dead and Boston’s offense was too good for anything the Heat wanted to try on defense.

Even if Tatum and Brown struggled, the Celtics depth is just too good to make it matter. I said that Jrue Holiday would be the X-Factor in this series and although his defense was, the Celtics most important non-All-Star was undoubtedly Derrick White. He went crazy in the final two games against Miami, averaging 31.5 points per game on 59/52/80 splits with a plus/minus of plus 27. The Heat’s defensive game plan was to overload on Jayson Tatum which left opportunities open for everyone else to have a moment throughout the series and White took advantage. Honestly, there isn’t much I can say about the Celtics that is deeper than just calling them dominant. Even without Porzingis for a few weeks, the Celtics are still head and shoulders above everyone else in the Eastern Conference. They sometimes lapse and stop trying when they’re up a lot, but that’s a good problem to have to solve. It’s a team that’s been around the block and should continue to dominate. One of the most hyped-up series ended up being relatively boring, even for Celtics fans.

(2) New York Knicks vs (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Winner: New York in 6

My Prediction: New York in 7

This series had the sauce. Like the Kendrick-Drake beef, the jabs just kept coming until the predictable kill shot finally hit. The Knicks and Sixers tried to hand each other each game for a week and a half and in the end, the greater of the two chokers ended up choking the hardest. As much as this series was about the dominance of the Knicks’ role players, the Sixers inability to close games, and the ascension of Tyrese Maxey, it was really about basketball as a whole. The sport needed something like this. It had been too long since we had true hate and vitriol in a playoff series between two gigantic markets. There were multiple media rounds by players making predictions for the series, complaints about the referees, and prominent media figures taking sides in a rivalry that didn’t really exist before this series. Really, it’s a testament to how cocky Knicks fans are and how tortured Philadelphia’s fanbase is. The Knicks franchise is incapable of being humble despite being one of the biggest losers in the last 50 years of the NBA and their fans and players reflect that. The shit-talking in this series was on another level. Honestly, I’m shocked that nobody got thrown out of any games. 

For the Knicks, the entire offense was pretty much Jalen Brunson and whichever role player wanted to have a 20-point night. I don’t know how sustainable that is, but for the Knicks, it was enough to get them by a Sixers team that was mid-collapse. Philly, meanwhile, was all over the place. Other than Tyrese Maxey, there was no reliable performer for them. Embiid wasn’t even necessarily that bad, but he was way too injured and unreliable in the fourth quarter for his box scores to mean anything. Tobias Harris was predictably awful and Nick Nurse pushing Maxey and Embiid’s minutes to the limit was a failure in tactical perspective. Coming in, I knew the series would be a mess, but even I didn’t expect it to be this messy. The Sixers will most certainly be defined by these continued losses and whatever they do in the summer as far as their legacy moving forward, but after this, it doesn’t look good. I didn’t think that either of these teams would get farther than round two anyway, but I don’t think the outcome of this matchup helped either of them. It was just a plain mess.

(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs (6) Indiana Pacers

Winner: Indiana in 6

My Prediction: Indiana in 6

This series was my Super Bowl. In a shameless victory lap, I will simply say that I called it. Not only did the Pacers get their chain back, they snatched it. This was the most predictable collapse of any team regardless of location, injuries, age, or dysfunction. The Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo probably don’t beat this Pacers team. Damian Lillard had about two and a half good games and that was enough to fool people into thinking that the Bucks had a chance. Khris Middleton was great in the absence of the two stars, but his production ended up physically breaking him down to the point where it looked like he was hobbling in game six. The Bucks’ role players weren’t even that bad, but they didn’t have enough firepower to compete with one of the better offenses left in the playoffs. The Bucks looked old and they’re only going to get older. Questions are being lightly thrown around non-mainstream basketball circles about the Bucks, but they have to be asked. Namely, is this the beginning of the end of the Giannis era in Milwaukee?

For Indiana, it’s the culmination of one of the best surprise rises of this season. The Bucks were definitely a questionable favorite coming in, but Indiana was able to use this premier matchup as a stage for their arrival, and boy did they arrive. Not only did Siakam dominate this series, but the slow ascension of Tyrese Haliburton throughout was so satisfying to watch. Each game he got better and better and it all culminated in domination in the closeout game. Another interesting factor for them moving forward from this series was Myles Turner. He’s averaging just over 19 points and 7 rebounds per game on 43.9 percent from three and if he keeps playing like that, he’s going to pose a serious matchup problem for every team in the Eastern Conference. Indiana used pace to their advantage and this series represented a lot of the current youth movement across the NBA. I don’t know if they’ll make an impact in this postseason, but Indiana is going to be very dangerous moving forward. Paul George reunion coming soon?

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8) New Orleans Pelicans

Winner: Oklahoma City in 4

My Prediction: Oklahoma City in 5

I expected dominance, but not like this. The Pelicans without Zion Williamson never had a shot, but I didn’t expect them to fold this badly. Shoutout to Trey Murphy because he was by far their best player in this series. The Pelicans' first move of the offseason will certainly be shopping Brandon Ingram because it’s become increasingly clear that they need a true point guard and that once Zion is back, Murphy can do a far more efficient version of Ingram’s offensive output anyway. Their size slightly bothered Oklahoma City, but it didn’t really matter because they didn’t have the speed or the shooting to supplement that size. Valanciunas averaged 11 rebounds per game in this series, including a 20-rebound night, but the Pelicans didn’t have any playmakers, so once Oklahoma City pushed the pace and turned it up it was over. While I learned a bit more about what I already thought about the Pelicans, I didn’t learn much about the Thunder.

There has been way too much made of the Thunder winning this series. That was not a playoff environment. OKC was expected to dominate and they did. It’s expected that young teams will have errors, but those errors are expected to come against a true challenger, which New Orleans is not. Shai was good and the supplemental players, including Jalen Williams, also performed, but I learned nothing new about them. They’re still the same one-seed from the regular season and they’re still not better than Denver, Minnesota, or Boston. They’ll be in for a challenge against Dallas, but like the Boston-Heat series, there isn’t much to take away from this series for the victor. The Pelicans didn’t try anything revolutionary and you were able to impose your will. Congrats to the Thunder on winning a series, though.

(2) Denver Nuggets vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Winner: Denver in 5

My Prediction: Denver in 6

Damn. That was painful for Lakers fans. For the rest of us? That was amazing. The Lakers were up by double digits in the majority of these games including a 20-point lead in game two, but it didn’t matter. They were only able to hang onto one of these games and blew leads in every game that they lost. They were never going to win the series, but damn, they shouldn’t have blown that many leads or been that horrible in the fourth quarter. LeBron James and Anthony Davis were great, but like the last few years for the Lakers, the downfall of the rest of the roster defined the end of the season. While the coaching was bad, it wasn’t the biggest reason that they lost. My fear for the Lakers is that the firing of Darvin Ham will be the only patchwork of the offseason. In reality, they need a complete overhaul if they’re going to run it back with LeBron and Anthony Davis.

On Denver’s side, this could be seen as business as usual, but something was clearly off with them in this series. Jokic and Murray were solid, but Jamal Murray picked up an injury and the rest of the roster would always come out really slow. They can get away with that against the Lakers, who have been blowing games all season, but against the rest of the remaining playoff field? I don’t know. Like the other top seeds, we didn’t learn much about the Nuggets more than that we might want to take a breath before declaring them the overwhelming favorites. 

(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (6) Phoenix Suns

Winner: Minnesota in 4

My Prediction: Minnesota in 6

This outcome was good for basketball. For how rich the Suns’ roster is, the team was built cheaply. No playmaking, no defense, no size, and little shooting from role players. Phoenix gambled their future for the allure of big stars and failed spectacularly. They showed how not to build a team and got the outcome that they should have gotten all along. They now have an untradable contract for a bad player, no cap space, a geriatric Kevin Durant, and one good “young” player in Devin Booker who is probably not going to be traded. There is no way to pivot with this group and it’s truly beautiful. 

On the other side, Minnesota really only made one trade and the rest of their core is homegrown. Anthony Edwards isn’t the next Jordan, but he is a great player. It’s one thing about closing out a decrepit Phoenix team, it’s another thing when it’s the defending champs. However, the Wolves were impressive in this series. Jaden McDaniels was fantastic and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was great off the bench. The biggest surprise for me in this series was how effective Minnesota’s bigs were, more specifically Rudy Gobert. Gobert finally had a good playoff series and although it wasn’t against much competition, it was still impressive how the Suns kept trying to switch onto him and kept failing to do anything of note. The probable defensive player of the year was able to show it in all facets in this series. Their only negative coming out of it was that their coach got injured and probably won’t be able to coach against Denver, which is a bigger factor than anyone is talking about. However, for the sake of this series, it was a quiet four games, where outside of game one, it never really felt like Phoenix had a chance. Very reminiscent of the 2022 series between the Nets and Celtics. Take that as you will.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Dallas Mavericks

Winner: Dallas in 6

My Prediction: Dallas in 7

This entire reflection on round one feels shallow because of how correct I was about matchups that were deemed unpredictable. The Clippers lost Kawhi, but that’s not why everything went wrong. They lacked composure and again with these older teams, looked their age. Russell Westbrook’s terrible offensive output aside, James Harden and Paul George dominated far too much of the ball and the Clippers really just missed open shots and failed to generate anything that didn’t go through Harden and George. Those two are noted as unreliable playoff performers and without a healthy Kawhi, which is always expected at this point, they never stood a chance to advance. I thought it would be one of those weird series where the Clippers would stumble into three wins but ran out of gas and I turned out to be sort of right, but instead of three wins it was two. Like the Suns, they looked dead by the time the series was over. Hopefully, Paul George leaves this team and goes to Orlando, Indiana, or Cleveland so that he can play with a more serious team with young and healthy players who won’t be so reliant on him come playoff time. The Clippers have always been a mess and this series speaks more to their franchise DNA than anything else. I have no idea who would ever be a fan of this team, but if there are any fans out there I apologize because this team is the definition of insanity. The Clippers have the same inputs and expect different results. Not necessarily happy that they didn’t win, but I’m glad that we can’t scapegoat anyone outside of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. I really hope this pushes Kawhi to actually play because he is the least reliable superstar in any sport right now. He’s never available for the playoffs and might never be again. I hope they have fun in the new arena, though. Enjoy the offseason, Clippers!

For Dallas, as unlikable as they are to most people, the basketball has been really fun to watch. Kyrie Irving has taken over their offense and for once, that’s been a good thing. Luka is hobbled by a knee injury and Dallas has truly needed this to happen, but an unexpected twist is that it looks even better than expected. Kyrie is much better at actually affecting the game and getting their bigs and wings involved than Luka was. There is a lot made out of how ineffective they both are outside of isolation scoring, but Kyrie has shown in this series that he is still an extremely effective playmaker. The isolation is still present, but there’s much more ball movement and driving and kicking. How much of this is attributed to Jason Kidd is unknown, but it’s a welcome change to their offense from how they ended the season. Kyrie made every clutch play and the Mavericks have some dogs inside from Derrick Jones Jr. to Daniel Gafford. I’m excited to see how they match up with Oklahoma City, but this series was a great way to build momentum for them.

Second Round Preview

(2) New York Knicks vs (6) Indiana Pacers

My Prediction: Indiana in 7

NY X-Factor: OG Anunoby

IND X-Factor: Pascal Siakam

Yes. All the way, yes. In a series representative of the grit and physicality of the nineties series that defined these two teams, the matchup of point guards with role players around them is set to be as physical as ever. I have been all over the place with my prediction on this series, but ultimately, for reasons unknown, I flipped back to the Indiana Pacers. Anyone who follows me on Twitter knows that I don’t like either of these teams moving forward for a multitude of reasons including lack of depth, lack of consistent defense, and inconsistent shooting. The Knicks played really well against Maxey and Embiid, but I think that a lot of that had to do with coaching and Embiid’s injury. Haliburton and Siakam present a different challenge. Tyrese Haliburton is closer to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander than he is to Tyrese Maxey and I think that his playmaking through double teams is a challenge that the Knicks might not be able to stop. For what it’s worth, like the Bucks, the Pacers dominated the Knicks this year and are 1-1 with a close loss against them post-OG trade. The Knicks also have to deal with Siakam and this series will not hinge on the Brunson-Haliburton matchup, but the Siakam-OG matchup. If OG holds his own, the Knicks can have a shot, but without that matchup win, the Pacers will be able to torch them offensively. I think that Brunson will always be able to get his own offense, but if there’s nobody outside of him producing, they can’t win. We saw in the Sixers series that without a random role player going off, the Knicks can’t win. The Knicks' defense gives me a bit of hope, but if the Bucks can dispatch the Bucks' defense, I have some confidence for them against New York.

At the end of the day, the Pacers’ offense is more electric and although they struggle on defense at times, I don’t believe that they are bad enough to lose this series. The offense for Indiana is electric at home and if they can steal a game at MSG, where the Knicks have looked extremely beatable and the Pacers have handily won a game this year, they can sweep at home to win the series. My X-Factors are reflective of the key matchup between the secondary guys to the guards, but that matchup aside, I trust Tyrese Haliburton to take over a game in all facets more than I do Brunson. In a close game, while both have shown up this year and in these playoffs, I trust Haliburton more. That combined with what I view as better depth and coaching on the Indiana side and I’ll lean towards the Pacers. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if shooting variance pushed it to New York.

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Dallas Mavericks

My Prediction: Dallas in 6

DAL X-Factor: Daniel Gafford

OKC X-Factor: Josh Giddey

Hear me out. Oklahoma City is not the worst one-seed of all time and they aren’t a bad team, as they’ve proven, but they are young and inexperienced and this is where that bites you. Dallas has been through a lot more and is a lot more experienced and well-rounded. They will have the best and third-best players in the series and I am not convinced that Shai-Gilgeous Alexander can put together a great series that goes close to the brink. As I said in the last round preview, the size factor might not bother OKC then, but I think it will be bothersome here. I didn’t expect Dallas to be so good at getting the big men involved on both sides and without depth at that position, Oklahoma City would have to dominate the perimeter shooting battle against a team that can really shoot the ball. SGA will be able to keep up with Luka and Kyrie, but asking Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to keep up with that production is a lot. The Thunder saw a semi-playoff environment against the Pelicans, but the Mavericks have been under pressure and feel the pressure to win now. Mentality-wise, it feels like the Thunder are happy to be there and the Mavericks are desperate to continue pushing. While Luka’s injury is a factor, I don’t think that Lu Dort can bother him enough to make it matter. 

Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are more star power than the Thunder can handle. It really feels like the Mavericks, off the heels of having to stifle multiple stars at a time will be more prepared to steal a game in Oklahoma City and ride a great Dallas crowd to a series victory. I hope that Oklahoma City can prove me wrong, but I really don’t like their defense, shooting consistency, and inside presence. My X-Factor for them is Josh Giddey because they just need more firepower. It feels like if they win, it’ll be by committee, which is possible but not likely. Josh Giddey is going to have to make plays and hit threes to separate the Thunder offense from the Mavs’ firepower and physicality. For the Mavs, I’ve identified Daniel Gafford and while I was tempted to go with PJ Washington again, I feel like the more physical and mobile big presents a bigger challenge to OKC than the stretch guy. Gafford in combination with multiple stretch-fours and playmakers in the backcourt is a part of the floor that the Thunder haven’t really had to guard yet and I’m interested in seeing how they react. From the outside looking in, the Thunder have too many question marks and I know what I’m getting this season from Kyrie and Luka. With that being said, I think that the Mavericks hit first, get too much of this series early, and win in six games.

(2) Denver Nuggets vs (3) Minnesota Timberwolves

My Prediction: Denver in 7

DEN X-Factor: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

MIN X-Factor: Karl-Anthony Towns

This series is going to be a rock fight and I am here for it. In what feels like a finals preview in the sense that both of these teams are good enough to win it, there isn’t a worse matchup for Denver than Minnesota. The Wolves have killed them for the past few years and now as reloaded and healthy as ever, they are poised to have their shot at the king. The Nuggets also look as unreliable as ever, giving up 10 to 20-point leads on a whim against an inferior Lakers team with less depth than in years past. However, I still like Denver in this series. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and I think that Jamal Murray’s injury is being overblown. Jokic tends to always surprise me and overperform expectations, so in a series this close, I’m just not going to doubt him anymore and trust that he’ll find a way to get through these Wolves. Anthony Edwards is fantastic and he presents a real challenge for the Nuggets, but Nikola Jokic is the only player in the league who can go back and forth with him in crunch time and without that ability for Edwards, to dominate late in games, I don’t know how reliable Minnesota really is. Last time I checked, Jamal Murray is also very clutch and I trust the Nuggets extra pieces to show up more often than Minnesota’s. Coaching is also a very important factor in this series. While the Wolves dispatched a Frank Vogel team without any defenders for him to coach into a defense, Mike Malone runs a perfect offense with the perfect personnel. Without Chris Finch on the sideline, I don’t trust Minnesota’s adjustments for when Denver gets really good down the stretch. At the end of the day, like OKC, there are too many questions around Minnesota, and in year one of the run, I don’t trust them to beat the defending champions. It’ll be an all-time series, but I like Denver. 

My X-Factors are reflective of the matchups in this series. For Denver, they’ll need to body up on Anthony Edwards and if it’s not Jamal Murray, it’ll have to be KCP. He’s their best perimeter defender and although he won’t stop him, he can put some pressure on him. KAT is an obvious one in this series as their match for Jokic. Towns will get outplayed in every game, but it’s about the degree to which he’s outplayed that’ll decide the games. If Jokic just annihilates him, the games will sway to Denver, but Minnesota has a chance if Towns can close that gap enough. However, I don’t trust him enough to be a big piece of this group dethroning the defending champions. It’ll be close, but advantage Denver. 

Conclusion and Power Rankings

These playoffs have been elite and hopefully, the second round can continue the trend of great basketball that we’ve seen for the past month. There are a lot of questions still to be answered and a lot of quality basketball to be played. I’ll certainly be wrong about some things here and I hope that I’m proven wrong on at least a bit of my takes. The Cleveland/Orlando recap and Boston round two preview will come tomorrow following Game Seven. Looking forward to some real hoops.

Power Rankings

1. Denver Nuggets

2. Boston Celtics

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

5. Dallas Mavericks

6. Indiana Pacers

7. New York Knicks

8. Orlando Magic

9. Cleveland Cavaliers

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

Twitter - @TheSatBlues