An NBA First Round Roundup and Second Round Predictions

  In the midst of the NFL Draft, the MLB Season, and one of the greatest stretches of rap album releases in years, the NBA Playoffs have stolen the show. Stars are being born, the basketball hierarchy is being rewritten, and history is being made. The first round featured buzzer-beaters, game-winners, all-out fights, and chaos. Round one was fun, but now the playoffs really start. However, before we move on to the conference semifinals, I want to highlight some things that I loved and others that I didn’t from the first round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs.

Loves and Mehs from Round One

Love: Jose Alvarado

The Pelicans and Suns first-round series was a lot more competitive than everyone thought it would be. The main reason was Devin Bookers’ injury, but watching Jose Alvarado bother and annoy Chris Paul, who himself is one of the most annoying players in the league, was amazing. The Pels played with heart and along with Herb Jones, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram, they’re poised to be a team to be reckoned with in the future.  

Meh: The Utah Jazz

Once again, the Donovan Mitchell-led Utah Jazz collapsed in the playoffs. This time, they went out with a whimper as they couldn’t capitalize on the mostly Luka-less Mavericks. Instead of attacking a weaker Mavs team, they let Jalen Brunson have a breakout series and Luka come back into a competitive series. They don’t have much direction moving forward and new basketball czar, Danny Ainge, could blow things up this summer. This collapse may have been the last straw for this iteration of the Utah Jazz.

Love: Max Strus and Grayson Allen

This isn’t because they’re both 6’4-6’6ish white guys who can shoot and defend, but more the new roles that they’re playing for their teams. While Allen isn’t starting, he is making a huge impact shooting the ball as he averaged north of 20 points per game without Khris Middleton against the Bulls. Meanwhile, Boston cast-off Max Strus has become Miami’s hottest new 3 and D threat. They’re sized similarly and are playing great in an expanded role. They might not get the mainstream love, but they sure have mine. They are key cogs in two teams that hope to go further than the second round.

Meh: Brooklyn’s Future

The Nets didn’t just lose to the Celtics, they got crushed. Ben Simmons’ future is uncertain as ever, Kyrie Irving’s commitment to basketball remains in question, and Kevin Durant looked exhausted towards the end of the year. They’ll try and retool for next year, but how? If they want to get bigger, who’s out there for cheap? More scoring? They don’t have the money. Kyrie’s extension will be the talk of the town and whether or not they commit could drive the NBA offseason. The Nets are definitely something to look at in the near future, despite no longer being in playoff contention. They aren’t young, don’t have picks, and could be heading towards another collapse. It’s a tough time for New York basketball, but that’s not new.

Love: Klay Thompson and Draymond Green

I love the new Warriors “death lineup”. However, Jordan Poole and Stephen Curry are getting a bit too much love from the media. When you look at the lineups, it isn’t Curry and Poole who make them work, but Green and Thompson. While Thompson may have slightly declined defensively, everywhere else, he’s still in his prime. Not to mention how Draymond Green looks like he’s quietly playing the best ball of his career. Not a secret or unpopular, but I love these Warriors.

Meh: The Minnesota-Memphis Series

This may be unpopular to say, but I did not enjoy this series. From both teams, national audiences were treated to some unserious and nasty basketball from both teams. Minnesota blew multiple double-digit fourth-quarter leads and Memphis’ offense often looked more like a middle school offense than an NBA one. Golden State is going to wallop Memphis and I couldn’t be more excited. The sooner all remnants of this series are dead, the better.

10 Free Takes

1. The Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA Playoffs.

2. The Suns look extremely vulnerable.

3. Harden’s legacy is on the line vs Miami.

4. Luka has an AMAZING chance to make the Conference Finals.

5. Desmond Bane is already a star.

6. Jayson Tatum might be top five.

7. Ja Morant isn’t top 15 anymore, that series really showed it.

8. Some team is gonna really overpay Bruce Brown (and it’s gonna be Detroit).

9. Kevon Looney is the most important player regarding a Warriors championship run.

10. Tyrese Maxey is either going to have the series of his life or crash against the Heat, no in between.

The Second Round Predictions

#1 Miami Heat vs #4 Philadelphia 76ers

My Winner: Miami Heat in six games.

No Joel Embiid for Philly is the dealbreaker here. The outcome largely hinges on how many games he misses, but even then, would it matter? Outside of Embiid, the Sixers have been remarkably average. Maxey has shined at times, but has been largely inconsistent. Tobias Harris is the same story. James Harden, to put it bluntly, has been disappointingly bad. If he cannot revert to form against Miami, the Sixers are in trouble. On Miami’s side, Jimmy Butler has never been playing better, their depth has shown to be lethal, and the defense is still top notch. The real only concerns to watch: Kyle Lowry’s injury and Bam Adebayo’s wildly decreased production against a pretty horrid Atlanta defense. Maxey will get his, but if Harden can’t deliver this team will struggle without Embiid. The non-Embiid minutes are too much to overcome and Miami is a team that can take advantage of a bad matchup and injuries to key players.

#2 Boston Celtics vs #3 Milwaukee Bucks

My Winner: Boston Celtics in five games.

Similar to the Heat-Sixers series, injuries dictated my pick here. Had Khris Middleton been able to play in some of this series, I might’ve extended the series or even picked the Bucks. However, without him, it’s a different story. He plays like ‘93 MJ against the Celtics and without him, they’ll struggle. For the Celtics, they’re fully healthy with no holes on the roster. They are the best team in the East and the playoffs as a whole. If this analysis seems thin, it’s because I already took a deep dive on this series already, which is hyperlinked here.

#1 Phoenix Suns vs #4 Dallas Mavericks

My Winner: Phoenix Suns in seven games. 

This series, to me, will undoubtedly be the most competitive in the second round. Both teams are banged up, but relatively healthy. Dallas has the best player in the series by far, but the Suns have the next two. Both teams don’t love to play much defense and have explosive offenses. To me, like the first round, home court will win out. Brunson, Dinwiddie, Bertans, and Kleber may be consistently lethal at home, but on the road, in Phoenix? That’s a bit dicier. Phoenix is looking weaker than ever and might let a couple of these games slip. They have a tendency to look lost on offense when they’re trailing and if they get down, it can be hard for them to dig out of the hole until very late in the game. I don’t like the Suns’ tendency to get in close games and Luka Dončić is one of the best closers in the league. If it gets into clutch time, I like Luka more than anyone else in this series. However, the Suns are far and away the better team and for that reason, I have to trust that they’ll pull it out.

#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs #3 Golden State Warriors

My Winner: Golden State Warriors in four games.

I know, I know, picking the lower seed to win in a sweep is crazy, but hear me out. The Grizzlies showed that through three quarters, they should’ve lost in five games to Minnesota. However, the Grizz were able to take advantage of the young Timberwolves’ inability to close tight games. For that reason, they were able to move on. Coming back late works against Minnesota, but that won’t fly against Golden State. I expect the Warriors to dominate early, but hold on when it counts. Positionally, the only “win” for the Grizzlies might be at center, as Jaren Jackson Jr. is better than any big the Warriors have. Despite Ja’s fantastic play, Stephen Curry is still better. Desmond Bane has broken out, but Jordan Poole has broken out on a different level. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are better than any ancillary players that the Grizzlies have and the Warriors are deeper. It might seem bold, but I don’t think it is. I’m fully in on the death lineup. Dubs in four.

Playoff Power Rankings

1. Boston Celtics

Best defense, arguably best offense, and the most impressive first-round win. They’re fully loaded and fully healthy. This is an easy number one pick. Jayson Tatum has been far and away the best player in the playoffs with more motivation to prove it again against Giannis. What a run that would be…

2. Golden State Warriors

The old Dubs are back. Death lineups are being thrown out again. This time around strength really is in numbers. I am a believer. 

3. Miami Heat

Sneaky complete team. Bam and Lowry are concerning, but this is Jimmy’s best playoff yet. They did only beat the Hawks, but they looked damn impressive. It may be the Eastern Conference Finals where they face their first real test, but they look for real.

4. Phoenix Suns

Respect the best regular-season team and defending Western Conference champs. They survived the Pels’ scare and have Booker back. Games one and two of this series could be the biggest indication of whether or not they can get back to the big game again.

5. Milwaukee Bucks

The defending champs might be underrated. A lot of this is the Middleton injury and some of it might be poor roster construction. Outside of Giannis, there isn’t much defense here. That scares me and for that reason, they’re fifth.

6. Dallas Mavericks

Luka is this entire team. The Jazz made the rest of them look good, but it’s all on Luka. They don’t really defend or shoot consistently. However, they just win games. They aren’t good enough to climb yet, but beating the Suns could easily propel them into the top two of the next round.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

No Embiid, no top ranking. Simple as that. They also almost blew a 3-0 lead in embarrassing fashion to a banged-up Toronto team. I’m glad and proud they figured it out, but coaching, lack of depth, and poor decision-making put them this low.

8. Memphis Grizzlies

If they could be lower than eighth, they would be. This team should’ve been dispatched in five games, but because Minnesota is physically incapable of closing, here we are. They don’t match up well against Golden State because they don’t defend and take stupid shots. They are the Chicago Bulls of round two.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd