NBA Midseason Report: What to Watch For in the Second Half of the 2020-2021 NBA Season
By Adam Zimmerman Diaz
In a season that will be remembered as more different and weirder than any other season in NBA History, the NBA looks much odder than most thought it would look at the All-Star break in December. All-Star Weekend appeared to be a relative success (Unless you’re a Sixers fan) and the NBA looks primed to welcome fans back in a step towards normalcy in the second half of the season. So, what will that look like? In the first half of the season, we’ve seen COVID and injuries tear through apparent contenders and surprise teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and Utah Jazz take over the NBA. The second half of the season looks like it will bring even more surprise and intrigue than the last 3 months, so I decided to highlight three of the things that I’ll be looking out for in the second half of this very unique 2020-2021 NBA Season.
The Height Limit in the MVP Race.
For the first time since basketball was about who could set the toughest screens and throw the hardest elbows, the MVP race is dominated by the Center position. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic entered the midway point of the season atop of all MVP ladders and rankings, and it ain’t particularly close. The two Centers have been head and shoulders above not only other big men but everybody. First, my frontrunner for MVP, Joel Embiid. Jojo has broken out (again). This year, he’s averaging a career-high 30.2 points per game on a career-high and inhuman 52% field goal percentage. Along with his scoring, he’s bringing 11.6 rebounds, 3 assists, a block, and a steal a game to the table, all of which are unreal for a guy that is 7’0 and 285 pounds. Along with the flashy numbers, he’s playing his healthiest season yet, played in 30 of the Sixers’ 36 games, a great sign for Sixers fans that have seen him go down with injury year after year. The numbers and health are amazing and an MVP case alone but the cherry on top is the team success. After a first-round sweep at the hands of the Boston Celtics in 2020, in 2021, the Sixers are atop the east at 24-12 and show no signs of slowing down. According to Tankathon’s Strength of Schedule, Embiid and the Sixers have the sixth easiest schedule remaining and if they hold on to a top-two seed, it would only bolster his MVP case. So that might make you think if Embiid is so dominant, how is Jokic in the MVP conversation? Well, Nikola Jokic represents a very interesting era of the big man. Nikola Jokic represents everything that a ‘modern’ Center is supposed to be. A modern Center is supposed to be a shooter and a playmaker that is also dominant inside. Jokic is just that. At 6’11 and 284 pounds (probably a generous underestimation), Jokic is damn near averaging a triple-double! With career-bests in points with 27.1, assists with 8.6, and rebounds with 11, Jokic has arguably the most dominant all-around offensive player in basketball this year. He’s played all thirty-six of the Nuggets’ games this year and in the tough Western Conference, Jokic’s Nuggets sit just three games back of Embiid’s Sixers. The Nuggets have the fifth easiest schedule remaining and with a lesser supporting cast and more competitive conference than Embiid, Jokic is definitely still in the MVP conversation if he keeps up his impressive play.
The bigs are fun, but where are the big names? Where are the LeBrons, the KDs, the James Hardens of the world? They also have a chance to build strong MVP cases in the second half. LeBron has kept the Lakers afloat in the West without AD, keeping up his usual dominant level of play at age 36 (Although, he makes it look like 26). Year 17 has shown little regression for the King. What about KD? KD’s problem is health. Up until late January, there was a strong argument that KD was right in the mix with Embiid and Jokic. If Durant can carry the Nets past Philly with strong scoring and dominant play, he could jump right back into the conversation. Then there’s Harden, I can’t forget about the beard! Harden leads the league in assists at 11.1 and is a guard averaging just under 26 points per game on the fourth-best efficiency of any player in the NBA. He’s having another career year, but not as remarkable as Embiid and Jokic. Like Kevin Durant, if Harden takes the dominant role on the Nets and leads them past Philly, he has the capability to jump right back into the conversation. There are others like Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, and Damian Lillard who are all having amazing years and I cannot predict exactly what will happen in the second half of this season. However, as it looks right now, the age of the big man is back and better than ever.
The Excellence of the Rookie Point Guard.
I will be the first person to admit that I was wrong about this year’s rookie class. I mouthed off on Twitter that this was a weak class without a clear number one pick and that they’d all be mediocre in a COVID-riddled year that nobody would really count for the rookies anyways. Oh, how wrong I was. This rookie class has shown dominant top picks and even some sleepers towards the later end of the draft. As many great rookies as there have been this year, I want to highlight just three, and how all three have contributed to the resurgence of their respective teams.
LaMelo Ball
Everyone has an opinion on LaMelo Ball. He is just nineteen years of age and is arguably one of the most polarizing figures in the sport. His highly televised and recorded rise to stardom from the point that he was in middle school is a reflection of the new-age high school athlete. Everything is recorded, everything is online, and anyone can achieve fame through a couple of highlights on YouTube. The basketball world saw a preview of this type of player with the meteoric rise of Zion Williamson back in 2018, but Zion was not a Ball Brother. Zion did not have a father who had gone on ESPN, FS1, and every primetime network to mouth off about not just his one son, but all three. LaMelo is the youngest of the Ball Brothers and as his father LaVar promised, he is indeed the best. LaMelo was seen as a risky pick anywhere he went. He has superstar potential, but his questionable defensive effort and shot selection raised many red flags among NBA executives and scouts. However, as soon as he got the seal of approval from Hornets owner and Greatest Player of All Time, Michael Jordan, all doubts were quashed. He started the season coming off of the bench, but for a player that electrifying, it wasn’t a question of if, but when he would break into the starting lineup. Alongside Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, Malik Monk, and Devonte Graham, the Charlotte Hornets are fun. LaMelo has been the source of fun for Charlotte and since entering the starting lineup, Ball is averaging 20 points with 6 assists and 6 rebounds per game on 46.0/43.0/86.0 shooting splits. This would give LaMelo an argument for an All-Star game let alone Rookie of the Year. LaMelo is my favorite and for good reason. Along with his star numbers, the Hornets sit at 7th in the East, a pleasant surprise for both Hornets fans and NBA fans.
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyrese Haliburton is a bit less known than Ball, hailing from Iowa State instead of Australia and millions of followers on social media. Don’t let that fool you though, because ‘Rese is a baller. He’s averaging 13-5-3 on the year, which is a bit less than Ball’s 16-6-6, but Haliburton has been just as eye-popping. Like most rookies, it took him a bit of time to get going but how far he has gone. In February, he scored 20+ in five of the eleven games that he played in. Along with the increased scoring output, he passes the eye test. Haliburton is a skilled passer and defender, showing the potential of an elite two-way point guard. Although his Sacramento Kings sit well outside of the playoff picture in the competitive Western Conference, Haliburton along with backcourt-mate De’Aaron Fox have given the Kings something they haven’t had in years: direction. The Kings know who to build around and Haliburton will certainly be a piece of the Kings future towards contention.
Immanuel Quickley
The fan-proclaimed “king of the floater” has been instrumental in the return of a New York Knicks team that isn’t complete garbage. He’s only averaging 12-2-2, but he’s been used more as a bench piece and has been showing more flashes of what he could be rather than showing out as a star right now. At the 25th pick, Knicks fans weren’t expecting much, as they’d already gotten the crown jewel of their 2020 draft class, Obi Toppin. However, it’s been Quickley to show offensive potential and has garnered comparisons to Jamal Crawford and other iconic bench scorers who played with flare. Quickley has had his moments this year, torching the Cavs, Celtics, Nets, and Blazers earlier in the season, and right before the break, he had notable performances against the Kings and Spurs. Quickley will be a good player and out of this rookie class, I think he has the potential to break out in the second half of this season. The Knicks are looking to make a playoff push in the weak Eastern Conference and if Quickley can shine, the Knicks might be able to overcome the fifth hardest remaining schedule in the NBA to hold on to their playoff spot.
Honorable Mentions/Highlighted Rookies:
Anthony Edwards, G/F, Minnesota Timberwolves
James Wiseman, C, Golden State Warriors
Payton Pritchard, G, Boston Celtics
Tyrese Maxey, G, Philadelphia 76ers
Patrick Williams, F, Chicago Bulls
Chuma Okeke, F, Orlando Magic
Cole Anthony, G, Orlando Magic
Deni Avdija, F, Washington Wizards
The Midseason Trade Market.
One thing that all NBA Fans both want to and don’t want to talk about is the March 25th Trade Deadline. For the first time in what feels like forever, but in reality, is only about four years, the NBA trade market is completely unpredictable. Nobody knows where anybody is going to go, but the names of the players who are likely to be moved are pretty clear. I’ve ranked the potential movers into three categories: Shipped, Processing, and Return to Sender, each reflecting on a player’s likelihood to be traded.
Shipped:
Andre Drummond, C, Cleveland Cavaliers
Drummond has been sat by Cleveland until they can find a way to trade him. On the last year of his contract and due to the mid-season acquisition of Jarrett Allen, the Cavs will likely try and find a way to dump Drummond. There is a chance that Drummond becomes a buyout candidate, increasing his market. Assuming he exits Cleveland via trade, the only team that could feasibly deal for him and has expressed interest is Toronto, but even they don’t seem likely to pull the trigger. He won’t end the season in Cleveland, but it’s hard to say where else he will end it.
Likely Destinations: Toronto, Boston, Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn (because f*** competition, right?)
PJ Tucker, F/C, Houston Rockets
The Rockets have been actively looking to trade the veteran and although he won’t have the same amount of impact as Drummond, he’s viewed as a strong bench piece on any contender. He’ll likely be bought out if he isn’t shipped for a late pick.
Likely Destinations: Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers
Demarcus Cousins, C, Free Agent
The former All-Star was unexpectedly cut by Houston and although he has shown flashes of his former self, he had been overshadowed by Christian Wood in Houston and the Rockets couldn’t trade him. He’s an interesting target in the buyout market and if he’s willing to take a lesser role, he could contribute to a winning team.
Likely Destinations: Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State, Boston
Processing:
Aaron Gordon, F, Orlando Magic
I’d honestly throw Magic guard, Evan Fournier, into this category as well. Both players are likely to be shipped for the same reason. That reason being that they could contribute to a contender and they are likely to leave Orlando within two years. Gordon would add a versatile wing piece to any contender. For Boston and the Clippers, he adds a wing defender off of the bench that could come in when your star wings sit, something both teams need.
Likely destinations: Boston, Dallas, Milwaukee, Los Angeles Clippers
Evan Fournier, G/F, Orlando Magic
For the same reason as Gordon, Fournier is likely to be out the door in Orlando. However, Fournier adds shooting to a team. Shooters like Fournier are treated like commodities, but at a salary just over $17 million, his market is thin and limited to teams that have picks and flexible salary books.
Likely Destinations: Boston, Toronto, Portland, Los Angeles Clippers
Harrison Barnes, F, Sacramento Kings
Barnes is a versatile scorer and a great two-way player on a fair contract for today’s NBA. Sacramento would likely move him for draft compensation and over the amount of interest he’s garnered this season. He would be a great bench piece for any team willing to take a swing at the former Warrior. Out of the players I’ve highlighted in this tier, he’s the most likely to stay put.
Likely destinations: Boston, Miami, Dallas, Sacramento (stays)
Thaddeus Young, F, Chicago Bulls
Thad Young is a veteran forward who has always excelled at playmaking and being a very complete offensive player. Chicago would likely only move him for strong compensation, as they’ve implied that they have no plans to move him, but there is a myriad of teams that believe he could change their fortunes this season.
Likely destinations: Chicago (stays), Miami, Boston
Return to Sender:
Bradley Beal, G, Washington Wizards
Contrary to the optimism of every NBA Fanbase that isn’t in the nation’s capital, the league’s leading scorer isn’t going anywhere. Beal hasn’t requested a trade and unless a team massively overpays, Beal isn’t moving. His close friendship with Celtics forward, Jayson Tatum, has sparked rumors but nothing else. If the C’s aren’t willing to pony up Kemba, young guys, and a TON of draft compensation, the best bet is to wait until this offseason to see what happens to Brad Beal.
Likely Destinations: Washington (stays)
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has always been stingy when parting ways with assets and similarly to Beal, Towns hasn’t hinted towards a trade despite the team’s failures. However, after the last two years of the roster and personnel turnover, one cannot deny the similarities to former Timberwolves star, Kevin Garnett, and how his final days in Minessota played out. Towns is a player to keep an eye on if Minnesota fully commits to a rebuild.
Likely destinations: Minnesota (stays)
Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
I was back and forth on this one. Vucevic just signed a new contract in Orlando, but as he’s been making All-Star teams, the team around him has gotten younger and younger and as Orlando’s season has begun to crumble, teams have begun to take another look at the Orlando big man. It’d take a lot to move him, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on at going into this offseason and even at the Trade Deadline.
Likely Destinations: Orlando (stays), San Antonio, Boston
We’ll have to wait a couple of weeks and in some cases, months, to see where each of these guys ends up, but this year’s trade deadline is as unpredictable as ever and with the close standings in both conferences, one move could end up being the difference between contention and mediocrity. Will Boston use the TPE? Will Toronto or Miami try and make a push? Will LA and Brooklyn add even more? For once, we just don’t know.
Things That I Love and Hate Going Into the Second Half of the 2020-2021 NBA Season
Love: Boston’s Jays
As a Celtics fan, I’m biased, but their emergence is undeniable. Right now, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are averaging 24.9 and 24.7 points per game respectively. A drop-off from their early-season tear, the two have had their struggles, but after entering the All-Star break on a four-game winning streak, including wins over the Clippers, Pacers, and Raptors, I can’t wait to see what the Celtics and the Jays can accomplish at the end of the season.
Hate: COVID’s Impact
COVID-19 has thrown everything out of place in the world for over a year now and for the NBA, it has thrown off the schedule, a lot. Every team except for the LA Lakers, LA Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets (Interesting list, Adam Silver.) has had games delayed because of COVID-19. Notably, the Raptors, Sixers, and Celtics have had their seasons thrown out of place because of COVID. We were robbed of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons at All-Star Weekend because of COVID, KD and Jayson Tatum have missed time, and the impact of a short offseason has caused notable injuries in players like Kevin Durant, Kemba Walker, and Anthony Davis. The first marquee matchup after the All-Star break is between the Celtics and Nets. A competitive intra-division rivalry is ruined because Thursday’s matchup won’t feature Marcus Smart or Kevin Durant. It will still be fun, but overall, the impact of COVID on the NBA has not been fun.
Love: The Hornets and Spurs
I’ve already swooned over the Hornets enough in this piece. I love LaMelo, Terry, Myles, Gordon, and P.J. on the court. The Hornets are so fun to watch and the only thing that I ask is that they bring back the true throwback pinstripe jerseys. If they did, that would be… so great. However, I haven’t discussed the San Antonio Spurs at all in this piece, but in Spurs fashion, they’re quietly building their next contender. Dejounte Murray is one of, if not the most slept-on player in the NBA. He’s averaging 16-7-5 this year and is only getting better. Pair that with former All-Stars Demar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge along with young studs in Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, and Lonnie Walker IV, and they have a solid squad. They’ll likely be back in the playoffs this year and trust me, they play some fun basketball. Their problem is nobody seems to care and that’s exactly how they like it in San Antonio.
Hate: The Expectations of New York Basketball
All I’ve been hearing over the past three months is how the Knicks are back and the Nets are the NBA’s new big dog, but I have to say that this view is so overblown. It’s New York, so everything will be overanalyzed to all hell, but some of these takes are a bit premature. The Knicks have been solid, and Julius Randle is having an amazing year, but they coasted on an easy schedule. The Knicks have taken advantage of being in a division with three other teams, Boston, Philly, and Toronto, that have had their seasons seriously altered by COVID. The east is close enough that when New York begins the fifth hardest schedule of games, they likely won’t end up in the playoffs. That leaves the Big Apple with the little brother in Brooklyn. This season, the little brother has grown up as the James Harden trade solidified what was already a legitimate contender. However, in that deal, they lost Jarrett Allen and earlier this year, they’d already lost backup point guard, Spencer Dinwiddie, to a season-ending knee injury. This team lacks height. Most NBA fans would say they fixed that problem, though. They signed Blake Griffin! They are going to destroy the league! This team with Blake, who could stop them? I hate to say it to you, Nets fans, but Blake is an All-Star in name alone. He has been abysmal this season, averaging just 12 points and 5 rebounds on 36% shooting. He hasn’t dunked in two years and has looked like a shell of his former self in Detroit. Maybe he can excel in a lesser role, but Brooklyn shouldn’t get their hopes up about being able to guard the likes of Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo just yet.
Conclusion
The second half brings promise and excitement. There is much to be excited about, whether that be rookies, trades, or the playoffs. In the era, nothing is certain, this past year and NBA season have proven that. Yet, there is a feeling of certainty that this NBA season will end like no other and that includes the uniqueness of last year’s bubble. How the teams and players end up remains to be seen, but I can’t wait for everything to get started.
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