2022 NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions

      

         For basketball fans, or at least me, the play-in game from last year had left a sour taste in our mouths. For the past two years, the play-in had given us cool moments like LeBron’s game-winner versus Golden State and Jayson Tatum’s 50-bomb versus the Wizards, but the games felt meaningless. However, this year was different and we got entertaining and meaningful play-in games. In the end, it’s Brooklyn, Atlanta, Minnesota, and New Orleans taking the play-in spots. Some think that these teams can make waves in the playoffs, while others think that they’re one and done. What will happen? Who will come out on top? I wanted to try and answer these questions with my first-round predictions for the 2022 NBA Playoffs.

Eastern Conference

#1 Miami Heat vs #8 Atlanta Hawks

Winner: Miami Heat in 6 games.

Yes, Trae Young is excellent. However, I just don’t buy that Atlanta, missing John Collins and likely Clint Capela, can pull out an upset over the #1 seeded Heat. Trae Young and their depth combined with Miami’s tendency to falter on the road can probably get the Hawks two games, but other than that, I just don’t see it. The Heat have their problems, but Bam Adebayo will be too much in the paint on both ends and they don’t really have anyone to cover Kyle Lowry. They have bodies to throw at Herro, but I don’t think they can contain him for seven games. I won’t mention Jimmy Butler here, given his propensity to choke in the playoffs, but if they can get anything from him, that’s a bonus. The Heat is a team deep with role players like Max Strus, Victor Oladipo, Duncan Robinson, and Dewayne Dedmon, just to name a few. Trae is electric enough to get you two, but don’t expect another deep playoff run from the Hawks. Heat in six-ish.

#2 Boston Celtics vs #7 Brooklyn Nets

Winner: Boston Celtics in 5 games.

Let me explain. No, this is not me being a Boston homer. No, this is not me backing up my prediction of a Celtics championship. This is me looking at two teams that I’ve watched all year and thinking about how they’d play in the playoffs. Everyone is taking too much from the play-in game. Yes, the Nets looked really good… against the Cleveland Cavaliers, without Jarrett Allen in Brooklyn. The Cavs' defense was atrocious, yet careless turnovers and consistently awful defense let that game get close. The Nets won their play-in game by seven points against a pretty bad offensive team. Everyone knows that the Celtics' defense is the best in the league, but they also boast a top ten offense that ranks number one in the last 15 games without Robert Williams (the defense was also number one over that span). The Celtics will have the second and third/fourth (I won’t debate Kyrie/Jaylen here) best players in this series, but the key is that they also have the next five best players too. The Celtics are deep, tough up front, and can cover the Nets' two stars. In his one game against this Celtics team, Kyrie was awful. He’ll have to face the same defense this series and Durant cannot win it by himself. The stars are good enough to take one game from the best defense in the league but by no measure the series. Celtics in five. Go cry to your momma, Brooklyn.

#3 Milwaukee Bucks vs #6 Chicago Bulls

Winner: Milwaukee Bucks in 4 games.

I almost feel bad for Chicago. If it wasn’t for the shameless boasting all year, I wouldn’t pick on a team that’s gone through injury and collapse at the same time. However, I can’t just skip over the fact that the Bulls are by far the worst team in these playoffs and have looked awful for three straight months. If there was ever a colder team coming into the playoffs, they’d play in Antarctica. Meanwhile, the Bucks are the clear favorite to come out of the East as the defending champs have only added to an already stout and deep roster. Giannis is still Giannis, Middleton is still a killer, and the rest of the team is only deeper. The potential second-round matchup between Boston and Milwaukee is far more intriguing than this series. Bucks in four; a proper sweep.

#4 Philadelphia 76ers vs #5 Toronto Raptors

Winner: Toronto Raptors in 7 games.

This is the toughest series to call. The Raptors have dominated the season series, James Harden hasn’t played well against them and plays notoriously worse in the playoffs, and even Joel Embiid says he hates playing against this team. The Sixers could easily win if their stars show up, but I don’t trust James Harden to do that. If he plays like a liability, they cannot win. Embiid will get 40 a night in this series, but it won’t matter. The Raps have length everywhere on defense and versatile offense players abound. They are very similar to the late 2010s/early 2020s Heat that has given the Sixers fits in the playoffs. Combined with Doc seemingly losing his coaching ability and Nick Nurse being everything and more for Toronto, I just don’t see it for Philly. It’s hard to fathom, but I don’t see them getting out of the first round. It could go either way, but as of now, I got Toronto in seven.

Western Conference

#1 Phoenix Suns vs #8 New Orleans Pelicans

Winner: Phoenix Suns in 4 games.

Ah, the play-in. Wasn’t that euphoric, New Orleans? Well, here comes reality, and reality’s name is the Phoenix Suns. New Orleans was built to pull off a couple of those upsets in the play-in, but not to beat the best team in the league and clear title favorites. For me, if I had to point out one of the many flaws in the Pelicans that doom them in this series, it’s perimeter defense. Outside of CJ McCollum, they don’t have anyone that can stick with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. If you can’t shut them down, good luck with everything else. The Suns' offense starts with those two and when they get going, I’m not even sure that the Dream Team could stop them. The Pels are a cool story, but nothing more. With Zion, they’d lose in six. Without him? Suns in four.

#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs #7 Minnesota Timberwolves

Winner: Memphis Grizzlies in 7 games.

I picked Memphis, but not too handily. When Chuck and Shaq said that the Timberwolves would win this series after their play-in victory, I thought that it was a bit crazy, but not too far off. In the end, Memphis’ depth and consistency give them the edge here, but I’m still not completely sold on Memphis. Minnesota has solid perimeter defenders and beating Memphis isn’t so much about shutting down Ja Morant as it is about shutting down the extensive amount of scoring wings that they throw at teams. I think that Minnesota has depth at the wings and a lot of effort on the perimeter. If Karl-Anthony Towns can show up for a couple of games, I think that they can make it a series. In the end, I think Memphis will win, but the main takeaway will be that Anthony Edwards and the T-Wolves are coming. Grizzlies in seven, but it should be a fun one.

#3 Golden State Warriors vs #6 Denver Nuggets

Winner: Golden State Warriors in 5 games.

Similar to the Nets/Celtics series, this comes down to how many games the superstars can single-handedly win. I think that Jokić can give the Nuggets one game, but going against a healthy Stephen Curry, a surging Klay Thompson, and a prepared Draymond Green, he can’t push them any further. This postseason will serve as a reminder of the Warriors’ dominance. They have a deeper team than they’ve had in a while, but their lack of depth up front scares me a bit. The lack of help for Jokić puts them at five games instead of six in this series, but even that’s impressive as the Nuggets are seriously outmatched in this series. Mike Malone is a fantastic coach and he’ll figure something out, but in the NBA, it comes down to talent and Denver is lacking. Past Jokić, there isn’t much. For the Warriors, this could be the start of a deep playoff run. Warriors in five with something to prove.

#4 Dallas Mavericks vs #5 Utah Jazz

Winner: Utah Jazz in 7 games.

Like the 4/5 matchup in the East, this one was a very tough call. Luka Dončić’s injury pushed me over the edge. Dallas is built to win with Luka, not without him. What I mean by that is that this roster is specifically tailored to him and without that central cog, nothing in this machine will run. Their talent, depth, and Luka's desire to play through his calf injury push it to seven games, but the Mavs don’t have the defensive or wing depth to win. On the other side, the Utah Jazz has a deep squad of versatile defenders and offensive firepower to boot. Rudy Gobert will stop a lot of Dallas’ drive and kick, penetration, and pick-and-roll offense. Donovan Mitchell and company will have their way on the offensive end with Dallas’ defensive guards being asked to do more on the offensive end. With Luka hobbled, I’ll take Utah in what’s sure to be a very interesting and undercovered series. Jazz in seven, but it’s a toss-up.

Concluding Thoughts and Looking Forward

The 2022 NBA Playoffs are sure to be some of the most interesting and entertaining basketball we’ve seen in a while. For Western Conference teams, it’s about staying healthy and seeing who could dethrone the Suns. For Eastern Conference teams, it’s about staying hot. I don’t remember a time when the East was this wide open. The top five seeds in the East all have a case to make the Finals. While some (*cough* Bucks and Celtics *cough) are more convincing than others, I wouldn’t rule Miami, Philly, or Toronto out just yet. I’m looking forward to narratives being broken, stars being born, and basketball legacy playing out in front of our eyes. No matter who wins, who loses, or whose predictions are right or wrong, it’s sure to be fun. See you in the second round for my next couple of predictions that are sure to be 100% correct.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd