An NBA Conference Finals Roundup and Finals Predictions

 

        Over the past week, I’ve read over some of my previous pieces and I’ve realized that I always start these pieces with some bigger theme or message. I always try and think about something else in the world or a meaningful lesson and connect it to sports. This time, I feel like I need to come to terms with my biases toward Boston. As someone who has lived all across Massachusetts, resides in Boston and goes to UMass, I might be slightly biased towards Boston sports teams. I like to think that I don’t let it seep through to my opinions, but alas, sometimes I just can’t help it. However, when I write about the NBA or even sports as a whole, that really goes out the window. I’ve been right about Boston teams and I have certainly been wrong. Yet, I would be remiss if I didn’t express how excited I am that the Boston Celtics are finally back in the NBA Finals. For the first time in over a decade, the sport’s original dynasty is playing for the championship. With that being said, let’s reflect on what happened in the conference finals and preview what the NBA Finals might look like.

Loves and Mehs from the Conference Finals

Love: Andrew Wiggins

Coming into the year, the Warriors had high hopes, but not really in part to Wiggins. He was slated to be a third, possibly even fourth option, behind Golden State’s big three (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green). He was going to be the key ancillary guy that could push them over the top. However, during the 2022 playoffs, he’s arguably been their second option behind Stephen Curry. That might sound absurd, but his 15.8 points per game might not show that he’s consistently been their second or third-leading scorer during games. Despite the emergence of Jordan Poole, it was Wiggins who seemingly saved the Warriors in the Mavs series. In four of their last eight playoff games, it has been Wiggins who has been the second-leading scorer behind Curry (and one Klay Thompson game). With Klay’s health still a question mark, Wiggins has also been the Warriors’ chief defensive weapon against perimeter players, sporting the best defensive rating among perimeter players still in the Warrior rotation, at 112.4. Now, that’s not a good defensive rating, but considering how bad the Warriors have been on defense during the playoffs, with a defensive rating of 111.5 and surrendering 109.1 points per game, Wiggins’ defense against the likes of Ja Morant and Luka Dončić will be needed against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Wiggins has truly embodied what it means to be a “star in your role” and I think he can continue to do it. Whether it be highlights, like his dunk over Luka Dončić, or routine defensive stops, the Dubs will need all of it to contend with Boston.

Meh: Mavericks’ Shot Selection

It’s no secret that the Mavericks really only have one offensive strategy. The “give the ball to Luka and force him to make a play” offense proved all for naught against the Warriors, as the Mavs offense shot 55.3 percent of their field goal attempts from three while only shooting 36.8 percent. That’s an average percentage by all accounts, but you can’t survive if you’re taking that many. The Mavs averaged 44.6 threes per game, 9.9 attempts more than the second-highest three-point shooting team by volume, the Miami Heat. That kind of offense just isn’t sustainable. They played the risk/reward game and lost when it counted. In the Suns series, they shot 39 per game but made basically 40 percent of them. Not to mention, in the Suns series, three-pointers only made up 48 percent of their shot selection. 48 percent isn’t low by any means, but it’s better than 55.3 percent and more sustainable when you’re making 40 percent of them. In a relatively high-scoring series, it really seems like the Mavs could’ve probably won a few more games by simply driving to the rim. The Warriors have given up 42.3 paint points per game during the 2022 playoffs. Of the conference finals teams, that’s only better than the Dallas Mavericks themselves. As a whole, both teams didn’t have rim protectors, but only one of the teams was equipped to get offense that didn’t involve any semblance of rim pressure. Bad three-point shooting nights really summed up the series for Dallas. Whether it be their 48 attempts at 22.9 percent showing in game one, or 45 attempts at 28.9 percent in game three, Dallas could’ve tried something else. In that game three, which they had to win to avoid going down three games to none, their three-point specialists, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber went a combined 0-12 from three. The Mavs were in every game that they didn’t shoot themselves out of. The worst part? The onus to do better is not on personnel moves but on coaching.

Love: The Tatum/Butler Duels

Although they both had their bad moments in this series, the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals really came down to these two going at each other. Game one saw the shorthanded Celtics come up well short of the Heat and Jimmy Butler’s 47 points, but in games five and seven, Jimmy wasn’t enough. In game five, Tatum had a near triple-double with 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists, while Jimmy Butler was missing in action, with just 13 points on 22.2 percent shooting. In the deciding game seven, Tatum’s 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists outlasted Jimmy’s 35 points. Jimmy had 40 points twice and Tatum had at least 20 points and 4 assists in every game but one. Butler had to be a scorer and Tatum had to be a playmaker and both starred in those roles. There were a lot of blowouts, it was very back and forth, but watching these two guys go at it was just plain fun. On the surface, they averaged very similar lines. Tatum averaged 25 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.1 steals per game on 46.2/35.3/86.0 shooting splits. For Miami, Butler averaged 25.6 points, 7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2 steals per game on 47.7/29.2/88.9 shooting splits. Although Butler got all of the hype, Tatum’s consistency proved to reign supreme. Overall, this series was amazing and the NBA needs more of it.

Meh: The Warriors’ Defense

While I won’t say that they are definitely bad on the defensive end, the Warriors are not the number two defense that they were in the regular season. They’ve played against the 6th, 7th, and 11th ranked offenses in the playoffs by offensive rating. While this stat can sometimes reflect the defenses that those teams face because competition is limited in the playoffs, the Warriors were the number two defense by that metric in the regular season. However, the Grizzlies faced the 13th best defense in the first round, then faced Golden State’s defense without their best player, and still mustered a 110.2 offensive rating through that. They only decreased their offensive rating by 4.4 points from the regular season by playing two supposedly good defenses without their best player. Against Dallas, Golden State actually improved Dallas’ offensive rating from the regular season, as the Mavs posted a 112.8 offensive rating in the regular season and a 114.6 offensive rating against the Warriors. In the playoffs, the Warriors have the sixth-best defensive rating, with a gap of 4.9 between third and sixth. The Warriors' defense certainly isn’t bad; they wouldn’t have gotten this far if it was. However, let’s pump the brakes on anointing them as anything special. The past five Western Conference champions in order of recency have playoff defensive ratings of 110.0, 108.9, 111.9, 103.6, and 105.5. The 2022 Warriors have a playoff defensive rating of 111.5. The 2019 Warriors are the only team with a worse defensive rating and they lost to the Toronto Raptors, who had a playoff defensive rating of 104.4. They’re good, but certainly not a championship-caliber defense.

Love (and trust): Marcus Smart

For as much flack as he gets from the Boston and national media, Marcus Smart is one of the only reasons the Celtics have even made it this far. In the Conference Finals, he remained excellent, averaging 16.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. While these might seem like good numbers for a third option, they’re great considering he was playing through an injury and was their primary defender against Jimmy Butler. He stabilizes the offense and even though he had his poor late-game moments in games six and seven, he kept them in the series when it mattered and when they needed momentum. He always seemed to bail the Celtics out when they needed it. There aren’t many numbers I want to pull for him because this is a rare occasion in modern sports where numbers don’t tell the story and I don’t really think that they can. You have to watch the full games to truly understand Smart’s impact.

Meh: The Cap Table of the Miami Heat

This one might be a bit too forward-thinking in a piece about the playoffs as it fits more in an offseason preview, but given how bad the supporting cast was, the Heat will need more eventually. However, help might be tougher to come by than expected. Next year, four players (Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, and Duncan Robinson) will make a combined $113,240,468. The expected salary cap will be $122 million. Tyler Herro is extension eligible and if they can’t get something done this summer, the looming restricted free agency of their second-leading scorer will be looming over their heads for the entire season. While Herro, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent are still under contract, important pieces like PJ Tucker, Victor Oladipo, and Caleb Martin are all free agents. While Tucker has a player option, the Heat only have Oladipo’s bird rights, and Martin is a restricted free agent. Even if they were to bring everyone back, they’ll be well over the cap with access to just the mid-level exception. With there still being major holes on this team, namely a second scorer and bench frontcourt depth, they’ll need more than the MLE to address these issues. The need for more scoring alongside Jimmy Butler was shown to be the Heat’s downfall. If they can’t find that in-house, namely Herro or Adebayo, where else is it coming from? The Heat enjoy being the “dream-makers”, so maybe they can get another cheap find. Regardless, their conference is only getting better. If they don’t come back with more help, not only will Boston defeat them, but Milwaukee and Brooklyn are also coming back reloaded. In all, the Heat need help, but there’s just no place to get it.

10 Free Takes

1. As I said in my Second Round and Conference Finals preview, the Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA Playoffs.

2. The Mavs will go after a true big man this offseason.

3. Marcus Smart is the most important player in the NBA Finals.

4. The Heat are better equipped to trade Tyler Herro or Bam Adebayo than they are Kyle Lowry.

5. The Celtics have a better offense and defense than the Warriors.

6. Andrew Wiggins will have to play better defense than Draymond Green for the Warriors to win.

7. As I said in my Conference Finals preview, the Celtics' defense is all-time great.

8. This is the most entertaining finals matchup since 2015.

9. As I said in my Second Round and Conference Finals preview, Kevon Looney is the most important player regarding a Warriors championship run.

10. The Warriors will need to find another true big to win versus Boston.

Finals Predictions 

#3 Golden State Warriors vs #2 Boston Celtics

My Winner: Boston Celtics in six games.

Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum, BOS

Once again, we are looking at a series that is a lot closer than a lot of people think. Unlike most, I’m not picking Golden State, and also unlike most, I can’t see this series going seven games. The big names are out in this one, as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are set to square off against Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart. I don’t think the big names are the whole story, though. Al Horford, Jordan Poole, Rob Williams, Kevon Looney, Grant Williams, and Andrew Wiggins, just to name a few, will have a huge impact. As a whole, these two teams are the deepest and most complete teams in the playoffs and it’s only fitting that they meet in the Finals. 

For Boston, the road has not been easy and it was meant to be that way. In his attempt to establish culture, rookie head coach Ime Udoka has been quite vocal about being a basketball team and not a track team. That strategy, of not running from any competition, has worked. The Celtics didn’t duck the Nets, took out the defending champs, and then knocked off a gritty Miami team. The Celtics can hang their hats on their defense, as they boast the top defensive rating in the regular season and the second-best in the playoffs. This series presents a unique challenge, as the Warriors were the second-best team by offensive rating in the playoffs, setting up a matchup between an immovable object and an unstoppable force. The key in this series for the Celtics might not be Robert Williams, but Marcus Smart. Unlike Milwaukee and Miami, Golden State lacks a true, transcendent big, so Robert Williams is no longer a need, but a bonus. However, with the Warriors’ perimeter firepower, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown’s defense will be very much needed. The Celtics have to mix different aspects of what they’ve done in the first three rounds into one coherent gameplan. It’s like the perfect exam. From lesson one against Brooklyn, the Celtics will need to take their stout perimeter defense and interior attack. From lesson two against Milwaukee, they’ll need their shooting and smart passing. From their final lesson against Miami, they’ll need to understand the importance of closing and protecting the ball. If they can do all of these things, mainly on the back of their defense, they’ll win. 

One last nugget on the Celtics’ defense: 

Their defensive rating in the 2022 playoffs is 105.9. The past five eastern conference champions?

2021 Bucks: 107.6*

2020 Heat: 111.5

2019 Raptors: 104.4*

2018 Cavs: 111.2

2017 Cavs: 112.1

*won championship

The Warriors’ defense definitely isn’t as legendary as the Celtics’ defense, but it’s okay. The Warriors are middle of the pack in just about every defensive stat. They’re sixth in defensive rating in the 2022 playoffs with 111.5, eleventh in opponent three-point percentage with 36.5 percent, thirteenth in opponent turnovers with 12.8 per game, and eighth in opponent points per game with 109.1. The Warriors' strength has been on the boards, but they also played three teams that don’t really crash. The Nuggets have to get back because of Jokic’s lack of speed, the Grizzlies shoot too many threes and were worried about their defense, and the Mavericks lack a true big and just play run and gun. For the Warriors, their defensive faith isn’t in the team, isn’t in numbers, but in people. Sometimes that can be good. In the playoffs, however? Not so much. Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins will have to be superhuman, as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole have been struggling defensively, to say the least. The Celtics are unlike any other team that Golden State has played thus far. Only the Mavericks had a player that matched Jayson Tatum’s caliber, but nobody close outside of that to guys like Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Al Horford, and Grant Williams. The perimeter ability of the Celtics is tough to defend and only the Bucks and Heat, both teams with swaths of perimeter defenders, have been able to hang. Without Otto Porter Jr. or Gary Payton II, the Warriors will need big performances out of Kevon Looney and Klay Thompson to help out Green and Wiggins. The Warriors don’t have much on defense, but where they make up for it is on the offensive end. 

The offenses in this series are interesting matchups, to say the least. The scoring distribution is very interesting (see graph below) as the Celtics, who seemingly have less star power, have more top-heavy scoring. The Warriors, led by their stars, have an extremely even scoring distribution at the top. What I want to see is how both offenses adjust. The Warriors have the advantage in that they have four guys who can get you at least thirty at any given time. Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins will each present unique challenges, but the Celtics’ defense has solutions for almost all of them. The Celtics have also shown to be invulnerable to huge games from the stars. The Celtics absorbed gigantic performances from Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jimmy Butler. The question for the Warriors is whether or not Steph and Klay can “get” them a game. They’ll need at least two of their big scorers to be huge to have a chance. The problem for the Celtics? The Warriors can. The Bucks never really had a game where Giannis and Jrue Holiday dominated. The Heat never had a game where both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo played well and the Nets didn’t see Kyrie and KD play well in tandem even once. That is the unique challenge of the Warriors’ offense to the best defense in the league. For the Warriors, they haven’t had to play an offense this well-rounded. The Celtics always have at least four guys that can comfortably step out and shoot threes. They don’t have just one guy to focus on. When Brooklyn and Miami collapsed on Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart stepped up and showed out. Golden State will have to figure out whether or not they’ll leave Tatum in single coverage or risk a Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart outburst. In summation, both teams have diversity and despite the power of big names, the Celtics might be better at the top.

Celtics and Warriors points per game distribution for their rotations (2022 playoffs)

If I had to describe this series in one word, it would be versatility. Each team has a defined big in their rotation, each team has superstar scorers, each team has a defensive enforcer, and each team can run different guys in different roles. Although they match up well and both teams are evenly matched, where things break for me is with defensive switchability. The Warriors cannot switch defensively. No matter who is on the court, they have somebody that Boston can target on defense. Whether it be Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Jordan Poole, the Celtics have plenty of targets on defense. Who can the Warriors target? Derrick White? Payton Pritchard? There just isn’t anybody. Defense wins championships. I’m trusting this sentiment to hold up my prediction. This is very much a “pick-em” series and I wouldn’t be surprised if either team wins. However, in the end, the Celtics’ defense will push them over the top. So, I’m taking the Boston Celtics to win it all in six games.

NBA Finals Player Power Rankings

1. Jayson Tatum (BOS)

2. Stephen Curry (GSW)

3. Jaylen Brown (BOS)

4. Marcus Smart (BOS)

5. Klay Thompson (GSW)

6. Draymond Green (GSW)

7. Al Horford (BOS)

8. Klay Thompson (GSW)

9. Robert Williams III (BOS)

10.  Jordan Poole (GSW)

11.  Andrew Wiggins (GSW)

12.  Grant Williams (BOS)

13.  Derrick White (BOS)

14.  Kevon Looney (GSW)

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd