An NBA Second Round Roundup and Conference Finals Predictions

        After I took the final exam of my sophomore year, I looked back and thought about all of the things that I could have done instead of what I’d actually done. When we, as a society, are so focused on analyzing the past, it’s hard to live in the moment. We love to think about what could have been instead of what was and what is. This same theme perseveres in my view of sports. These NBA playoffs have had a lot of “what-ifs” and a lot of regrets for a myriad of teams, but here, let’s focus on what actually happened and what’s ahead of us in the Conference Finals.

Loves and Mehs from Round Two

Love: The Effort of Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid

The 76ers were once again bounced in the second round, but this time, it felt expected. Unlike 2018, 2019, and 2021, 2022’s Second Round saw the 76ers enter a matchup that they just were never going to win. In the past, they’d always felt like they had a chance, but this time, against this Miami team, it never felt real. However, despite that, despite injuries and doubt, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid still showed up for the Sixers. Whether it be diving for loose balls, or making things happen offensively, these two really tried to carry this team. Maxey, who was already emerging as a star, averaged 20.2 points, 3 assists, and 2.3 rebounds on 45/34/93 shooting splits respectively. For Embiid, he was playing through three to four different injuries at once and still managed to come back for the final four games of the series. He averaged just under 20 points and 10 rebounds per game and played far from his best basketball, but even just playing and giving his all was enough to extend the series to six games. The Sixers could’ve laid down and for the most part, they didn’t. The key part of that sentence is “for the most part” as this excerpt directly ties into the next one.

Meh: James Harden

I have never (up until Sunday night’s Mavs/Suns game) seen such a putrid showing from someone who, just four seasons ago, won MVP. He played at an MVP level through last year, but in the 2021-22 season, he has not lived up to his billing. Philadelphia gave up an arm and a leg to get him, seeing him as the Kobe to Embiid’s Shaq and the Magic to Embiid’s Kareem. However, after about a week of celebrating the trade and Harden looking amazing next to Embiid, it went downhill. In the 2022 playoffs? It may have finally come crashing down. With the exception of Game Four, Harden was awful in the second round and wasn’t much better against Toronto. He showed little to no effort in the Miami series and even with Embiid out of the lineup, could no longer take over as the number one option on a playoff team, let alone a championship-caliber team. He was a minus 28 in six games with 29 turnovers. For those unfamiliar with box score stats, that is quite bad. His future with the Sixers is something more equipped for an offseason blog, but he definitely didn’t help his case for securing a supermax contract this summer.

Love: The Celtics’ Defense

For the doubters of the Celtics, it’s been a rough playoffs. Not only did they dispatch the title-favorite Brooklyn Nets in a sweep, but they also took down the defending champions and best player in the world in a hard-fought seven-game series over the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo. They had the number one defense in the league in round two and boast the second-best defense in the playoffs behind their Eastern Conference opponents, the Miami Heat. Yet, when considering the level of competition that Miami and Boston have played, it’s not close, the Celtics have the advantage. In the series against the Nets, they clamped down on Kevin Durant and Kyrie and with the exception of Games 1 and 4, took them out of the series. Against the Bucks, they held their own against Giannis, who exploded, but in moderation. The Bucks' ancillary players were shut down past Game One and it was the Celtics’ offense that threw away games three and five, both of which probably should have been wins for Boston. They can guard one through five and have zero defensive weak spots in their rotation. Their worst defender is Payton Pritchard who is only playing twelve minutes a game and is used as an offensive spark plug. If they didn’t show it against Brooklyn, they proved it against Milwaukee: the Celtics' defense is historically elite.

Meh: The Phoenix Suns Attitude and Performance in the Clutch

The Phoenix Suns’ performance in Game 7 against the Mavericks is the biggest disappointment in NBA history. For a one-seed, who was the best team by far in the regular season to lose by 33 and trail by as many as 42 in a do-or-die game at home is not only embarrassing but shocking. Chris Paul choked. There is no other way to slice it. He scored one point in the first half and recorded his first field goal make with eight minutes to go in the third quarter and the Suns were down forty points. Devin Booker wasn’t much better, finishing with 11 points on 3-14 shooting. The game was over in the second quarter and by the half, Phoenix was down thirty. Combined, Phoenix’s two stars were a minus eighty. This game cemented Chris Paul’s legacy as a playoff failure and showed NBA audiences that Devin Booker is not yet on the level of fellow young stars Luka Dončić and Jayson Tatum, both of whom won their Game Sevens in dominant fashion. This will rightfully go down as the worst Game Seven performance of all time and for the amount of trash talk and petty moves that the Suns have pulled since their 2021 Finals appearance, there is no mercy for them. They talked the talk before they could walk the walk and it bit them in the ass. Winners are supposed to actually work, right?

Love: Game Six Klay

Death, taxes, and Klay Thompson exploding in a Game Six of an important playoff series. There are no other definitive things in life other than those and with regards to the latter, it sure paid off for the Warriors against the Grizzlies. In an extremely losable game, the Warriors knew that due to their reputation with a 3 to 1 lead in a playoff series, they had to win Game Six at home. Behind Klay Thompson and fourth-quarter heroics from the new Davidson College graduate, Stephen Curry, they did just that. I loved Jordan Poole’s reaction postgame and I love the Warriors' offensive energy that they played with while closing out the gritty Memphis Grizzlies. Since 2016, in Game Sixes, Klay Thompson is averaging 28.1 points per game on 49/54/82 shooting splits and is a plus 57 in those seven games. So, yeah, this Klay Thompson guy is pretty good when it counts.

Meh: Coach Bud

For as much as Giannis Antetokounmpo dragged the Bucks through seven games against the Celtics, it wasn’t with much help from coach Mike Budenholzer. Going into Game Seven, Grayson Allen was a minus 43 against the Celtics with a 113.8 defensive rating. The Celtics were targeting him on defense and everyone covering the games was saying that they shouldn’t start him. Anyone watching the series could tell that he probably shouldn’t even play in Game Seven. Through all of the evidence that he wasn’t a great option, Coach Bud didn’t bench him, didn’t play him less, but started him and played him 22 minutes. He was 0-6 from the field, 0-4 from three, and had one point. He was a minus five. Allen wasn’t just an anomaly in this series for Coach Bud, as he mismanaged minutes for Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Jevon Carter, and George Hill. Jevon Carter was a +23 in the first two games of the series, playing 20.5 minutes per game, playing great defense, and giving you 4.5 points per game on 60% shooting. After Game Two, he would play a total of 6 minutes for the remainder of the series. In his place was George Hill, who was targeted repeatedly by Jaylen Brown in games three and four and by Jayson Tatum in games four through seven. Lopez was too slow to cover the perimeter and when it mattered, the Bucks paid for it. Grant Williams had 27 points and seven threes in Game Seven, mostly due to Brook Lopez not being able to close out. When the Celtics went big, the Bucks didn’t stick with Lopez, but went to Portis, who is great when trying to combat a quicker, smaller team, but got bullied by Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Grant Williams in the post. As a whole, their strategy devolved into giving the ball to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday and forcing them to make plays on their own. He won a championship, so he probably isn’t going anywhere. However, once again, Coach Bud was outcoached in an important series, which is starting to come back to him from his time in Atlanta.

Love: Luka Dončić

I could only last so long before raving about Luka. Luka Dončić might be a top-three player in the league at 23 years old. This series showed that he can almost single-handedly carry a team if he has the right pieces around him. He not only took on the Suns’ defense but embarrassed them. Whether it was guards, wings, or bigs, the Suns’ defense seemingly had zero answers for Luka’s offense. If you’re too small, he’ll take you in the post. If you’re too big, he’ll lull you to sleep with his ball-handling and take a step back three. If you’re a defensive wing, like Mikal Bridges, he’ll body you up, fake one way, and embarrass you as he drives by for an open layup. He might look a bit stocky and slow, but for opposing defenders, he might as well be LeBron James, he is that good. At only 23, if this is the floor, his ceiling is unfathomably high. By the time he’s done, he could be top five all-time and those guys don’t come around too often.

10 Free Takes

1. As I said in my Second Round preview, the Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA Playoffs.

2. The Sixers won’t sign James Harden to a long-term deal and they’ll regret it if they do.

3. The Mavs are better equipped to beat the Warriors than the Suns would have been.

4. Jayson Tatum is a top-five player in the NBA.

5. The Heat have the weakest backcourt in the playoffs.

6. Spencer Dinwiddie can be a second star.

7. The Celtics' defense is all-time great.

8. The Warriors have the best offense in the playoffs and Jordan Poole is their second-best offensive player.

9. As I said in my Second Round preview, Kevon Looney is the most important player regarding a Warriors championship run.

10. A Tatum-Luka Finals would be the best for the league.

Conference Finals Predictions

#1 Miami Heat vs #2 Boston Celtics

My Winner: Boston Celtics in six games.

This series will be a lot closer than people are letting on. On the surface, the Celtics have just dispatched two of the top four title favorites, one of whom is the defending champions. The Celtics have the best defense in the league and two offensive stars, one of which is blossoming into a top-five player. On the surface for Miami, they are coming off of beating a nine seed and a Philly team without Embiid and with a putrid performance from James Harden. However, Jimmy Butler is the second leading scorer left in the playoffs behind Luka. On the surface, the Celtics should win easily. However, the Heat are a well-oiled and well-coached machine. 

The 2020 Heat gave the Celtics fits, mainly in the form of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. With those two still around and Jimmy Butler playing his best basketball in years, it’ll be a tough matchup. However, the Celtics are largely equipped for it. The Celtics won the season series and patched up the holes in their rotation that killed them in the bubble. The Celtics have added Derrick White and shed Kemba Walker, providing the defensive upgrade that they’ll need against Tyler Herro. Against Bam, they have made their biggest addition, adding Al Horford, who is a much better defender than Daniel Theis. If Horford handled Durant and Giannis, he’ll do just fine against Bam. This is all without mentioning the improvement of Robert Williams, who was on the 2020 Conference Finals Celtics but didn’t really play. The defensive improvements, along with the natural progression of the Jays and Williamses have transformed the Celtics into a completely different team and one that won’t be so easily put down as the one in 2020. 

Still, despite those improvements, the Heat are still formidable. They are the number one seed, carrying home-court advantage through at least this round, which means that the Celtics will have to win on the road in this series. For the Heat, they got the worst opponent that they could’ve possibly wished for in that respect. The Celtics have been the best road team in the playoffs, boasting the most road wins of any team left. They won on the road twice against the defending champion Bucks with their backs against the wall. The Heat also don’t really have home-court advantage with their well-documented weak crowd. Despite the lack of a true “home court” in South Beach, it’s not the arenas that play the games, it’s the players. Jimmy Butler is the second-leading scorer in the playoffs, averaging 28.7 points per game. He closed out both the Hawks and Sixers in dominating fashion and will present another huge challenge to the Celtics’ defense. Bam is still a problem in the middle and despite their lack of depth, the addition of do-it-all forward, PJ Tucker, might be their most important facet in a series win. They still have shooters galore, with Max Strus, Tyler Herro, and a resurgent Victor Oladipo highlighting this iteration of the Miami Heat shooting core. They’ve been excellent at home, where they’re 5-0 in the 2022 playoffs with an average point differential of 17 points. Despite these facts, they shouldn’t be so confident.

The Boston Celtics are here. Jayson Tatum has blossomed into a superstar and he is right behind Butler in playoff scoring averaging 28.3 points per game against tougher competition. In a span of two series, the Celtics have knocked off Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are a formidable duo, but not offensively. They aren’t on the level of the Irving-Durant and Holiday-Antetokounmpo batteries that the Celtics have already knocked off. The Heat have Tucker and Butler to cover Tatum, but they also have to worry about Jaylen Brown. Beyond Brown, the Celtics boast more depth than Miami with Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Derrick White, and the Williamses. The Celtics are proven road winners, so stealing at least one game in a lackluster playoff environment like Miami should be no problem. Rob Williams is fully healthy and despite a foot injury, Marcus Smart is expected to play in Game One on Tuesday night. The Celtics also match up very well against the Heat. Assuming they stick with the same lineup that they closed the Bucks series with (Smart-Brown-Tatum-G.Williams-Horford), they can match up well with the Miami five of Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, and Bam Adebayo. Even if they go big and sub in Rob Williams for Grant Williams, Al Horford has shown that he is versatile enough to cover every position at a high level, allowing Rob Williams to bang down low with Bam Adebayo. The Celtics have the worst offensive rating of any team remaining, but it’s barely worse than the Miami Heat as the two teams boast an offensive rating of 113.8 and 113.6 in the 2022 playoffs, respectively. The difference is that Boston played seven games against the playoffs’ best defense versus the Bucks, while the Heat have coasted against two mid-tier defenses in Philly and Atlanta. The Celtics actually averaged more points per game against the Bucks (105.6) than the Heat did against the Sixers (105.2). The point of showing these stats is to show that these two teams put up very similar production against vastly different levels of competition. 

When I thought about how to describe this series, I thought about baseball. Picture two hitters both warming up to face prime Aroldis Chapman. One, the Celtics, is warming up with a baseball doughnut, which are the weights added to a bat to increase swing speed and make the bat feel lighter. The other batter, the Heat, are warming up with a literal doughnut. One of these hitters will be able to catch up to Chapman’s 100+ miles per hour fastball, the other will not. The Celtics have been playing physical, playoff-level basketball for weeks while the Heat have been able to coast against the relatively bad and injured competition. Coach Erik Spoelstra will get his team prepared, but it just feels like it won’t be enough. Ime Udoka and the Celtics are going to set the physical tone of this series and will control the pace the way that they’ve been for the last two rounds. After they swept the Nets and Khris Middleton got hurt, the Celtics started to feel like the team of destiny. After they beat the Bucks, they’re playing like it. Tatum and Brown will shine and the Celtics will extinguish the Heat in six games.

#3 Golden State Warriors vs #4 Dallas Mavericks

My Pick: Golden State Warriors in seven games.

Both of these teams probably shouldn’t be here. Yet, because of weird circumstances and the basketball gods using karma to strike down the Phoenix Suns, here we are. The most interesting thing about this series is that the Golden State Warriors are the three seed in the West, yet will have home-court advantage for the rest of the playoffs. It really just goes to show how good the Western Conference still is, despite the juggernauts in the East. Both teams are coming off of wins over teams that could’ve easily beaten them. For the Warriors, they closed when they had to and prevented another 3-1 collapse in the playoffs. The Grizzlies, down Ja Morant, came out swinging to survive Game Five, winning by 39 points. Yet, the Warriors, “whooped that trick” in Game Six, closing out the Grizzlies in a game that was a lot closer than the score let on. For the Mavs, they pushed the best team in the league to a seventh game, which they were expected to lose. However, Luka Dončić and Spencer Dinwiddie delivered a “Luka Special” and the Mavs blew out the Suns in a historic collapse. So here we are, the Western Conference Finals in 2022 with two teams who weren’t featured in the second round of the 2021 playoffs. The Warriors look like the easy pick on paper, but the Mavs are more complex than the surface-level analysis lets on.

The Mavericks won the season series against the Warriors, 3 games to 1. Given, that each of the four games featured one of the teams missing a key player, it’s still pretty indicative of how the Mavs can really stretch them out on defense. In this series, I have a feeling that rookie Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins will play heavy minutes for Golden State as they are the only two players on the Warriors’ roster who could even possibly stick with Luka Dončić on defense. The Mavericks also present a big problem with their other pieces around Luka, as their top two guys beside him are both point guards. The Warriors went into panic mode in the Grizzlies series when they were trying to figure out who could cover Ja Morant. When Gary Payton II went down, they turned to Kuminga to pick up Ja, which didn’t really work, but then Ja got injured and it didn’t end up mattering. In this series, it’ll be tough for Stephen Curry to cover Dinwiddie or Brunson, and given their expanded roles, they’re going to be just as big of a defensive problem as Luka. The Mavs also negate a lot of what Golden State can defend. Golden State is a pretty bad defensive team, as the teams in this series boast by far the worst playoff defensive rating of the remaining teams, shaking out over four points higher than the Heat and Celtics. The stats might seem bad, but the eye test is even worse. The Warriors’ defense is getting so bad that it really looks like Stephen Curry is their second-best defender behind Draymond Green. They don’t bring much off the bench and guarding the Mavs will get really hard if Luka gets going, which he most certainly will. However, the Warriors’ offense is lethal enough that this won’t matter. Steph, Klay, Poole, and Wiggins drive this unit and with Draymond Green and Kevon Looney facilitating as bigs, they can kill teams from the outside and mid-range areas. Both of these teams are relatively thin with traditional bigs, as past Dwight Powell and Kevon Looney, the next traditional big in this series is probably Boban Marjanović. The thing about the Mavs’ offense that’s the most appealing, though, is their ability to play like the Warriors. The Mavs’ can shoot the ball, better than the Warriors in fact. It’s crazy, but the Dallas Mavericks have shot better from three in the playoffs than the Warriors. Among remaining playoff teams, the Mavs rank first in three-point attempts with 40.3 per game and first in percentage, shooting at a 38.5 percent clip. Meanwhile, among the remaining playoff teams, the Warriors rank third in attempts with 37.9 per game and second in percentage, shooting at 37.6 percent. My point is that this series is going to be an offensive shootout and the team who wins might be the one who can muster up any semblance of defense.

Defense? For the Warriors? When has that ever come in handy? Well, the Warriors have always been a solid two-way team, but the shooting can be really distracting. Draymond Green is a known defensive talent as the multiple-time former Defensive Player of the Year hasn’t lost a step at age 32. However, it’s everywhere else where they’ve lost it. Wiggins is solid, but he doesn’t really have anyone to guard in this series to guard outside of Luka, a task that even DPOY candidate Mikal Bridges found to be too much. Klay Thompson’s defensive falloff has been concerning as Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane have absolutely torched him in the playoffs. It’s not a slight against Brooks and Bane because they’re amazing players, but Thompson was regarded as one of the game’s best defenders before his injuries. Now, he’s a liability. Steph Curry has been survivable defensively against Austin Rivers and Tyus Jones, but Dinwiddie and Brunson are a level above them. The Warriors' offense might be the best it’s been in years, but they’ll need the defense to step up big time if they want to beat Dallas. Yet, despite their liabilities on defense, I’m still picking them. That credit goes almost completely to their offense. 

The Warriors' offense is just damn explosive. Their offensive rating is second to Dallas, but that blowout Game 7 win against the Suns is doing a lot of lifting there. Stephen Curry is averaging 26.9 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.2 rebounds a game. In other words, Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry. Oddly enough, his three-point shooting has been a bit concerning, as he’s only shooting 36 percent from three, a percentage that some players would dream of. Klay Thompson showed that he can still play at a high offensive level with 30-point performances in each of the first two series. However, it’s Jordan Poole who has been the new weapon. He went cold during the last three games of the Grizzlies series, but he’s averaging 19.3 points on 50/39/88 shooting splits in the 2022 playoffs and has proven to be key for the Warriors' execution when Stephen Curry sits. He’ll make both Dinwiddie and Brunson work as they now have to chase around Curry and Poole. Along with Andrew Wiggins’ 14.5 points per game, the Warriors have a lot of depth when it comes to explosive scorers. In the 2022 playoffs, Curry, Poole, and Thompson have each cracked thirty or more points at least once. Along with boasting the top-scoring offense in the 2022 playoffs at 114.2 points per game, the Dubs are proven winners. This Mavericks team has never been here, the Warriors have lived here over the past seven years. To be the best you have to beat the best and that’s usually pretty hard on the first try, especially if you don’t have home court.

With regards to that statement, the Mavs have seemingly already done that. They took out the Suns in seven in dominant fashion on the road. They’ve also won in Golden State during the regular season. That’s good, right? I don’t really know. On one hand, they’ve gotten this far by getting past the defending western conference champions. On the other, the lower seeded Warriors have unquestionably been the better team in the playoffs. Both teams have been playing some pisspoor defense in the playoffs, but the Mavs have only been marginally better on offense. In the playoffs, star power matters, and despite Luka Dončić, the Warriors still have more star power. I see the Mavericks’ situation quite simply and it’s that experience matters. The Mavs are a young team, with a young star, and a coach who doesn’t have much experience coaching late into the playoffs. The Mavs do boast the best offense left in the playoffs, with a 115.5 offensive rating, but not by a wide margin, as the Warriors are right behind them with 114.8. The thing that I’d hang my hat on if I were the Mavericks is that you have the best player in the series. The Suns’ defense, in theory, was a lot better than Golden State’s is right now, so it should be no problem. The problem is that Golden State has seasoned veterans who don’t have a reputation for coming up short (i.e. Chris Paul and Devin Booker) and they’ve been here before. I could see either team winning this series, but for Dallas to prevail and make the Finals for the first time in eleven years, they have to get another 20+ points per game scorer outside of Luka Dončić. In all honesty, they might need two. Dallas can stretch it to seven, but winning a Game 7, in Golden State, is a tall task.

Both coaches in this series have their flaws, and I think coaching will be much more of a factor in the series in the East. Steve Kerr, if he comes back, would be the best coach in the series. However, I don’t think that holds much weight when this series will devolve into running similar actions for Stephen Curry and Luka Dončić and having an offensive shootout. To me, whichever team defends the most will win the series. Golden State has a DPOY, has won championships, and has leveled up before. In the end, experience will be too much in this series and the Warriors should squeak by in seven games.

Conference Finals Playoff Power Rankings

1. Boston Celtics (--)

    The Celtics are still the best defense with a formidable offensive attack. The only thing that changed is that they beat Giannis and will get a healthy Rob Williams back. If the Bucks series showed anything, it’s that they can get a great game out of at least five guys, which only makes them better.

2. Golden State Warriors (--)

        The Warriors and Mavs are almost dead even for me. It was hard enough picking the series, but I have to go with Golden State because of experience and scoring depth. Steph, Klay, and Poole are more explosive than Luka, Dinwiddie, and Brunson. The Warriors being able to play marginally better defense than the Mavericks pushes them over the top here.

3. Dallas Mavericks (+3)

        The Mavs are a great team. They could easily be second on this list, but they are just so bad on defense. They had a great defensive Game 7 against Phoenix, but that was more about Phoenix missing open looks and collapsing and the Mavs’ offense than the Mavs’ defense. Great team, but not better than Golden State.

4. Miami Heat (-1)

I realize that putting the highest-seeded team left in last place could be seen as disrespectful, but I wholeheartedly mean it that way. This is disrespect. They haven’t played anybody and their only playoff success came in the bubble against the Bucks with an injured Giannis and no Jrue Holiday and the Celtics who were starting Kemba Walker and Daniel Theis. Their first two playoff wins didn’t impress me. The last two times they faced off against a true contender, Jimmy Butler got outscored in the series by Bryn Forbes. Take that as you will.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd