2022 NBA Summer Preview Part One: Free Agency and the Trade Market

        

         After the draft, the NBA offseason is really supposed to heat up. There was extensive reporting on the Nets (once again) falling apart and that this could be the end of them. There were reports from Woj and Shams that the trade floodgates would open on draft night and that this would be one of the most chaotic offseasons of all time. Well, those reports may have been for clicks as the only thing that’s happened so far is an underwhelming Jerami Grant trade and the regularly scheduled Knicks’ incompetence. However, it’s still early. Free agency doesn’t kick off until June 30th and teams are still reevaluating their salary cap tables. While the men in suits do that, let’s speculate about the summer of basketball ahead of us. Before the tip-off of the 2022-23 regular season, there’s still a free agent frenzy and summer league to be had. It’s summer but basketball is still on the mainstage of sports, so let’s dive into everything that the NBA summer has to offer. In this piece, we’ll go over free agency and trade targets. 

Flirting with Free Agency (and Trades)

The NBA summer regularly sees marquee players change teams and contenders rise and fall. This summer, it seems like more big names might move than ever before, as All-Stars, MVPs, young studs, and key role players could very well be on the move. I’m going to evaluate each big player’s situation and predict where they’ll end up.

Top Tier Talent

FA/Trade Candidate #1: Kyrie Irving

Current Team: Nets

Rumored Landing Spots: Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks, Knicks, 76ers, and Heat

Where He Should Go: Mavericks

Where He Will Go: Lakers or Sixers

If there was one word to describe Kyrie Irving’s last three years in the NBA, it would be drama. He’s been put through the media wringer, but deservedly so. He’s been noncommittal, unvaccinated, and selfish. He has missed more games than he’s played in three years, been an off-court problem, and forced out James Harden. His expectation of a full maximum contract is just unrealistic, but thinking of him passing on a partial maximum contract to take just $6 million from the Lakers? That’s even more unrealistic. Anything can happen with Kyrie, but ideally, he would find his way onto the Dallas Mavericks. First of all, it’s Texas, which means there is no vaccine requirement anywhere, which means apart from the one game the Mavs will play in Toronto, he’ll be eligible for all games. The basketball fit also makes a ton of sense. Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie thrived playing off of Luka, but imagine Kyrie Irving. That would be a 1-2 punch for the ages in Dallas. Especially considering Jalen Brunson will probably dash to New York this offseason, it makes sense for both sides. The problem comes in cap space and trade assets. The Mavs are currently about $7 million into the luxury tax with very few attractive moveable contracts. They do have all of their picks past 2024, but that might not be enough, even if Brooklyn has to give Kyrie up. The interest from Dallas also isn’t there. According to Woj on NBA Today, the Lakers are the only team with real interest. The Clippers, Mavs, and Sixers are out on him and the Heat are showing little interest. This is why I think the Lakers are the most likely. I also threw in Philly, despite their doubts, for the same reason as Los Angeles. This reason being that these are the only teams that really don’t care about off-the-court drama. To me, the only way that the Lakers acquire Irving is if it really gets dragged out. I cannot stress this enough, but most of these teams don’t have the assets to get a deal done. Feasibly, the Lakers would have to give up Russell Westbrook and the rest of the picks they have control of to acquire Irving in an opt-in and trade. I don’t think that the Lakers should do this, though. They are just one year away from having control over one more pick and being off of the Westbrook contract. Investing in another potentially problematic point guard doesn’t seem smart. Philly is more of a longshot because they already have a solid backcourt, but they always seem to be willing to risk everything for elite talent. They have more than enough assets to get a deal done, the only question is if they’re willing to go so far over the tax to potentially not be a top-three team in the East. Whatever happens with Irving will shift the league and I’m not sure I’m excited. It’ll probably end in a massive overpay by the Knicks when they inevitably miss out on every free agent, but anything is possible.

FA/Trade Candidate #2: Bradley Beal

Current Team: Wizards

Rumored Landing Spots: Celtics, Wizards, and Heat

Where He Should Go: Celtics

Where He Will Go: Wizards

Bradley Beal’s most recent quote suggests that he might actually take the prospect of joining Boston or Miami quite seriously. However, the prospect of a five-year, $246 million dollar contract just to stay in DC is too much for anyone to prioritize winning. If I was offered a quarter of a billion dollars just to live in Washington DC, I would do it. If you were given that offer, you would do it. Look, as cool as Boston or Miami landing Beal to put them over the top would be, there’s no way it happens. In Boston, he immediately becomes the much-needed third scorer and ball-handler to aid his best friend Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. In Miami, he would become the number one option on a contender with an elite defense. He would form a 1-2 punch with Jimmy Butler that would be tough to beat in a mess of an Eastern Conference. However, in life, it’s not morals or ideals that talk, but money. Money speaks louder than words and I would be shocked if Bradley Beal ends up anywhere but back in DC with a much larger bank account and investing portfolio. In short, Beal scenarios are intriguing, but he isn’t going anywhere.

FA/Trade Candidate #3: Zach LaVine

Current Team: Bulls

Rumored Landing Spots: Bulls, Heat, and Spurs

Where He Should Go: Spurs

Where He Will Go: Bulls

While the Bulls have already been informing teams that he’s planning on coming back on a five-year, maximum contract, he’s still a free agent and there’s been nothing out of his camp. He probably will re-sign with the Bulls and I don’t blame him for going back one bit. When they were healthy, they were a top-three team in the East. They have a nice blend of veterans and young guys, but they just don’t shape up well compared to the other top teams in the East. I think he’d fit best in San Antonio. Alongside Dejounte Murray, he would form a nice duo that can do a little bit of everything. They might not contend right away, but alongside LaVine, they have the contracts, cap flexibility, and assets to fish after a third star, namely a big man. However, he’ll end up back on the Bulls. Laker fans can dream and the Heat are always in the running for anyone, but nothing will happen. He’ll be back a Bull and will be stuck in mediocrity for however long he’s in Chicago.

FA/Trade Candidate #4: DeAndre Ayton

Current Team: Suns

Rumored Landing Spots: Mavericks, Spurs, Suns, and Pistons

Where He Should Go: Mavericks or Spurs

Where He Will Go: Pistons

Ayton’s contract negotiations with the Suns have been truly disheartening for every basketball fan. The Phoenix Suns have finally built another contender and once again that contender is being undone by a cheap owner. It’s been proven that the Suns need him to succeed, but they just won’t pay him. They didn’t extend him last year and he’s already been in more rumors with other teams than discussions with the Suns. Per Mark Stein, Ayton would “embrace” forming a dynamic duo with Cade Cunningham. However, the Pistons already have Isaiah Stewart and just drafted Jalen Duren. Those two, combined with their distance from contention, make the fit really tough. Basketball-wise, he’s perfect. He would play off of Detroit’s new young trio of Cunningham, Ivey, and Bey well, but he just doesn’t fit with their timeline. To me, Dallas and San Antonio make for much better destinations. San Antonio has needed a big man for years. Ever since they lost LaMarcus Aldridge, they’ve lacked an inside presence. Ayton would fill that role immediately and allow young players to feel more comfortable on the floor. In Dallas, he fits an immediate need, as we saw how they struggled as a one-dimensional offense against Golden State. Acquiring Ayton would allow Dallas to not be restricted to shooting 40 to 50 threes per game and give Luka an elite pick and roll partner. However, Detroit will have the cap space and money talks. Phoenix won’t match any offer and he’ll do what he wants and go to the Pistons. Detroit won’t contend, but they’ll be fun. In all, I really hope he ends up a Spur.

FA/Trade Candidate(s) #5 (and 6): Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert

Current Team: Jazz

Rumored Landing Spots: Heat, Mavericks, and Hawks

Where they Should Go: Mavericks (Gobert) and Hawks (Mitchell)

Where they Will Go: Jazz

These two will forever be linked to trade rumors after each postseason loss. Maybe this year something changes as Danny Ainge takes the reins in Utah, but I doubt it. Gobert is basically untradeable because of how awful his contract is and the fact that he’ll be making $47 million at age 33. He’s good, but not that good. He’d fill a need in Dallas and be an upgrade in Atlanta, but given each team’s salary cap situations, this would handicap them for years around their young stars. Mitchell is extremely tradeable, but they shouldn’t trade him. Miami makes a lot of sense for Utah given their young talent in Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson (that’s as far as I’ll explain with that one because it’s Utah), but you can’t trade someone like Mitchell too soon. They cannot give up on a young, dynamic guard in the NBA in 2022. Atlanta makes sense because Mitchell fits very well there and they have the assets to potentially get a deal done. However, Atlanta’s package would lack any starpower as it would be headlined by John Collins, other young role players, and picks. No package for these two make sense and the Jazz should just hold on and retool. Who knows? They might get a fluke conference finals run.

Solid Players

Those five (or six) guys make up the top guys that’ll probably hit the market come late June and early July. Other big names like James Harden and Dejounte Murray will likely stay put. Kevin Durant is such a longshot that is dependent on Kyrie Irving’s return that it isn’t even worth discussing. Outside of the top five (or six), there are some other solid players available. These guys are borderline stars who are just good players on solid teams. In this section, I’ll go through a lot of names and just predict where they’ll end up in a rapid fashion.

Jalen Brunson

Current Team: Mavericks

Where He Will Go: Knicks

The Knicks have invested too much into getting Brunson that they have to go all in. Dallas won’t match a $100 million+ offer to get him to stay and he’ll flee to New York. It’ll stunt the development of Immanuel Quickley and he’ll probably go back to being just above average and it’ll be a bad signing. Knicks gonna Knick.

John Collins

Current Team: Hawks

Where He Will Go: Spurs

The Spurs haven’t been mentioned much with Collins, but it makes a lot of sense. They need bigs and have a ton of assets and cap space to play with. They can extend him and put him in a position to succeed. In all, it makes a ton of sense.

Tobias Harris

Current Team: 76ers

Where He Will Go: 76ers

They can try all they want to trade him, but his contract is too bad. He doesn’t really fit anywhere and Philly isn’t willing to give up picks to dump him. He’ll play out his contract and be an elite veteran for cheap on a great team. For now, he’s an overpaid starter on a good team and it’ll stay that way for the remainder of his deal.

Collin Sexton

Current Team: Cavaliers

Where He Will Go: Wizards

Unlike most, I see Sexton as a point guard. He’d been playing the off guard to Darius Garland, but he’s better as a one. Washington needs a point guard and Collin Sexton needs an opportunity. Especially if they lose Beal, the Wizards could sign him to a team-friendly deal and Sexton would probably thrive. Alongside Johnny Davis, Rui Hachimura, and Kristaps Porzingis, Sexton would add another nice piece to the surrounding core around Beal. Sexton works in DC.

Malcolm Brogdon

Current Team: Pacers

Where He Will Go: Knicks or Heat

Brogdon is likely to be moved and I don’t blame Indiana at all. They acquired Tyrese Haliburton for cheap and just paired him with Bennedict Mathurin in the backcourt. The Pacers are getting younger and Brogdon, although relatively young in the league, is a veteran on this team. Miami can give up young assets to get him and he could take over for a struggling Kyle Lowry. The Knicks, for some reason, seem to be fixated on adding a point guard in their mid-twenties despite having a potential star in Immanuel Quickley on the roster. If they strike out on Brunson, Brogdon is basically the same fit at a lesser price.

True Role Players

Past the solid rotation pieces, there are also treasured role players on the market. These are old guys who serve as mercenaries looking for rings or young guys looking to prove themselves. Either way, in this section, I’ll be predicting where they’ll end up without any reasoning.

PJ Tucker

Current Team: Heat

Where He Will Go: Spurs or Bucks

Kyle Kuzma

Current Team: Wizards

Where He Will Go: Celtics or Wizards

Bruce Brown

Current Team: Nets

Where He Will Go: Trail Blazers

Malik Monk

Current Team: Lakers

Where He Will Go: Nuggets

Victor Oladipo

Current Team: Heat

Where He Will Go: Heat

Andre Drummond

Current Team: Nets

Where He Will Go: Lakers

Jae Crowder

Current Team: Suns

Where He Will Go: Spurs or Hawks

Myles Turner

Current Team: Pacers

Where He Will Go: Raptors

Mitchell Robinson

Current Team: Knicks

Where He Will Go: Knicks

Matisse Thybulle

Current Team: 76ers

Where He Will Go: Rockets or Trail Blazers (dependent on whether a potential Eric Gordon deal is three teams)

Russell Westbrook

Current Team: Lakers

Where He Will Go: Lakers, Nets, or Hornets (BKN/CHA dependent on Kyrie Irving and whether or not that would be a three-team deal)

What Happens Next?

My voice is one of many that can only predict what will happen in the coming weeks. At any point over the next month, the landscape of the NBA could change. Giant pieces will move and new contenders could emerge. While uncertainty is aplenty, one thing is for sure, and that’s the excitement that all basketball fans hold. No matter what happens, it’ll be a show. Free agency starts on June 30th and after that, the floodgates will open. All of the gloves will be off and I love it. In conclusion, free agency is back, baby!

Next up from me will be 2022 draft grades and a summer league preview.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd