It's Time For the Red Sox to be Sellers
Sports are a funny thing. In Boston, it feels like a millennium ago since the Red Sox lost to Houston in the ALCS. Since then, we have a new mayor, the Patriots gave us new hope, and the Celtics made the finals. The Red Sox were an afterthought. Yet, after a disappointing ending to their 2021 season, the 2022 offseason brought hope for the Red Sox. However, like all things, hope tends to turn into disappointment. Now, we’re past the All-Star break, approaching the trade deadline, and the Red Sox are churning out losses. So, I’ll make a bold proclamation: The Boston Red Sox need a full rebuild and should be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline.
Driven by Stars
The 2022 Red Sox’s roster construction has been awful. With the exception of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and the occasional production of Alex Verdugo and Trevor Story, they’ve been bad. The Sox bullpen has given up the sixth most runs in MLB and has the seventh highest ERA. The starters have been injured and aren’t getting healthier. On the surface, though, they stack up pretty evenly with the other contenders in the AL East. Following their July 24th game against the Toronto Blue Jays, the fWAR (Fangraphs WAR) of the top two hitters and pitchers on the Red Sox seemingly stack up well compared to other AL East teams.
fWAR for the top two hitters and pitchers in the AL East
By this metric, WAR, which commonly determines how good of a player someone is (or at least how we like to use it), Devers, Bogaerts, Pivetta, and Whitlock stack up to the Blue Jays and Yankees' top contributors. However, when you look at the rest of the rosters, it’s not the same story.
fWAR for AL East teams without their top two hitters and pitchers
When putting the rest of the roster into perspective, though, the Red Sox are clearly lagging behind. The Red Sox have the lowest total fWAR and the lowest pitcher fWAR in the AL East. Since having a seven-game winning streak snapped on June 27th, the Red Sox have a record of six wins and seventeen losses. Over this span, they’ve won consecutive games just twice, and have suffered fifteen of those losses to teams in the AL East. In the most important part of the season, they’ve tanked. With Devers, Martinez, Sale, and Story now all out for an unknown period of time, there is little hope. The rest of the roster is too weak to absorb those injuries.
Although pitching has been notably terrible, giving up 67 runs in their last five games, the offense has completely shut down in the past few games. Injuries could be to blame, as they are fielding below-average hitters in lieu of injured players. wRC+ is a measure of hitting that normalizes wRC, which is based on wOBA, which is another hitting stat based on the triple slash (batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage). wRC+ normalizes wRC to league average and run environment and 100 is always average. Although the replacements are bad in this metric, how have the starters been? The common excuse for the Red Sox’s woes have been the injuries, but what if they were healthy? Would they still be good?
Starters vs their replacements
Projected Starters if healthy
In theory, the hitting core isn’t actually that terrible. There are notable holes in two outfield positions and at first base, but as long as the pitching is also questionable, they don’t have a shot against the powerhouse Yankees. They’re good compared to the average, but not the Yankees or Blue Jays, the teams they’ll need to beat in the playoffs. They rank 19th in pitcher fWAR and are below league average in ERA+, which is ERA normalized to league average and run environment. It’s not that the Red Sox would be bad, they would just be worse than the teams that they need to beat. The third wild card spot is helpful, but they likely wouldn’t make it or compete if they did. Strictly statistically, they aren’t deep enough this year. They don’t have the pitching or health to go for it. The Yankees are on pace for 110 wins, more than even the 2018 Red Sox, considered the best Red Sox team of the last decade, who won a dominant 108 games. The Jays and Rays are both ahead of the Red Sox and are only gaining momentum. The Rays are 7-3 in their last ten, and the Blue Jays are 8-2. As injuries pile up, the poor replacements will only play more games. Minor leaguers will continue to be brought up too early (see Bello, Downs, and Duran) and the Red Sox will continue to lose. So, if injuries are playing such a big role, why should the Red Sox be sellers?
The Checkbook
It’s been well-reported that the Red Sox have been far away on extensions for Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. It’s more likely than not that Xander Bogaerts will opt out of his current contract and that Rafael Devers might not stay in Boston past the next two years. They want to, but to be quite frank, Red Sox owner John Henry has always been reluctant to spend when he needs to. Instead of restructuring the roster in 2019, he traded Mookie Betts instead of signing him to an extension and retooling around him. Last year, he failed to spend to both re-sign Kyle Schwarber and sign Trevor Story. He also made the Hunter Renfroe trade to save money in the long term. Imagine if 2022 Kyle Schwarber and 2022 Hunter Renfroe were in the lineup instead of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Bobby Dalbec. This year, it’s going to be the big one. He’ll lose Bogaerts, likely lose J.D. Martinez, and in two years, could lose Rafael Devers. Devers is the best player the Red Sox have had since Betts and has been likened to David Ortiz.
For this experiment, let’s assume the worst, and that the Red Sox lost Bogaerts, Martinez, Eovaldi, and at least one of Hernandez or Vazquez this offseason. What does the team look like? Jeter Downs or Christian Arroyo becoming true starters? What does the rotation look like? With a hurt Chris Sale and an injury-prone James Paxton? The Sox cannot rely on development from Kutter Crawford and Bryan Bello. If they lose Devers a year later? This team would be a disaster. They simply lack the replacements on the current roster or the willingness to spend to get better or even stay the same.
The Red Sox are reportedly using Matt Olson’s extension with the Braves as a basis for Rafael Devers’ contract, but that’s just delusional thinking.
Offensive Stats in Contract Year
Matt Olson signed an eight-year, $168 million dollar contract after three years of production with 100+ games played (plus the shortened 2020) at age 27. Rafael Devers has been a superstar for four straight years and just turned 24. This is without mentioning that he plays a more valuable position than Olson. According to Spotrac, Devers’ market value is $31.9 million per year. At Olson’s length, it’s a contract worth over $87 million dollars more. In short, the Red Sox are not close. This is also without mentioning all of the intangibles, like how Devers has been a part of two long playoff runs including a World Series title. He’s also been the face of the franchise over the past two years. Olson was on a cellar-dweller in Oakland and had just been traded to a champion. They should keep Devers, but it probably won’t happen. When the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts, it was a signal to be ready for anything, and this is what it was preparing us for.
For the impending free agents, it makes sense to trade them now, just to get something back before losing them to the market. But Devers and others, why trade them now?
A Barren Farm
It’s no secret that when Chaim Bloom came in, his job was to improve the farm system. Since 2020, the Red Sox have improved their farm system from 25th to 12th and now back down to 14th during the 2022 preseason. Their 2022 draft likely won’t help them too much, as the 24th overall pick Mikey Romero was picked well above his rank, but the improvements are there. If the Red Sox are only going to get worse, they mind as well improve the farm even more. Mayer, Casas, Yorke, Bello, and Duran are solid, but they aren’t the top tier of MLB. Considering the prices of players going sky high, the Red Sox could set the market for other potential megastar deals.
I hate the idea of trading Rafael Devers, as he’s been my favorite player on the team since he was brought up and I love him, but assuming he’s not going to be paid, it makes sense to consider it. Given that Juan Soto would cost 4-5 top prospects along with 1-2 young, solid MLB players, is it that far-fetched that Devers could command a slightly weaker package? Teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres are always looking to improve and each have premier young players and prospects to trade. The Red Sox could acquire a top-five farm from trading Devers alone. However, moving him now isn’t realistic. The more realistic moves are likely dealing away Bogaerts, Martinez, and Eovaldi.
The Cardinals, Mets, and Padres stick out as obvious destinations for Red Sox starters on expiring deals. By committing to a rebuild, John Henry gets to have a few years of not spending any money to set up a run when the farm is aligned with the major leagues. It’s a reset on two offseasons that’ll go down as regretful for the Red Sox. 2019 and 2021 were huge missed opportunities for a lack of willingness to spend. The message here is to not lose big stars for nothing and that if they’re likely gone, you mind as well get something for them. It is a shame to become a losing franchise for a little bit, but it’ll all be worth it in the end if it’s managed well. However, the Red Sox shouldn’t even be in this situation. If they were just willing to spend, they would be fine, right?
Conclusions and the 2018 Colorado Rockies
The 2022 Red Sox and 2018 Colorado Rockies are eerily similar, context-wise. They were also amazing considering the fWAR of their top two pitchers and hitters, but the rest of the team was quite poor. They would lose in the NLDS, but it was a preview that set the table for losing both Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, their starting third baseman and shortstop and two best players, within two years. This is what this has been for the 2022 Red Sox. Yes, they could make a late push, lose in the Wild Card or ALDS and still lose Bogaerts and then Devers in free agency. The Red Sox are not the Rockies, though. They have expectations and a championship pedigree. Boston is a sports town. They cannot afford to fail. The Rockies traded Arenado too late and had no leverage, resulting in a weak prospect package and having to surrender $50 million in their trade with the Cardinals. With Story, they just let him go. For Bogaerts and Devers, this cannot happen. The Red Sox need to get a good return.
The Red Sox shouldn’t be a selling team. If they had just spent on Schwarber and been more aggressive in the relief pitcher market, they would probably be fine. That’s just not reality, though. The Red Sox are not aggressive spenders and they never will be. However, the Red Sox have always been good at developing stars and making timely trades. Right now, they should be buyers, but without long-term deals in place for their two best players, there’s no advantage in being buyers. Right now, the Red Sox are in a tricky spot that they’ve put themselves in. They only seem to be willing to not spend money, so to maximize their current opportunity, they should be sellers at the 2022 trade deadline and commit to a proper rebuild.
Adam Zimmerman-Diaz
IG - @adam.zd
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