2022-23 NBA Preview: 5 Things I'm Watching For
Whenever I write about something in real life, I tend to find myself using the date or time of year as an anchor to base my thoughts. While most of my brain sees this as a weakness and something I should stop doing, the small part of me that I indulge in just tells me to go for it. That shamelessness is what carries me into this upcoming NBA season and I’ll be writing about whatever I want whenever I want. No more proper formatting or repetitive structure unless I decide to do it. With that being said, this blog will have some structure to it. It is autumn after all, and as the leaves of summer change, so do our sports. The MLB Playoffs are wrapping up, the NFL is in full swing, and the NBA is about to get going. I want to use this piece to run through some of the things that I’m excited about and some predictions. Basketball is more than a sport, it’s a lifestyle, and one that changes at that. So, let’s get started.
The Tank for Wemby
When surveying the landscape of the 2022-23 NBA Season, something jumps out right away. Unlike the past few years, a shockingly high amount of teams are battling it out for the worst teams in the league and a surprisingly low amount of teams are battling for the 9-10 spots. That being said, there is always a “why” behind every action, and this season’s “why” is french phenom, Victor Wembanyama. If you haven’t seen him play, or at least a few highlights, I highly recommend it. Some of his mixtapes alone justify why everyone who isn’t a tier-one championship contender is trying to get this guy. Wemby is the first franchise-changing prospect since LeBron James and this time around, nobody is trying to miss out. To put this into perspective, I’m going to separate each team in the two conferences into playoff teams, play-in teams, and the Wemby tankers.
In the east, the playoff-caliber teams are:
Boston
Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Miami
Cleveland
Atlanta
Brooklyn
Chicago
The play-in caliber teams are:
Toronto
My Wemby tankers are:
New York
Washington
Indiana
Detroit
Orlando
Charlotte
While that might seem harsh to New York, Washington, and maybe Charlotte, I just don’t see them even making a playoff push. That being said, they will probably be play-in teams. The reason I put them in the tanking tier though, is because I could also see all of them finishing in the bottom three of the conference. If you think the East is concentrated at the bottom, just wait until we get to the West.
In the west, my playoff-caliber teams are:
Dallas
Golden State
Denver
Phoenix
Los Angeles Clippers
New Orleans
My play-in caliber teams are:
Minnesota
Memphis (I think they take a step back)
Los Angeles Lakers?? (barely)
My tankers are:
San Antonio
Utah (shamelessly, I might add)
Houston
Portland
Sacramento (when are they not?)
Oklahoma City
While this might seem like Memphis and Portland disrespect, I just don’t see those two teams bouncing back. I see Memphis taking a step back down to reality after a season where they vastly overachieved. It’s not unusual for young teams who go far to take a step back. In recent memory, the 2018 Celtics and 2021 Atlanta Hawks reached great heights that they couldn’t replicate in 2019 and 2022 respectively. However, apart from the teams that’ll probably be in the dance, the amount of shameless tankers in the west is large. In the East, a couple of the teams that I had tanking will probably make the play-in. Here? Maybe Portland, but outside of that every one of those teams will be bottom eight in the league. They all want Victor Wembanyama, and I can’t blame them. He’s a 7’5” Kevin Durant who could turn any of these teams into contenders, who wouldn’t do everything they can to get him?
While we’ve seen this done before by teams like Philadelphia, Charlotte, or Cleveland, it has never been this rampant for one player. We might never see this again and it’ll be a true spectacle to watch.
The Consolidation of Contenders
While the consolidation of contenders directly relates to teams tanking for Victor Wembanyama, I still feel that it’s important to point out. This season, it doesn’t feel as wide open as it has been since 2019. There are two teams in the East with a chance and maybe three in the West (if you want to give Denver some sympathy) with a chance to win the Finals. The Celtics, Bucks, Warriors, Clippers, and Nuggets, at least to me, are the only teams who have a chance. How this relates back to the Victor Wembanyama stuff? The tanking teams shedding talent for nothing. All of the teams that I just listed got better after already successful 2022 campaigns. The Pacers shed Malcolm Brogdon and sent him to Boston for basically nothing, the Kings rid themselves of Donte DiVincenzo and he signed with Golden State, and the Rockets bought out John Wall who signed with the Clippers. Aside from those few great role players switching teams, there also wasn’t much of an effort around the league to take the talent away from the contenders. Each one of those teams is rolling into this season with a mostly intact first seven to eight guys (Sorry, Gary Payton II).
For the teams on the fringe of contention, life is going to be much harder when the talent at the top is so significantly higher. Teams like Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, and Philadelphia splurged over the past few years to bolster their rosters, but it likely won’t amount to anything this season because teams like Milwaukee, Boston, and Golden State are just too stacked with depth. I predict that teams in the middle of the playoff picture, like Atlanta and Dallas, might shoot up the standings as teams like Golden State, Milwaukee, and the Clippers sacrifice some of the regular season for the health of their older stars. I could very well see an Atlanta-Boston-Milwaukee top three in the East because Atlanta played everyone in every game, while Boston and Milwaukee scheduled rest days for guys like Al Horford and Khris Middleton. This could lead to a quicker burnout in the playoffs for younger, higher-seeded teams, as they haven’t been through the slog of the playoffs yet.
Now, I’m not saying that we’re back to 2015-2018 and that the two Finals teams are guaranteed, but we are far from the past few years of mystery. The consolidation of wealth at the top of the NBA always has ramifications and we may see some big movers in the next few offseasons. However, right now, we know who our contenders are. While this won’t be a completely unpredictable year, it’ll still be fun. The Cavs-Warriors era had its moments outside of the Cavs and Warriors. To a lesser extent, the NBA has reset to that era. Whether that’s a good thing or not remains to be seen.
The Tatum Year
For the past three years, when it comes to Jayson Tatum, everyone just seems to wonder when he’s going to take the leap to “MVP status”. He seems to always approach MVP level towards the end of seasons, but can never sustain it over a full season. After a Finals run last year following his best regular season yet, I think that this year is the time. The Celtics have 23 primetime games, second most in the NBA, so he’ll have the spotlight firmly on him. After a few years of the MVP exclusively going to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic, voter fatigue is bound to step in and award voters want a new star to shower praise onto. Tatum fits the mold pretty well. The main complaint of fans regarding the past few MVPs is that they’re both big men. Jokic and Giannis are huge and fans want a LeBron/Kevin Durant archetype again. Tatum’s game is aesthetically pleasing and well-rounded, plus he’s super popular. His team only got better around him and his usage will remain the same or even increase this year. So, what’s the problem? The problem, as it’s always been with Tatum, is consistency and getting off to a good start. As shown below, Tatum’s production early in the year is never quite where it should be.
For the first three months of the year, he’s a borderline All-Star. For the last four months, he’s a top-three player. The other thing, apart from his major improvement in most of the three major statistical categories and splits is how his production year-to-year has constantly increased over the past three years. If this trend can continue and if he can sustain it for the entire year, then I think this is his year. The Celtics are bound to be towards the top of the standings this year and if Tatum is healthy, producing, and the frontman of that effort, why couldn’t he win MVP? Last year, the Celtics' defense was notably ranked first and Marcus Smart won Defensive Player of the Year on the basis of him being the face of the defense. I’m not saying that he isn’t a great defensive player, because he’s probably the best perimeter defender in the league, but the numbers didn’t agree with that statement. Tatum likely won’t be the 2022-23 NBA scoring champion, nor will he likely lead in any major statistical category. Yet, I love his chances because of the brand recognition of the team. If he can be the best player on the best team that isn’t loaded with Hall of Famers (i.e. Stephen Curry on the Warriors), he could take the Marcus Smart route to the MVP.
Yes, I am being a homer. Yes, there is a better young player in the league who might have a pretty good shot in Luka Dončić. However, Tatum has been prying at this level for years now and I think that this is the year he breaks through. Plus, he does something that Luka doesn’t, and that is play defense. While I won’t dive into that aspect too much, other young contenders like Dončić and Trae Young are awful defenders while Tatum is consistently at the top of the league. Voters love someone who can do it all and is a fresh face and Tatum is just that.
The Return of the Superstars
Last year, basketball felt like it had a hole in it. Stars across the league were lost for the season either very early or before it even started. In this section, I want to explore just three of the players with lost seasons from last year that look to return to form in 2022-23. Who are they? Kawhi Leonard, Zion Williamson, and Damian Lillard. A part of basketball is the subtle similarities in clear differences. These three players enter three different teams that have very interesting outlooks for this season for three different reasons.
Starting with Kawhi, who returns to a contender that has only bolstered its roster since he left. What I’m curious about is how he returns offensively. Defensively, he’ll make a huge impact and should pick up the slack that struggling defenders like Ivica Zubac and Marcus Morris have been taking on. Yet, offensively, I’m stunned. He was one of the best offensive wings in the league before he got hurt, but my concern with his return to offensive prominence has nothing to do with his injury, but all to do with his circumstance. Paul George was quietly one of the better offensive players in the league last year, putting together his second-highest per-game scoring season since his 2019 third-place MVP finish in an injury-shortened year. While they couldn’t do anything in the play-in games, losing to both Minnesota and New Orleans, I just don’t quite understand where he fits offensively, especially considering that John Wall actually looked quite good in the preseason. He’ll probably take the reigns eventually, but it’s definitely going to be something to watch to see how he and Paul George figure out how to coexist after each went through injuries.
Zion is oddly in a similar spot. While Kawhi left a contender and returned to an even better contender, Zion left a team in limbo and came back to a team with lofty expectations for 2022-23, at least by their standards. Zion is interesting because when he played 61 games before the COVID bubble in 2020-21, he was amazing. He averaged 27 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 61.1 percent field goal shooting. While I won’t highlight his struggles at the line and from deep, he was an unstoppable force. What makes him so interesting is that he’s only 22, yet we treat him like he’s 30, and rightfully so. His injury history and the way he’s built are not friendly to the modern, high-movement, high-pace game of basketball. While he could propel the Pelicans to great things, he could also become their downfall. Brandon Ingram has clearly established himself as the number-one scorer in New Orleans, so how will Zion affect his development? There’s also CJ McCollum, so how will Zion affect his production. While Zion can be the centerpiece of a great team, but if he is in and out of the lineup again, how well can the young Pelicans do when they have to constantly adjust? What I’m looking at this year for Zion is not statistical progression, but health and playstyle adjustments. He likely won’t average 30 and 10 this year, but if he can play 70 games, that’s a win. If he can slow the game down and not have barrelling at people as his only game plan, that’s a win. If he can keep the weight off and sustain form, that’s a win. Overall, I’m extremely intrigued by how Zion’s consistency performs this season, in both play and health.
Damian Lillard might be in the most unique spot of any of these guys. While he was gone, the Blazers basically shipped out everyone around him, signed his replacement to a long-term extension, and drafted a primary scorer that will demand the ball as much as he does. Not to mention that Portland probably isn’t making the playoffs at all. For Dame, I want to see how he reacts. Will this be a Rajon Rondo situation, where he becomes so disgruntled that the team is bad post-injury that he throws a fit and demands out? Or will he flourish even more? This season will be a true test of Damian Lillard’s loyalty. You’ve been paid while being the definitive number-one option on a playoff team, refusing to leave for a true contender, but what now? Will you be able to be “loyal” on a team that’ll probably only win about 30 games? I can’t honestly say that I know that answer. This season will show Damian Lillard’s fight-or-flight mentality. While it may breed uncertainty, it also guarantees entertainment and I for one, am very excited.
The Implosions of Marquee Teams
It’s only human to see a car crash and not just drive by, but revel in it. You don’t usually wish disaster on anyone, but we love to watch. In the case of the Lakers and Nets, and the Sixers and Suns to a lesser extent, I can’t wait to watch. The Lakers are dealing with Russell Westbrook being alienated from the team, a roster lacking talent and poor roster construction. There’s a surplus of drama in Los Angeles and with LeBron getting older, Anthony Davis still being hurt, and a coaching carousel going about 200 miles per hour, it’s safe to say we’re in for an entertaining 2022-23 season.
In Brooklyn, it feels like it already fell out last year and we’re just witnessing the aftermath. Following a first-round sweep at the hands of the Celtics, the Nets are looking to add Ben Simmons to the fold and return to form. However, Kyrie Irving is even further off the rails, Kevin Durant is returning from a trade request, and Ben Simmons hasn’t played basketball in a year. Throw in a coach on the hot seat and we have quite the hot stove in Brooklyn.
Philly and Phoenix have high drama potential, with James Harden’s second season putting even more pressure on the team and Doc Rivers, there could be some drama. In Phoenix, their playoff failure is still very fresh and Chris Paul’s age and Jae Crowder’s trade request could also create some drama. There could be more, and there might be less, but NBA drama is never not fun.
The NBA Predictions Made Without Context
Awards
MVP: Jayson Tatum
Runners Up: Luka Dončić, Trae Young
DPOY: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Runners Up: Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard
ROTY: Paolo Banchero
Runners Up: Bennedict Mathurin, Ochai Agbaji
MIP: DeAndre Hunter
Runners Up: Wendell Carter Jr., OG Anunoby
6MOTY: Malcolm Brogdon
Runners Up: Jordan Poole, Luke Kennard
COTY: Nate McMillan
Runners Up: Joe Mazzulla, Chris Finch
Standings
East
Boston
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Miami
Brooklyn
Chicago
Toronto
New York
Washington
Charlotte
Detroit
Orlando
Indiana
West
Phoenix
Golden State
Los Angeles Clippers
Dallas
Denver
Minnesota
New Orleans
Memphis
Portland
Sacramento
Los Angeles Lakers
Houston
Oklahoma City
Utah
San Antonio
Adam Zimmerman-Diaz
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