2023 NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions and Preview

While being distracted by this past month’s round of film releases, the NBA Playoffs really sneaked up on me. Don’t get me wrong, basketball is entertaining, but John Wick 4, Air, and the Super Mario Bros. movie all releasing within just weeks of one another? There was no contest for what would be catching my attention. However, I am still a basketball degenerate and following what’s starting to feel like a yearly tradition, I’ll be laying out my flawless and foolproof picks for this year’s iteration of the NBA Playoffs. With no biases and definitely the most expert analysis on the internet, here are my picks for this year’s big dance.

Western Conference

1. Denver Nuggets vs 8. Minnesota Timberwolves

My Pick: Nuggets in 6

DEN X-Factor: Bruce Brown

MIN X-Factor: Mike Conley Jr.

While it might seem somewhat bullish of me to think this series could go this deep, I think I’m justified based on the roster construction of each group. Don’t get me wrong, it’s the first round and outside of the four/five and the occasionally competitive three/six matchup, there is almost never an upset, which is why I’m still picking Denver to win. However, for two teams that are heavy up front, Denver really has nobody to match Anthony Edwards in the backcourt. The star guard took another leap this year, upping his scoring to just under 25 points per game on 56.4 TS% and 36.9 percent from three. While he struggled against OKC and the Lakers in the play-in, in a longer series against an opponent lacking backcourt defense, Edwards could be in a position to take advantage of a weak defense. For this reason, I think Denver’s X-Factor is Bruce Brown. Last year in Brooklyn, his playoff series against Boston was a major silver lining and a big reason why he got paid in Denver during the offseason. He can guard every position outside of the center and I figure that Mike Malone will look down his bench and see Brown as the solution for Edwards. Towns and Gobert will give Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon everything they can handle, but in the end, I think Denver prevails. Their depth and Jokic’s electric play will be too much for Minnesota. However, Minnesota does have a fighting chance with a lot of ifs. Their bench depth is lacking, but at many times this year, the Wolves have caught fire from three and if they can get that for just one or two of the games in Denver, they might be able to throw some punches like they did last year against Memphis. For this reason, Mike Conley Jr. is my X-Factor for Minnesota. Not only will his playmaking be needed for Minnesota, but he’ll need to turn the clock back eight years and showcase his once elite shotmaking ability. The Wolves have a fighter’s chance to actually win the series, but I think it’s fairly realistic that this series is pretty close. Still, Nuggets in six.

2. Memphis Grizzlies vs 7. Los Angeles Lakers

My Pick: Grizzlies in 4

MEM X-Factor: Dillon Brooks

LAL X-Factor: Austin Reaves

If you follow the media train heavily, this pick might be shocking, but if you actually watch basketball, it’s one of the safer bets in this year’s playoffs. The Lakers are outmatched pretty much everywhere in this series, but they still have LeBron and Anthony Davis, so it’s a spectacle. However, I’ve watched way too many basketball games to count this season, so I’m betting on Memphis to bring out the brooms. Not only do the Lakers have no defensive solution for Ja Morant, but they don’t have a defensive solution for anyone outside of Jaren Jackson Jr. and that’s if Anthony Davis can actually stay healthy. The Lakers’ offensive depth is also fairly shallow. Don’t get me wrong, they can bring a lot of bodies onto the floor, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re productive. For this reason, my X-Factor for LA is Austin Reaves. His late-season “breakout” was heavily televised as the national media looked for any reason to bow down at the feet of the mighty Los Angeles media market. Following the All-Star game, the second-year guard averaged 17.6 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.1 assists on a ridiculous 73.4 TS% while shooting 44.3 percent from three. He’s shown to be a reliable three-level scorer and the Lakers roster is lacking heavily in the iso-scoring department, so he’ll be key against one of the best defensive teams in the league. For the Grizzlies, their defense is their signature, but so is their offensive depth. They have so many wings to throw at the Lakers, but the most important one to me is actually Dillon Brooks. For all that’s made of his antics away from the ball, if he’s making shots from deep, his game really opens up. If his scoring ability is tapped alongside Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies can become that much more dangerous. Truthfully, the Grizzlies really have like four other guys who could be X-Factors in this series (Konchar, Bane, Adams, and Kennard imo), but for Brooks’ relevance in the rotation, I went with him. That being said, the Grizzlies are just a much better and deeper team. Not to mention the Lakers are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league. So, if they go cold, or even if they aren’t red hot, they don’t have much of a shot. Through it all, I’m riding with the Grizz in four.

3. Sacramento Kings vs 6. Golden State Warriors

My Pick: Warriors in 7

GSW X-Factor: Kevon Looney

SAC X-Factor: Kevin Huerter

I almost feel bad for Sacramento. It’s their best season in 20 years and they run into this Warriors team in the first round. While the Warriors are a six seed, as I mentioned earlier, there are the occasional three/six matchups that produce an upset, and here, as unfortunate as it is for a team that just broke one of the longest postseason droughts in sports, the upset will probably happen. The Warriors will get Andrew Wiggins back in the lineup for the first time in months and while he might be rusty, he’s only one of many weapons in what seems like the never-ending arsenal of Golden State offense. Each game between these two teams during the regular season was close, with Golden State taking two of the three (the last one doesn’t count, I’m pretty sure the Kings rested enough players to get local high schoolers some run). While the Kings have been overachievers, the Warriors have been dangerous underachievers and unlike the Nets last year, this might be a lower seed that theoretically better teams might not want to play. Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry and while Klay Thompson’s production has dipped, Jordan Poole has emerged to be an even more bothersome scorer for opposing defenses. If the Kings’ defense doesn’t hold, this series could be over in quicker than seven games. However, I can’t allow myself to shortchange the Kings. After being clowned relentlessly for the Haliburton for Sabonis swap last year, the deal appears to be paying off in dividends as Sabonis turned in what’s likely to be an All-NBA, top-ten MVP finish this year. Alongside a resurgent De’Aaron Fox, the Kings’ once confusing collection of role players has come in handy as contender-level depth. For both of these reasons, my X-Factors for each of these teams is the pair of Kevons in Looney and Huerter. For the Warriors, what will prolong this series is their inability to cover elite bigs inside. They have really struggled to contain Embiid and Jokic this year and while they’ve faired a little better against Sabonis, it should still be a major concern in a playoff series with short rotations and where their center depth might come down to just Looney. For the Kings, it’s no secret that they’ll have to keep up with the Warriors’ firepower on offense, and outside of Fox and Sabonis, the responsibility will fall at the feet of Kevin Huerter. He’s had many explosions from three this season and he’ll need a few more if the Kings want to keep up with Golden State. I think that this will be one of the most competitive series that we see throughout the entire postseason, but in the end, I have learned time and time again to never doubt the Golden State Warriors and despite how good Sacramento has been, Golden State is still great. Dubs in seven.

4. Phoenix Suns vs 5. Los Angeles Clippers

My Pick: Suns in 6

PHX X-Factor: Josh Okogie

LAC X-Factor: Russell Westbrook

Just like the Kings and Warriors, this series will be one of the most tightly contested in the playoffs, but unlike that series, the name-brand superstars go past just one player. With Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul all being present in this series, the competition will be fierce and the coverage of it will be even more aggressive, but without Paul George, it’ll be hard for the Clippers to keep up. They need star power and without their number two, it might be too much of a load for Kawhi to handle. Enter Russell Westbrook. In a certain way, Russ has always been the most important X-Factor on every team he’s ever played on. From UCLA to OKC, and now back in LA, Russ will have to become the Westbrook that we had last seen in Houston for the Clippers to have a chance at victory sans George. As a Clipper, Westbrook is averaging 15.8 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.9 rebounds on 35.6 percent from three and 56.2 TS%. Those numbers are fit for a solid role player, but not a guy who was once MVP. However, the key for the Clippers is that they will be without Paul George and when Paul George has been out, Westbrook has emerged. Without George in the lineup, albeit in just a nine-game sample, Westbrook has posted 19.2 points, 8 assists, and 4.1 rebounds on 60.5 TS% and an unheard-of 45.9 percent from three. If the Clippers want to have a chance against a loaded Phoenix squad, they will need this version of Russ. For the Suns, their key is the bench. While DeAndre Ayton really hasn’t been able to guard anybody, that doesn’t matter in this series as the firepower of the Clippers is mostly in their wing depth. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paull will all have to be stars, but everybody already knows that. The one thing that might be fatal to the Suns is what happens when Booker and Durant go to the bench. There’s no secret that they gave up basically all of their depth at the trade deadline and for that reason, late-season spark plug Josh Okogie is my X-Factor for Phoenix. While he might not be offensively amazing, his defense and timely shot-making have been key for the Suns. My pick for their X-Factor was between him and Torrey Craig, which is no mistake as they’re probably the Suns’ only players that resemble typical “depth”. That being said, I’ll take defense over the offense for them as front-loaded teams need rugged defenders to keep everything together. For the Suns, that’s Craig. Looking at the series as a whole, if George can come back, the Clippers could probably win. However, assuming he’s out, and Kawhi can’t turn into Superman, I’ll take the star-studded Suns in six games.

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks vs 8. Miami Heat

My Pick: Bucks in 5

MIL X-Factor: Jae Crowder

MIA X-Factor: Bam Adebayo

Well, well, well. Here we go again. For what feels like the millionth time (3 in 4 years), the Bucks and Heat are matched up in the playoffs. While the last two matchups, including the Bucks’ sweep two years ago, had more intrigue, this one is more lowkey. The vibe change is because of how bad Miami’s offense has been. After two pretty embarrassing play-in games including one where Max Strus had to have a career game to barely beat the struggling Bulls, Miami really limps into a series against the top-seeded team in the East. Miami doesn’t just have one player that has to be great, but probably about six. To have any sort of chance, Jimmy Butler has to play like he did in the 2020 NBA Finals, Bam Adebayo has to magically acquire interior offensive skill, Tyler Herro cannot go cold at any moment, Max Strus has to shoot 50/40/90 splits, Kyle Lowry has to turn back the clock to 2019, and either Kevin Love or Caleb Martin have to become reliable bench scoring options. That being said, they don’t really have a shot. I put Bam as their X-Factor only because he has been so poor offensively as of late, but has always seemed to be decent at slowing down quicker wings. While Giannis can be defined as a “quicker wing” in the loosest of senses, Bam will have a full plate with him and Brook Lopez to worry about. Even if Bam shows up offensively, which is a big if, it probably still won’t be enough. For the Bucks, I’m pretty confident that their bench could win this series, but for the sake of making a compelling point about this series, Jae Crowder serves as their only real defensive option against Jimmy Butler and this serves as a good test for the inevitable Bucks/Celtics crash course that we seem to be on for the Conference Finals. Giannis is going to be Giannis and nobody is going to stop him in this round. When transcendent players like him play in first-round series, even against experienced teams, it’s pretty much a write-in. The Heat will probably will themselves to one game, but Bucks in five (feels weird not saying six).

2. Boston Celtics vs 7. Atlanta Hawks

My Pick: Celtics in 4

BOS X-Factor: Robert Williams III

ATL X-Factor: Saddiq Bey

Boston… breathe! While the entire state of Massachusetts was having flashbacks to the 2020 and 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, the play-in ended up spitting up the Hawks as the seven seed over the pesky Miami Heat. While I think the Celtics would’ve beaten the Heat anyways, the Hawks are objectively the better matchup. The Celtics won all three games against Atlanta this year including two pretty putrid performances from Trae Young in each of the two games he played. Their depth has and will continue to dominate against Atlanta. While Trae and Dejounte are a very good backcourt duo, the Celtics have the three-headed point guard dragon of Smart, White, and Brogdon. While those three are busy tearing apart the Hawks’ guards on both ends, the Jays will be making quick work of Atlanta’s lack of defensive wing depth. Inside, Clint Capela poses a unique threat for the Celtics and has played pretty well against them this year, but those performances were without a major roadblock in the paint. That Celtic roadblock is back for this series and his name is Robert Williams. The Celtics were 24-11 with Rob in the lineup and it’s no secret that he’s one of the best defenders in the league when he’s healthy. Unluckily for the NBA, he’s healthy and fully cleared to be a defensive wrecking ball. With Timelord healthy, the Celtics outclass Atlanta in every facet by an even wider margin. While Atlanta is really undermanned in this series, Saddiq Bey was always an annoyance for the Celtics in Detroit, so there’s no reason that he can’t do the same thing in Atlanta. As a Piston, he averaged just under 16 points per game against the Celtics on a Ludacris 50.9 percent clip from three including three 20+ point games. If there’s any Hawk wing that can keep up with the Celtics’ duo, it would be Bey. The Hawks are going to need all of the help they can get and Bey could be the bench spark they need. Other wings like DeAndre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be key, Bey has the most explosive potential. That being said, the Hawks are just too thin and the Celtics have been too good for this not to be a sweep. The Celtics run will start strong against the Hawks and they’ll clean them up quickly.

3. Philadelphia 76ers vs 6. Brooklyn Nets

My Pick: Sixers in 6

PHI X-Factor: Jalen McDaniels

BKN X-Factor: Spencer Dinwiddie

This series is funny because both of these teams probably shouldn’t be where they are. While Philly isn’t on Boston or Milwaukee’s caliber, their talent on paper and the amount that they try in the regular season still suggests that a third seed is a disappointment. The Nets are the polar opposite. After trading away their two superstars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, they’ve surprisingly thrived. Mikal Bridges emerged almost immediately as a superstar and their shooting has become top-notch. While I could’ve said that a guy like Joe Harris or Cam Johnson is their X-Factor, I went with Spencer Dinwiddie who has been their de-facto number two option. I’ve always loved Dinwiddie in offenses where he’s been able to set the tempo and control. Historically, he’s played with great players, so that environment came in the form of coming off of the bench. But now he’s been propelled to a starter level and enters the playoffs on a team with no expectations and nothing to lose. While the Sixers might be strong up front with Embiid, Harris, Tucker, and McDaniels, they aren’t strong defensively in the backcourt outside of De’Anthony Melton. While the Sixers' defense hones in on Mikal Bridges, Dinwiddie’s secondary scoring and playmaking could cause huge problems for the Sixers' defense and extend this series. That being said, Philly is still dominant. Embiid is the MVP and Harden is still a top 20-ish player, so the Sixers shouldn’t be too worried about losing the series. However, they have massive injury risk and have a history of not finishing off easier first-round opponents. The longer these series go, the worse for the Sixers. To me, in a series against a solid offensive wing, Jalen McDaniels is the most important defender on the floor. More importantly, though, he serves as important depth for a team that historically lacks bench quality. The Sixers will win, but I fear that the longer this series goes, the worse it fares for them later in the playoffs. That would be a worry, but their likely second-round matchup is Boston, who they have never been able to beat, so they can feel safe going all out in round one. That being said, the Nets are good enough offensively to get a game or two and this Philly core has let worse teams get the best of them before, so I’ll give ‘em two. Still, Sixers in six.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs 5. New York Knicks

My Pick: Cavs in 6

CLE X-Factor: Issac Okoro

NYK X-Factor: R.J. Barrett

I have full confidence that this is the most even of any of these first-round matchups and in a way, it’s nice that I’ve saved the best for last. The Cavs have all of the makings of a championship team that feels one piece away. Every position outside of the small forward is all-star caliber and they might have the best backcourt in the NBA with Mitchell and Garland. Inside, they have the modern reincarnation of the twin towers with Mobley and Allen. Off the bench, they really only have Caris Levert, but they are just a four-seed, so that’s acceptable. The Knicks resemble the usual Knicks playoff teams that have two stars with a bunch of other ancillary pieces that make up a chippy, yet effective bench. The Knicks are exciting as ever with a coach who would probably die to win it all and bring his players along with him right off the cliff. Thibs definitely outclasses J.B. Bickertsaff, but this series will probably come down to who makes the least mistakes, and coaching aside, that will always be the Knicks. Unlike the other series, here, I’ll make a prediction. I predict that Jalen Brunson will play up to the level of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, but it’ll be Julius Randle who falters and is rendered ineffective by Evan Mobley. Even if Randle is effective, the Knicks will need to find scoring somewhere and it’s about damn time that former third-overall pick R.J. Barrett shows up on a big stage. What better stage than the most evenly matched playoff series against a premier team? His scoring and presumed defensive matchup against Donovan Mitchell will decide this series for New York and all else equal, he’s probably the most important non-star in this series. For the Cavs, they just need chaos and Okoro serves as their most chaotic player. He has explosive offensive potential, but if his defensive length can actually show itself and he pokes the ball loose, creates extra possessions, and makes it harder for Randle and Brunson, he could show why he was also a former high pick. To me, the unspoken theme of this series is high-pick redemption and I am here for it. That being said, I’ll take the team with the best player on the floor. That player is Donovan Mitchell and that team is the Cleveland Cavaliers. Enough said, Cavs in six.

Predictions, Picks, and Promo

Every year, I’m always mostly wrong about what I say, but I’ll always just have one thing that I’m spot on with. My early guess is my Julius Randle take, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a Saddiq Bey 40-point game. That being said, it’s tradition to give my final award picks and playoff predictions, so here they are. Hopefully, the playoffs are as good as the NBA’s profit margins and marketing and not like the NBA’s off-court drama this year.

Award Picks

Who will win MVP: Joel Embiid

IMO: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Who will win DPOY: Jaren Jackson Jr.

IMO: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Who will win 6MOTY: Malcolm Brogdon

IMO: Malcolm Brogdon

Who will win MIP: Lauri Markkanen

IMO: Jalen Brunson (HM: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

Who will win ROTY: Paolo Banchero

IMO: Paolo Banchero

Who will win COTY: Mike Brown, Kings

IMO: Mike Brown, Kings (Mark Daigneault, Thunder)

Playoff Prediction

R1:

Bucks over Heat

Celtics over Hawks

Sixers over Nets

Cavaliers over Knicks

Nuggets over Timberwolves

Grizzlies over Lakers

Warriors over Kings

Suns over Clippers

R2:

Celtics over Sixers

Bucks over Cavs

Nuggets over Suns

Grizzlies over Warriors

R3:

Celtics over Bucks

Grizzlies over Nuggets

Finals:

Celtics over Grizzlies

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG: @adam.zd

Twitter: @TheSatBlues