2023 Playoffs: Second Round Preview, But Late

I don’t think I’ve ever been more wrong in a playoff prediction ever. Not only did multiple top-two seeds fall in the first round, but the method of how the winners advanced was downright odd. We had injuries, suspensions, blown leads, and plenty of upsets. While I waited for the first round to officially end to preview round two, it didn’t change any of what I’m about to say. So, let’s 100 percent correctly predict who will make the conference finals.

Western Conference

1. Denver Nuggets vs (4) Phoenix Suns

My Pick: DEN in 6

DEN X-Factor: Aaron Gordon

PHX X-Factor: Deandre Ayton

I had Nuggets in six coming in, but game one only justified what I saw in their final regular season matchup and what I was going to say here. Since trading for Kevin Durant, to say the Suns’ defense has taken a step back is an understatement. Since trading for Kevin Durant, the Suns’ defensive rating has risen by six points. To put that into perspective, 6.1 points is the difference in league defensive rating between the first place Cavs and 23rd ranked Utah Jazz. To have that much of a defensive fall-off is almost jarring and even more impressive is how much heavy lifting is on the shoulders of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. In a way, for the Nuggets, this series feels a lot like their last one. Against Minnesota, the Nuggets dealt with a team with a shallow bench and two offensive stars in Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. In this series, albeit with much better players, they’re dealing with the same team. For that reason, Denver’s X-Factor is Aaron Gordon. To win this series, they need to win with depth and the way that their so-called “third star” plays with the reserves will be key to keep Denver’s offense clicking when Murray and Jokic can’t see the floor or are targeted defensively. Speaking of targeted defensively, my X-Factor for the Suns is Deandre Ayton. The Suns’ center has been soft against premier big men competition, to say the least. To beat the Nuggets, the Suns have to at least slow down Jokic and that starts with a little effort from Ayton. Against Ayton in his career, Jokic averages 27.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 7.8 assists on 60.3/37.5/83.3 splits including a 41-point, 15 rebound, and 15 assist gem from this season. Jokic got 24 points and 19 rebounds against Ayton in Game 1 and the Suns are going to need a much better effort than that to stop Denver. That being said, that doesn’t even include how they are going to stop Jamal Murray, who always seems to go to another level in the playoffs. Coming off of a 20-points-per-game season, he averaged just under 28 points per game in round one and scored 34 in the first game of this series. While the Nuggets have the bodies to throw at Booker and Durant, the Suns don’t have the bench to deal with the Nuggets’ explosive offense. For that reason, I’ll take the Nuggets.

(6) Golden State Warriors vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

My Pick: GSW in 6

GSW X-Factor: Gary Payton II

LAL X-Factor: D’Angelo Russell

This is why this preview is coming out “late”. While I blame the NBA for starting the second round before the first round had actually wrapped up, ratings come before the fan experience. In that taste, I’ll take the Warriors in this slugfest. Neither team is particularly great on both sides, but I’ll take great offense over good defense. LeBron James will really need to step up from his lackluster production in the first round to have a chance here, whereas the Warriors just have to play exactly as they did against Sacramento to win. This series isn’t about Xs and Os, but about mind games. Going off of that, my Warriors’ X-Factor is Gary Payton II. The Lakers ran a lot of their offense around Austin Reaves in the first round, who I’d argue, behind Anthony Davis, was their best player against the Grizzlies. Like I said leading up to that series, Austin Reaves’ offensive production is paramount to the Lakers’ success. If Payton can slow him down, so go the Lakers. For LA, on that, I’ll take D’Angelo Russell as their X-Factor. If Reaves is taken out and James remains unreliable, Russell will have to step up alongside Anthony Davis. He has thirty-point potential but is often too inconsistent to be reliable. Against his former team, he’ll have to find some form for the Lakers to have a chance. The Warriors will be able to let threes fly in this series and Kevon Looney’s paint presence that allows them to do that will be key. Looney is as important as anyone, but I opt to highlight Gary Payton II moreso to highlight the importance of Austin Reaves to the Lakers’ offense. Both of these teams are annoyingly overrated, but I’ll opt to go with experience and offensive firepower over anything. This series is the competition to see who gets to be demolished by the Nuggets. The Boston in me is praying that Golden State doesn’t get hot, but don’t look now, because they’re four wins away from the conference finals.

Eastern Conference

        (2) Boston Celtics vs (3) Philadelphia 76ers

My Pick: BOS in 5

BOS X-Factor: Marcus Smart

PHI X-Factor: Paul Reed

I’ll admit it, I had Boston in four, but I’m writing this after attending game one. That being said, nothing that much changes for me here, despite the upset. I truly believe that Boston will win the next four games. The Celtics’ problem in Game 1 and really this postseason has been guarding guards with explosive potential. Harden went off in game one, but it would’ve been all for not if the Celtics didn’t get two blown calls and subsequently have two awful gaffes. For that reason, and the Celtics’ lack of motivation, I’ll take the Celtics going forward. With Embiid out, it’s not Horford or Williams, but Marcus Smart who’s my X-Factor for the Celtics. If there’s one spot on the roster where Philly isn’t as shallow as a puddle, it’s guard. Maxey, Harden, and Melton of all people went off in game one after a putrid Smart defensive performance. When guarded by Smart in game one, Harden scored 18 points and didn’t miss a shot. That has to change if the Celtics want to turn it around. For the Sixers, it’s Paul Reed A.K.A. “BBall Paul”. Without Embiid healthy or in the lineup, the Sixers need a force inside. While Embiid is out, the Sixers will need a presence in the middle. While Reed iced game one with two free throws, he was less admirable defensively. Jayson Tatum was getting to the rim at will and if James Harden can’t score 45 in every game, then Reed will have to stop the Celtics on the other end. With that being said, the Celtics lacked effort in game one, something that is fixable. The Sixers won because they made every tough shot when it mattered, which is something that doesn’t last. The momentum from that game didn’t feel right for Philly and that’s why, just like in the closeout game in Celtics/Hawks, I’ll take the angry Celtics against the overachieving underdog.

(5) New York Knicks vs (8) Miami Heat

My Pick: MIA in 6

NYK X-Factor: Josh Hart

MIA X-Factor: Jimmy Butler

I have learned my lesson with Miami in the bubble and I’m not making that mistake again. The seed doesn’t matter. Where the game is played doesn’t matter. All that matters is that one team has Jimmy Butler the Third and one does not. I seriously do not care about anything else in this series. While Randle and Brunson have been hobbled, the Heat have been able to take advantage despite Butler’s rough ankle roll in game one. Jimmy Butler is averaging 35.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.7 assists in the 2023 playoffs so far, doing it on 58.5/42.9/72.9 splits. He isn’t human and I’ll take that guy over the team with a habit of choking. While I could pick someone like Max Strus or Kyle Lowry, I’ll just stick with Butler. In sports history, there are rare occurrences where the fate of a team is saddled on one player alone. This postseason, such is the case for Jimmy Butler. The Knicks, on the other hand, don’t really have a definitive number one guy. That uncertainty on offense combined with their injury list that currently includes their two best players, I’ll stick with the Heat. However, in my eyes, Josh Hart is a player to look at. While RJ Barrett could be an X-Factor offensively, the Knicks will have to slow down Butler if they want a chance of upsetting an eighth seed. If there is one person on the Knicks’ roster who might be able to slow him down, it’s Hart. He was key in their win against Cleveland with his defense against Donovan Mitchell and he’ll need to do it again. However, there are just too many other factors that are working against the Knicks here. Their lack of ability to hit shots when they need to, hold leads, and defend the paint makes it hard for me to pick them against the hottest team in the postseason. So, in all, I’ll predict the Eastern Conference Finals rematch.

My MVPs and NVPs (Not Valuable Player) of Round One

1. Milwaukee Bucks vs (8) Miami Heat

MVP: Jimmy Butler, MIA

NVP: Khris Middleton, MIL

2. Boston Celtics vs (7) Atlanta Hawks

MVP: Jayson Tatum, BOS

NVP: Dejounte Murray, ATL

3. Philadelphia 76ers vs (6) Brooklyn Nets

MVP: Joel Embiid, PHI

NVP: Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN

4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) New York Knicks

MVP: Jalen Brunson, NYK

NVP: Caris Levert, CLE

1. Denver Nuggets vs (8) Minnesota Timberwolves

MVP: Jamal Murray, DEN

NVP: Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN

2. Memphis Grizzlies vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

MVP: Anthony Davis, LAL

NVP: Dillon Brooks, MEM (duh)

3. Sacramento Kings vs (6) Golden State Warriors

MVP: Stephen Curry, GSW

NVP: Jordan Poole, GSW

4. Phoenix Suns vs (5) Los Angeles Clippers

MVP: Devin Booker, PHX

NVP: Ivica Zubac, LAC

Playoff Player Power Rankings

1.  Jimmy Butler, MIA

2. Stephen Curry, GSW

3. Jayson Tatum, BOS

4. Nikola Jokic, DEN

5. Jamal Murray, DEN

6. Devin Booker, PHX

7. James Harden, PHI

8. Jaylen Brown, BOS

9. Anthony Davis, LAL

10.  Joel Embiid, PHI

HM:

• Draymond Green, GSW

• LeBron James, LAL

• Austin Reaves, LAL

• Tyrese Maxey, PHI

• Malcolm Brogdon, BOS

• Derrick White, BOS

• Kyle Lowry, MIA

• R.J. Barrett, NYK

• Kevin Durant, PHX

• Robert Williams III, BOS

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd

Twitter - @TheSatBlues