NBA Playoffs Second Round Wrap-Up and CF Preview Part 2

Hopefully, you read and enjoyed part one of this piece where I broke down the second round of the playoffs. While the last round was more chaotic and less predictable, at this point, when we already know what each team is about, it’s a bit more about analysis and less about playing a guessing game based on who I trust the most. So, before the round gets started, let’s run through the final two matchups of the postseason before the big one.

Eastern Conference Finals

2. Boston Celtics vs 8. Miami Heat

My Pick: BOS in 6

BOS X-Factor: Al Horford

MIA X-Factor: Gabe Vincent

Ah, here we go again. As a Celtics fan and Boston resident, it felt like the entire city knew that this matchup was coming as soon as the Heat won game one against Milwaukee. This iteration is a little more one-sided, though. Not that I’m unafraid of the Heat for the Celtics, but there are fewer matchup problems than there were last year. The Heat come into this series without two key pieces from last year with P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro both missing. While Herro might play, I’m not going to pen a guy who broke his wrist a month ago into this series like Bill Simmons did. Tucker was the Heat’s main resistance to Jayson Tatum and after his iconic game seven, it looks like that responsibility will now fall to Caleb Martin and an exhausted Jimmy Butler. With regards to Tyler Herro, we can look to my X-Factor in this series, Gabe Vincent. While I was tempted to go with Max Strus here, Vincent’s prowess on both sides of the ball makes him my favorite Heat player to be the second “guy” behind Jimmy Butler. 

The Heat need somebody to provide on-ball pressure because of Boston’s key addition: Malcolm Brogdon. While the Heat have added Kevin Love, the impact of him versus Brogdon isn’t close. Against the Celtics during the regular season, Love had a net rating of -17.9, easily the worst among Miami’s players with at least 12 minutes per game this postseason. Meanwhile, Brogdon boasts the highest net rating in the playoffs for the Celtics under the same parameters. Aside from net rating, the Celtics being loaded at guard provides them with more guys who have proven to feed into the Jays' effectiveness, and without P.J. Tucker, the Heat will need a stopgap to prevent their porous wing defense from spilling over onto the Jays. I believe that Vincent can be that stopgap.

The Heat’s offense also deserves some discussion and I want to discuss Bam Adebayo. He’s averaging 18.3 points per game this postseason but has only cracked 20 or more in four out of eleven games. He has a history of inconsistency against Boston, as he scored 25 and 31 points respectively in two of the seven games against the Celtics last year, but also scored ten or less in another four of those games. Without Herro and with Butler being as gassed as he’s been and with another year on Kyle Lowry’s tires, the Heat will need Bam to be assertive. In his way? A surging Al Horford and a resurgent and healthy Robert Williams III. It won’t be easy, but it’ll be necessary if Miami wants to get back to the big dance.

Speaking of Al Horford, his matchup with Bam Adebayo and his ability to take pressure off of the Jays is why he’s my X-Factor for the Celtics in this series. By net rating, he’s been the most consistent Celtic against the Heat and he’ll need to be able to move with Bam Adebayo and Kevin Love to shut down any of the Heat’s non-Butler offense. In fact, every Celtics rotation big in this series will be important. While he was selectively played against the Sixers, Grant Williams will once again be huge as another body to throw at Bam Adebayo. He can also stretch the floor and for a team giving Cody Zeller and Kevin Love rotation minutes, can make the Heat defend the perimeter and draw their bigs away from the paint. However, I’ve saved the most important player for last as Robert Williams III will be the defensive X-Factor of the series. The reason I have Al Horford over him is that they have a similar defensive impact against Miami, but Al offers much more offensively. Yet, I love Rob in this series. He was fantastic when he was healthy last year and he has never been healthier than he is right now. If he can play against Embiid and effectively help off of his man to double inside against the Sixers, he can do it against the Heat. It also gives the Celtics much-needed bodies in a series that typically doesn’t see them get all of the calls. 

Other than that, this series is predictably about the Jays vs Jimmy and that’s a battle I think the Jays will win. As good as Jimmy Butler has been, he’s just one guy. LeBron needed D-Wade, Jordan needed Pippen, and Magic needed Kareem. Nobody can do it alone and Boston has the tandem. Jimmy Buckets will get them two games, maybe even game one, but that’s about it. Celtics in six.

Western Conference Finals

1. Denver Nuggets vs 7. Los Angeles Lakers

My Pick: DEN in 7

DEN X-Factor: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

LAL X-Factor: Anthony Davis

This series shouldn’t be happening for so many underlying reasons, but it is. Nikola Jokic might be the second-best player in the world, but his roster is constructed around Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. This run has truly shown his greatness on another level. On the Lakers’ side, how does a play-in team get this far? The answer to the Lakers’ success, as always, seems to be LeBron James. He is the quarterback of this team allowing guys like Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Dennis Schroder to thrive. However, the key for this Lakers team has been defense and there hasn’t been a player more key to that defense than Anthony Davis. 

Davis has been remarkably healthy for himself and has been extremely effective on defense even if he hasn’t been a world-beater offensively. While there is nobody in the NBA who can “stop” Nikola Jokic, the Lakers might be successful if Davis can be physical enough with him and make him come out on the perimeter. They will need 2020 Anthony Davis back if they want to beat Denver.

For the Nuggets, it’s not really about Jokic, as he will be great no matter what, but the others. Jamal Murray always ups his game in the postseason and Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. have been great compliments. However, in this series, depth will be especially paramount and that’s why the Nuggets need Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to have a few great nights. KCP has been on a journey in the NBA, having already played for four different teams at age 30, but he’s still effective. To match the Russell, Reaves, and Schroder guard trio, KCP and Murray will have to excel.

Jamal Murray has been great in the playoffs and so has Austin Reaves. This matchup will inevitably come down to Jokic versus LeBron and here is where I make my boldest declaration about this series and that’s about who the best player in this series is. Nikola Jokic, at least in my book, is a lot better than LeBron James right now. For some reading, that might sound like blasphemy, but the two-time MVP that easily could’ve been the three-time reigning impacts the game a lot more than LeBron. His passing, shot-making, and ability to get anywhere on the court might have surpassed the king. Even if his skills aren’t up to par, they’re pretty damn close. 

Look, LeBron James is 38 years old and I really do think the NBA is trying to set up Lakers-Celtics. However, the Nuggets are just too good and a road team is yet to win in Denver this postseason. The Lakers’ run is a great story, but great stories have endings and theirs is here. I’m by no means confident that Denver runs away with it and this series is truly a coin toss, but if I had to pick, I’d pick Denver. The Nuggets have been more consistent all year long and around this time of year, consistency wins out. Nuggets in seven (reluctantly).

NBA Playoff Team Power Rankings

1. Denver Nuggets

2. Boston Celtics

3. Los Angeles Lakers

4. Miami Heat

NBA Playoff Player Power Rankings

1. Jimmy Butler, MIA

2. Nikola Jokic, DEN

3. Jayson Tatum, BOS

4. LeBron James, LAL

5. Jaylen Brown, BOS

6. Jamal Murray, DEN

7. Anthony Davis, LAL

8. Al Horford, BOS

9. Bam Adebayo, MIA

10. Robert Williams III, BOS

HM: 

• Michael Porter Jr, DEN

• Aaron Gordon, DEN

• Austin Reaves, LAL

• Kyle Lowry, MIA

• Marcus Smart, BOS

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

IG - @adam.zd

Twitter - @TheSatBlues