2023-24 NBA Preview: 5 Things I'm Watching For
Well, it’s back. After a break that feels very shortlived, the NBA’s season tips off tonight. For me, it’s bittersweet because of how fun the offseason has been. We’ve seen a boatload of player movement, more rookie hype than any year in recent memory, and the most speculating over contenders since the mid-2000s. While basketball is entertaining, the speculation around the game is what really makes it fun. So, I will speculate for the few hours I still can. As is somewhat tradition now, I’ll be diving into my five most intriguing things about the upcoming season and making some (definitely incorrect) predictions about the outcomes of the 2023-2024 NBA season. What harm can predicting do, right?
The Age of the Superteam (Supposedly)
At this time last year, I was talking about what I called “the consolidation of contenders” and I think that the trends that I outlined last year are even more prevalent this year. While I’d argue that there are more than three or four teams that could win a title, there aren’t many more than that. A few of the best teams from last year, namely the Celtics, Suns, and Bucks, all made moves that elevated the bar for superstar talent so much that it feels like not many others can compete. While the defending champion Denver Nuggets are very much still a contender, some of the fringe teams that I mentioned last year like both Los Angeles teams, Philadelphia, and Miami didn’t exactly keep up with the Joneses. While James Harden could potentially move a needle, as of now, there are realistically, once again, five teams that could win the championship next year. Like last year, I think that Denver, Boston, Golden State, and Milwaukee are pretty solid locks with the Phoenix Suns reasserting themselves into contention via the acquisition of Bradley Beal and the 2023 mid-season addition of Kevin Durant. However, many of the fringe contenders like the Sixers, Lakers, Clippers, Heat, and Mavericks have fallen much farther behind the top-tier teams than they were last year. It’s not a matter of current talent on the roster, but the lack of new acquisitions. Each one of those teams has at least two All-Star caliber players (shoutout to Tyrese Maxey), but is that enough anymore? Even with great benches and depth? I don’t know.
Among the top-tier teams, however, I don’t think that there’s one clear “superteam”. While each of these teams is great with the potential to be all-time amazing, I think that they’re a lot closer to each other than we realize. Each team has its strengths, but each has pretty significant flaws. While I won’t list them here (see chart below), the risk of each team balances them out from each other. The Nuggets didn’t make any real additions, but they were far and away the best team in the final four during last year’s playoffs. The others were good but made extra additions to get even better. While the consolidation of talent might be greater, I think that consolidation went to teams who were already great, not necessarily good, which has somewhat squeezed the “middle-class” of NBA teams. Think about the dozen teams last year that were a move away from true contention at the start of last year’s season. It felt like if one domino fell the right way, we’d have a brand new contender at any given moment. Now, if it isn’t one of those five to six teams making a move, then why does it matter? To me, I don’t know if or how many superteams were created rather if this year’s talent drain was more inequitable than last year’s.
Adam’s Official Contenders Pros and Cons Chart 2024 (trademark obviously pending)
Is this a bad thing? To me, it’s not. Instead of being able to predict a 90 percent accurate final standings in September like last year, it feels like younger and newer playoff-caliber teams will get a chance to thrive. If anything, this year feels like a bridge year to see if those superteams of tomorrow can translate their young but developing talent into wins today. While it might not make the races at the top exciting, I think that the mid-playoff and play-in races finally have some weight. This season has the potential to finally have some scary 6-8 seeds not named the Miami Heat and I’m all the more excited for it.
The Ultimate Youth Unicorn Movement
As I ever so slightly touched on in the previous section, young teams are going to be under the spotlight this season. In many ways thanks to Victor Wembanyama, the excitement for new young players is at an all-time high this season and it’s not just Wemby. Other unicorns at their own positions like Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Cade Cunningham are some of my favorite unicorn-esque young players to watch for this season. Many young teams employing and not employing these players will have serious expectations this year. Unless you play for the Charlotte Hornets, if you’re a young star on a team with other solid young players, your team has playoff aspirations.
While I’m not calling any young team a championship contender, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, and Houston Rockets have genuine intrigue this season. Other young-ish teams like Portland, San Antonio, and Brooklyn also have a bit of potential to be really fun. Within these teams, I’m not looking for stats though, I’m looking for an identity. While the rookie of the year race should be very interesting as we watch if anyone can upstand Victor Wembanyama, I’m more interested in teams than individuals going into this year. For teams like Orlando and Oklahoma City, this year is about carving out who gets the ball, who plays and starts, and how the offense is run. Will the defense be the story or will it be the swath of scorers that run deep into each of their benches? I think only time will tell. We already know about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner. I want to see how the young depth below them develops and fits next to them as their roles are carved out. Both conferences are largely wide open in the middle of the playoff table and it’ll be interesting to see if Orlando or Oklahoma City could crack the top four or five in their respective conferences.
Houston and Detroit have undoubtedly lower expectations but still have the talent to make a serious impact. Will Cade Cunnigham take the next step? He was unguardable in one-on-one last year when he was healthy, but can he stay healthy? Did the Pistons add enough around him to give their roster a boost? These are the types of questions that I’m excited to see answered as the season moves on. For Houston, it’s a little different. They decided to add two big-money veterans in the offseason, Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, but their fit with the team remains in question. Houston really needed a distributor for Jalen Green, but is VanVleet ready to not be as much of a scorer? Dillon Brooks is still up to his annoying antics and that might not be the best influence for a young team. Ime Udoka is back to coaching for the first time following his major scandal in Boston and with an impressionable team that’s already dealt with off-the-court issues this season could that blow up in their face? While the expectations of Detroit are somewhat limited by talent, Houston’s are limited by all of the dependent variables that their success leans on. If one of their risky buys goes wrong, it’ll tank them. Yet, I could see both of these teams sneaking into the playoff picture. Where? I wouldn’t bank on any position above sixth, but they could still make it. I think that it beautifully illustrates the positive side of so much talent consolidation at the top and I love that this is where the NBA is going. In short, let the kids play.
While I’m tempted to end this section here, I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss Wemby and the Spurs, even just a little bit. While I don’t have many team expectations for them this year, I am going to be looking out for a few players. First, there’s the ultimate unicorn: Victor Wembanyama. Not only is he set up to have the greatest rookie season since Shaq, but he also looks like the most complete young player I’ve seen since Kevin Durant. He’s a 7’4 demi-god and everybody who looks at him for less than a minute could tell you that he’s going to change the league. Given his age and team, though, just not yet. Devin Vassell and Tre Jones also warrant some attention. Vassell is every NBA Twitter user’s favorite breakout candidate and was just handed an extension that turns that breakout into more of an expectation. Tre Jones looks like a worthwhile investment as a playmaker and if the scoring comes, could end up as one of Pop’s best and potentially last late-round finds. Their frontline is rounded out by not only two of my favorite players on the Spurs but also in the league with Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson both holding down the power forward position. They’re very different, but their drive and tenacity remain the same. While Wemby will inevitably lead the team in scoring, I wouldn’t doubt that Johnson cracks the top three. Sochan is just a hustle machine who will create their culture on defense. They are one of the most fun and talented teams in the association that’ll somehow end up toward the top of the lottery next season.
If I haven’t made it abundantly clear, the youth movement isn’t coming, rather, it’s here. There are basketball unicorns running wild and there’s nothing better for the future of the sport. The implications aren’t huge for any of these teams this year, but there’s always an early overachiever and I can’t wait to see who it is.
(In my personal opinion, I’m putting my money on the Orlando Magic.)
The Cracking Foundations
While I talked about the impending implosions of last year’s volatile teams in last year’s piece, I don’t see anything too imminent this year. While James Harden’s PR Team may have you believe otherwise, I think that the implications for the next two years based on how this season goes are much more interesting. For this exercise, I want to focus on Miami, New York, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and a sprinkle of both Los Angeles teams. While other teams like Chicago or Toronto are potentially lined up for major changes going forward, the top talent and franchise cache at risk with the other teams holds more weight to the league at large. With that being said, the futures and fates of themselves and their franchise players will largely be determined by the outcomes of this season and we really only watch basketball for the drama, right?
The Sixers and Pelicans have the same fate but for different reasons. Both of them have a superstar who has injury issues (wildly different issues) and could be eyeing the door in the next two years. While Zion Williamson has more to prove, his age and productivity warrant a league-shifting impact. However, Joel Embiid is more likely to get moved and has a lot less to prove. If anything, Philadelphia as a franchise has to prove to Embiid that they’re serious about winning. The Sixers have failed to build a real contender around Embiid and if he’s serious about winning, he might see the writing on the wall with the minimal expected return for James Harden. Tyrese Maxey is a good player, but nowhere near the second option on a championship team. For Zion, it’s a bit of a mystery as to what he wants, but he’s had his eye on the Knicks for a long time now and New Orleans seemingly doesn’t have much outside of Brandon Ingram to move the needle. If these two stars were to get dealt or leave based on their teams’ underwhelming performance this season, it could seismically shift the landscape of the league and the franchises that they leave behind. The collapse of the Sixers isn’t imminent, as even if they traded James Harden they’d still be a good team, but the foundation is beginning to show signs of weakness. They don’t have a feasible path to contention without in-house improvement and Embiid could run out of patience if he has to watch the Celtics and Bucks and also Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo pass him up in the playoffs again. For Zion, he has a lot to prove but if he can prove his worth and New Orleans doesn’t improve this season, the Pelicans could quickly find themselves in the same boat as Philly. These two teams are at different points on the same timeline. Now, it’s a matter of who figures out how to reset it before it blows up in their face.
Miami and New York find themselves on the other side of this equation as potential buyers. Like New Orleans and Philadelphia, they are also at very different points on the same timeline. New York is a younger buyer and a team with assets to form an immediate top-five duo with any one of Embiid, Williamson, Anthony Davis, or others with established star guard, Jalen Brunson. Miami is on the other side of the scale, just trying to hold onto contention. While it feels like the Jimmy Butler ride is never-ending, he just turned 34 years old. That’s not typically when wings excel in their career. His aging comes on the heels of another expected, yet disappointing, Finals loss and a serious drain in their depth. Without many pieces to craft into another All-Star and a general manager who seems content, Miami could quickly face pressure to buy toward the deadline. I’m not going to write them off again, as they are the kings of manufacturing adversity and an underdog narrative, but past this year it could be time to face reality. There are some situations in which only championships heal and Miami might be one of them. Whether or not they actually become buyers is fascinating. If New York comes out the gates strong on the backs of Brunson and a Julius Randle bounceback, then maybe they stay put. If Miami looks like the NBA Finalist they were a few months ago, then concerns go out the window. However, any deviation from this expected result could create pressure, which smells doom for their risk aversion in a potential trade. With the consolidation of talent in the Eastern Conference, these are two teams that simply cannot afford to fall behind. Like Philly and New Orleans, it’s a matter of them figuring out their own situation and getting out of it.
Lastly, I want to discuss both LA teams. Both the Clippers and Lakers find themselves in a weird spot heading into this season. Like last year, their rosters suggest that they should be fringe contenders in the West. The Lakers theoretically improved their roster that made it to the Western Conference Finals and outside of LeBron’s defense, don’t show many signs of regression. The Clippers still have two of the best wings in the league and last year’s playoffs appeared to revive the career of Russell Westbrook. The Clippers also could be poised to land another All-Star in James Harden once they realize how valuable Terance Mann truly is (rather, is not). However, their age, injury concern, and potential chemistry issues hurt their value. How will the Clippers react with Kawhi coming back and Marcus Morris still on the roster? Can the Lakers stay healthy and can Austin Reaves of all people actually do it for a full season? The answer to these questions is beyond uncertain. Both of these teams could feasibly be buyers by the end of the year, but they could also be two of the biggest sellers. The Clippers are opening a new stadium next year and doing well this year will be paramount to the success of that endeavor going forward. The Lakers brand is more about winning and with LeBron on his last legs, it’s not an overstatement to say that they’re running out of time. Los Angeles currently represents a basketball franchise in a state of flux and while implosion or explosion is not imminent, this season will certainly throw them into a state where one of those two things definitely is. They won’t stay in flux for long and that’s a beautiful thing.
The Breakouts
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Like last year, I have once again arrived at the point where I want to drool over Jayson Tatum. However, this year, I want to highlight more than just my city’s starboy and discuss all of my favorite players who should take a step forward this year. To put it simply and to list it out, I expect these five players to either break out or take a step forward in the 2023-2024 NBA Season:
Jayson Tatum
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Keegan Murray
Jalen Brunson
While it took me a lot of strength to leave off guys like Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Devin Vassell, and Patrick Williams, these five seem to me like the best five to take a serious leap in their game. With all due respect to the honorable mentions, let’s get into the real meat of this section.
Jayson Tatum
I’ve already written extensively about him in my Celtics piece, so you might think that a double analysis of his game is a gluttonous endeavor. To you dear reader, I say yes. Yes, it is. Tatum’s injury in last year’s playoffs killed the insane run he was on, but it’s important to me to point out that the Celtics would’ve absolutely had a chance against the powerhouse Nuggets, thanks to Tatum. He was averaging a casual 27.8 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 59 percent true shooting while playing a mind-boggling 19 playoff games before being injured in the first five minutes of game seven against Miami. Had the Celtics won that game and he’d not gotten hurt, he could’ve capped off his best run yet. His regular season numbers were even better, as he put up averages of 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on 60.7 percent true shooting. With a better roster and another year under coach, Joe Mazzulla, Tatum has everything he needs to get his jumper back (3PT% has decreased each year since 2020 from 40.3 percent) and increase his playmaking with a much-improved roster. If the Celtics finish first and with the inclusion of a 65-game minimum for MVP consideration, Tatum could very well be the best player on the best team who wins MVP. I expect a top-seven player to jump into the top-three this season and he has more than enough to do it.
Cade Cunningham
Cade Cunningham allures me. Before he was injured for the entirety of last season, he basically repeated his rookie year with a slight uptick in numbers. To be quite frank, in his rookie year, the media were a bunch of idiots. I would include myself in this, but the fact that Scottie Barnes (ew) and Evan Mobley placed above him for Rookie of the Year was ridiculous. The media (again, myself included) were too obsessed with lanky playmakers and defenders and despite his 6’8 frame at point guard, Mobley and Barnes were better defenders and Barnes was on a playoff team. Yet, I remember watching just a few full Pistons games in 2022 and in each one, Cade did at least one thing that made me ogle at the screen. The obvious jump this year is in his jumper, which showed flashes at Oklahoma State where he shot 40 percent on basically six attempts per game, which would make his game even more unstoppable. In the league, it’s been his only real hole as it’s hovered around 30 percent on five attempts. Like Tatum, Cunningham gets pretty much everything he wants going to the rim and Cunningham’s playmaking puts him a cut above other young guards. However, to take that next leap, I’d love to see his attempts go back up to six and exceed that number at a clip of around 35 percent. Cade will likely lead his team in assists, points, shot attempts, and touches, so I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do with the ball almost exclusively in his hands.
Paolo Banchero
While it’s not intentional in the choice of back-to-back number-one picks, the intrigue of both very much is. Like Cade, Paolo is looking to take the “superstar” step ahead of schedule. Unlike Cade Cunningham, Paolo is on a team with real playoff expectations. The obvious leap for me with Paolo is how his shot selection improves. Paolo was just outside of the top 20 in shot attempts from 15-19 feet despite averaging just under 16 field goal attempts per game. It’s not that he needs to cool off from taking long mid-range shots but you don’t need a mathematician to tell you that shooting just 36.1 percent from that range is inefficient. Compounded with shooting sub-30 percent from three and it’s kind of a miracle that he managed 20 points per game last season. His shooting numbers will need to rise from 42.7/29.8/73.7 splits and his shot selection will need to improve, but that’s what young players typically figure out in year two, so I’m not too concerned. What I’m really looking for is some long-run endurance. In his last 30 games of the season, every metric for him dropped with the exception of rebounds, which were up a tick. His splits also dropped dramatically while having his minutes cut down. I would attribute this to a rookie adjusting to the NBA, but as Orlando’s playoff hopes grow, it’ll be crucial for them and Paolo that Banchero is able to last deep into April. Despite the common rookie concerns, I think that there’s a lot to love with Paolo’s year two potential. Like Cade and Tatum, he gets pretty much everything going towards the rim and is a super athlete. He has every admirable skill of a scorer and should be in for a huge year two alongside always-improving Franz Wagner. Bet on Paolo and the Magic to do some big things this season.
Keegan Murray
We have reached my preseason overreaction pick. I’ve always been high on Murray, and when he gets the ball, he’s been excellent. In the one actual preseason game in which he got to play serious minutes, Murray put up 24 points, 8 rebounds, two assists, and two steals on 55 percent shooting while also sinking a trio of threes. In his rookie season, he was mainly a compliment to the Fox-Sabonis duo that propelled the Kings forward. He averaged under 10 shots per game, but shot 45 percent from the field and 41 percent from three with 12 points per game, which are encouraging numbers from a guy who serves mostly as a versatile defensive spark plug. In the playoffs, while disappointing for the Kings, Murray was huge in the last four games, when he got to play an average of just over 35 minutes per game and averaged 14.5 points and 8 rebounds on 51.1 percent field goal shooting and 45.8 percent from three. With Sabonis projected to have a decreased role in the frontcourt, Murray could find himself with an uptick in minutes and attempts. The number four pick from a year ago has boatloads of potential and hopefully, that finally meets opportunity. I’ll be praying that Mike Brown comes to his senses and trusts Murray a little bit more this season. While he isn’t primed for a superstar or even a star breakout, these are the types of seasons that set up long and fruitful careers. Hopefully, Murray can have one of those seasons.
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Jalen Brunson
This has been a popular take for almost three years now, but Jalen Brunson is still disrespected by everyone online and in the basketball world. If the 2022 playoffs didn’t prove that he’s a star, then the 2023 playoffs absolutely did. Even in the regular season, how he didn’t even make the All-Star team is jarring to me. However, playoff averages of 27.8 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds will propel you into star conversations. At this point, he’s by far the Knicks' best player, and assuming they keep the same roster heading into opening night, Brunson is primed for a year of statistical improvement that closer aligns with his talent. This isn’t necessarily a breakout pick from a skill standpoint, as I think he’s pretty much at his peak, but more so that a season that repeats his playoff performance would finally let him break out of the box that basketball fans have trapped him in. Brunson isn’t a decent playoff team’s second option, but the leader of a fringe contender. Will he average 30 and 10? Probably not. However, 26/10/5 is not out of the question for Brunson. I think that he’ll lead the Knicks to a top-four finish with All-Star and All-NBA team selections to go along with it. It’s a guy who’ll look like he’s improved massively, but really, like what needs to happen for Murray, the potential is meeting opportunity. If it happens, it’ll be beautiful. If Julius Randle gets in the way again, then it’d become something that Knicks fans aren’t too keen on talking about. Hopefully, Thibs lets Brunson lead the team and take them to new heights. If he doesn’t, then Brunson might once again be used incorrectly on a team that falters in the first two rounds.
A Healthy League
While this is definitely premature, I love that for the first time in recent memory, there aren’t any major injuries to NBA stars to start the season. Outside of Lonzo Ball’s unfortunate knee injuries which are year-to-year at this point, there’s nobody out long-term to start the season. From Kawhi to Zion, we’ll be seeing everyone to start the season. While they certainly will not all finish the season, it’ll be interesting to see a fully even playing field when it comes to health, especially early in the season. Outside of two unfortunate short-term injuries for the Suns on opening night and a little nick to Draymond Green, everyone is healthy. Despite this, early matchups between contenders will have little excuses and could be very relevant to late-season play. I can’t remember the last time that injuries weren’t an excuse for at least half the league on opening night. It also allows the fans to see exactly how injuries affect a team when the team is actually playing around the established stars. Especially considering the new anti-load management rules, this season is a good litmus test for future seasons regarding the true importance of load management. Early on, we should see how correct the league was in its assessment that load management isn’t good for the game. Good health could also provide the NBA with peak versions of stars like Kawhi Leonard, Ben Simmons, Zion Williamson, and Kyrie Irving again and as a basketball fan, I am pumped for that. Hopefully, medical staffs don’t take this time off and stay ready so that a large quantities of stars don’t have to miss an unnecessary amount of time again.
Conclusions and Predictions
Every year is exciting for the NBA and every year I’ll find ways to proclaim how that year is setting up the best season that we’ve seen in years. However, this year there’s just something special in the air. Very few teams are middle of the road, very few teams are bad, but very few teams are great. There are legitimate question marks everywhere in the league this year and it feels like at least half of the league could be a factor this season. For basketball fans, it means another year of unpredictable entertainment with newer stars and great teams to get us through it. I can’t wait. With that being said, we’ve now reached the point of the preview where I get to make my extremely accurate and realistic predictions. With that being said, long live the NBA, long live Adam Silver, and long live February 2020 Jayson Tatum.
Awards
MVP: Jayson Tatum
Runners Up: Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry
DPOY: Rudy Gobert
Runners Up: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama
ROTY: Victor Wembanyama
Runners Up: Chet Holmgren, Ausar Thompson
MIP: Cade Cunningham
Runners Up: Devin Vassell, Paolo Banchero
6MOTY: Chris Paul
Runners Up: Jordan Clarkson, Immanuel Quickley
COTY: Will Hardy
Runners Up: Jamahl Mosley, Joe Mazzulla
Standings
East:
Boston
Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Cleveland
New York
Brooklyn
Miami
Orlando
Atlanta
Toronto
Indiana
Chicago
Detroit
Washington
Charlotte
West:
Denver
Phoenix
Golden State
Memphis
LA Clippers
Minnesota
Utah
Dallas
Sacramento
Oklahoma City
LA Lakers
New Orleans
Houston
Portland
San Antonio
All-NBA Teams
1st:
Stephen Curry, GS
Jayson Tatum, BOS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
Nikola Jokic, DEN
Joel Embiid, PHI
2nd:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
Jalen Brunson, NYK
Devin Booker, PHX
Kevin Durant, PHX
Luka Doncic, DAL
3rd:
LeBron James, LAL
Donovan Mitchell, CLE
Anthony Edwards, MIN
Jaylen Brown, BOS
Paul George, LAC
Adam Zimmerman-Diaz
Twitter - @TheSatBlues
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