The 2023-24 Boston Celtics are stacked. Is that a good thing? -- 2023-24 Boston Celtics Preview

The 2022-2023 Boston Celtics broke me. While I usually start these pieces with a personal anecdote about sports and life, it’s hard to describe how quickly my love for writing about sports faded away as quickly as the Celtics pulled at my heartstrings. I needed to step back from putting too much thought into the game I grew up loving. However, during my time away from the writing game, to my surprise, the Celtics were actively looking at ways to improve and landed a few All-Stars while parting ways with a couple of franchise mainstays. While change was expected, this much is unprecedented, at least in this decade. 

In many ways, this summer is like the summer of 2007 for the Celtics. In many ways, it’s not. No matter where you fall in the 2008 championship delusion, the last time the Celtics added two All-Stars in a meaningful way without hiccups resulted in a banner year. However, it’s worth mentioning that the last time they added two All-Stars in general, it resulted in a gut-wrenching loss to one of the best versions of LeBron James in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals. All of this is to say that the Celtics and adding boatloads of talent has had mixed results in recent years. While the Celtics are still looking to avenge their 2022 Finals loss and 2023 was disappointing, the hype placed upon them this year is warranted. They’re no 2017 Golden State Warriors, but I’m about to dive deeper into why they might be pretty damn close.

The Top Six

It’s no secret that the talk of the town has been the Celtics' best six guys being better than anybody else’s top six, which has been quite warranted. A Tatum-Brown-Holiday-Porzingis-White-Horford sextet is objectively the best in the NBA right now, but the more impressive thing to me is the balance in that group of six. A few years ago, back when he held the title of head coach, Brad Stevens said that basketball isn’t played with five positions, but with three designations that basically dumbed the game down to guards, wings, and bigs. The Celtics’ top six has two guards, two wings, and two bigs. As a purple titan would say, it’s perfectly balanced. The flexibility between lineups utilizing these six players will be so key come playoff time. While the past two iterations of the Celtics had to worry about Marcus Smart’s antics or Robert Williams’ immobility on the perimeter and questionable offensive fit, these six guys are all interchangeable. Outside of Porzingis being a bit slower than desired in his pick-and-roll defense, every player in this top six can seemingly play both sides of the ball and stretch the floor on offense. Whether you need to go big or small, need defense or shooting, these six can get it done against anybody that you might face in the playoffs. So, if they’re so great, what’s the concern? 

As the concern usually is with the Celtics, it’s that one or two of these players are injury-prone. Kristaps Porzingis’ injury history and Al Horford’s age are not working in the Celtics’ favor heading toward May and June. The depth behind them will be key, but like most elite teams, there aren’t a ton of resources to allocate to backups at a non-premium position. While Neemias Queta and Lamar Stevens have been intriguing in the preseason, Joe Mazzulla has shown an unwillingness in each of their first few games to move away from the woeful Luke Kornet, who has seemingly yet again undeservingly won a roster spot. My problem with the Celtics’ depth at the big position isn’t that they don’t have it, it’s that they need to get their priorities straight. Like Grant Williams last year, I think that Oshae Brissett also possesses potential as a stretch big despite being shorter than fellow wing, Jayson Tatum. The Celtics have a lot of options and picks to play with to fill these holes, but I think they’ll be able to figure it out with what they have in-house and fitting with the overarching theme of this offseason, it’ll likely involve moving off of a locker room favorite in Luke Kornet. 

Outside of the injury concern, there isn’t much performance concern with their best groups. Horford hasn’t shown any real signs of regression, despite what some idiots online might suggest, and Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday seemingly eliminate the concerns over a your-turn, my-turn offense that Brown and Tatum have a tendency to slip into in crunch time. Objectively, this is the best and most diverse group of top-end talent in basketball right now. For the Celtics, it’s just about the chips breaking right.

The Bench Depth

Everybody knows about the Celtics’ top-six and I’ve already lightly dipped my toes into their big-man depth, but what about the rest of the roster? It’s a collection of old faces, intriguing young journeymen, and even some veterans. The shining star of the Celtics’ depth is undoubtedly preseason standout, Payton Pritchard. He is likely to finally take the leap that Celtics fans and front office members have been waiting for the past three years and with that comes an expanded role in the offense. However, at least through murmurs in training camp and just a few preseason games, I’m more intrigued by his defense. While he’s always been hampered by his small size, the real problem was discipline and defensive IQ which are two things that have seemingly been fixed. He’s picking up guards in full-court coverage and calling out different schemes in the half-court. I think he’ll emerge as an unlikely defensive and vocal leader, something that’s probably needed for a brand-new bench unit. 

Outside of Pritchard, newcomers Oshae Brissett, Lamar Stevens, and Dalano Banton round out the group of interesting veterans. Each are premier defender, a part of the game that’s being stressed early in the year by coach Mazzulla. For Celtics fans, Brissett was probably the most recognizable name given the Celtics’ problems beating the Indiana Pacers last year and his frequent hustle and rebounding being a reason why. Culturally, I think it can be considered a similar acquisition to Marcus Morris in 2018. He’s just a dog. Lamar Stevens and Dalano Banton are both younger defensive guys who are a bit large for their respective positions and are coming from teams that have been interesting for the past few years. They probably won’t play much, but when they do, they could bring some production. Outside of these guys, returning bodies Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet will likely return to the Celtics’ bench. Hauser brings a nice plug-and-play 3&D wing who has always fit anywhere in the Celtics’ lineup. Kornet brings a nice and calming presence off the court and is probably not too bad on the aux cord (whenever he gets it).

The other remaining spots on the roster will probably go to rookie Jordan Walsh, Neemias Queta, and Svi Mykhailiuk. Each is intriguing in their own right and Queta and Svi might deserve minutes over Kornet and Hauser respectively right away. Walsh is a gem of a long-term project who could spend a chunk of time in Maine this year before slowly becoming a key contributor for years to come. These last few spots don’t really matter outside of depth, but unlike previous years, the Celtics have filled these final few spots with actual players instead of bodies to fill a seat or guards under 6’1.

The concern over depth is rightly being overblown considering the talent drop-off from the top-six to the bench, but like 2018, I think the concerns at the beginning of the year are more from a lack of knowledge than anything. It’ll be a competitive group not just fighting for the Celtics but for their own spots in one of the most valuable rotations in basketball.

The Tatum *Pop* Year

Much has been made about Jayson Tatum in NBA circles over the past few years. Whether it be his questionable performances towards the end of the playoffs or his constant and rapid improvement in his game, nobody has been able to make sense of his standing in the broad landscape of the NBA. However, given the new 65-game requirement for award consideration, I’ll make a bold claim right now that he’ll win MVP this year. Unlike his peer and teammate Jaylen Brown, there aren’t any advanced stats or eye test reactions that suggest he’s done anything but get better year over year since his rookie year. What’s the next step from 30 points per game, an All-NBA first-team appearance, and a top-four MVP finish? Well, it’s to win the damn award! If the Celtics remain a top team and Tatum leads the way with Embiid’s Sixers falling off, he’ll pretty much be guaranteed a top-three finish among recent year standards. Hell, if you take last year’s results and apply the games played requirement, he finishes third and Joel Embiid barely even qualifies. Assuming he’ll get even better and the Jokic fatigue among voters continues, Tatum will be the only feasible player on a winning team who could both be good enough and play enough games to win the award.

From a basketball and non-strategy standpoint, his rebounding and defense are even more all-world than last year and with an entire offseason, his health should be in good shape with his jumper due for a bounce-back year. I’m not saying he needs a 50-40-90 season like Kevin Durant, but a 45-35-85 shooting season with similar output numbers to last year would be enough to get it done. You never know what could happen, but following what felt like a missed opportunity with his injury in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year, I’d expect Tatum to come out angry this year. 

While I’m the most biased voice to make this take, with as much separation as I can as a Celtics fan, I truly believe it. Jayson Tatum will win MVP.

Championship Dreams

It’s no secret that this offseason has brought back the dream of an eighteenth banner hanging from the rafters in TD Garden. However, I wouldn’t shoe the Celtics in just yet. While I’ve gassed them up a lot here, there are still questions that linger about coaching, health, and the competition in the conference. Teams like Milwaukee, Cleveland, and I’d even say New York are no joke in the East. That disregards other formidable Western foes such as Denver, Phoenix, and Golden State as threats to a duck boat parade in mid-June 2024. A lot can happen in the next eight months and as a finance major who thinks in risk and return, both are posed for the Celtics this year. While the Celtics have the return of an extremely talented group of players, the risk of that upside is the variance from expected in the regular season. We don’t know how other teams will perform, who other teams will acquire, and what could happen to the Celtics on the court. That variance will sink or ship the Celtics’ championship hopes. Yet, it’s still worth the risk. Despite the potential losses, it’s still worth the risk for the excess return. However, that’s why we play games and watch sports. It’s all about the variation and how everything shakes out. For the Celtics’ sake, hopefully, it finally shakes their way.

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

Twitter - @TheSatBlues