New Year, More Basketball. -- The 2024 New Years NBA Update

Since I last posted, a lot has happened in the basketball world. The first in-season tournament began, the college basketball season started, and contenders started taking shape. We’re almost halfway into the NBA season, but many narratives have already begun to take shape. What’s even better is that I’m on winter break, which means that I finally have time to fully reflect on everything that’s going on across the NBA landscape. With that being said, here are a few of the narratives, observations, and other basketball nonsense that I’d like to go deeper on at the one-third of the way through point. 

So, who are the contenders… really?

The 2023-24 season has been a tale of two conferences so far as the East and West could not be shaking out any differently. Through 32-ish games, the Eastern Conference has produced results as expected. Boston sits in first and is what feels like a tier above every other Eastern Conference team. Right behind them sit Milwaukee and Philadephia, who have also looked very good in parts of this season and are seemingly waiting to swoop in if Boston ever manages to slip up. Past that, it’s been the expected mish-mash of mid-tier playoff teams (along with Miami) that have also seen the likes of the overachieving Magic and Pacers. On the note of Orlando and Indiana, both of them have seen inconsistent results in the past weeks. I won’t start waving red flags yet, but could this be a sign of a slowdown from two young surging teams? It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen teams like the Bulls, Hornets, and Hawks over the past few years get on a roll with a young core and then fizzle out. However, while these teams have been intriguing, the real story of the East has been Boston’s dominance. The only Eastern team that they haven’t beaten that they’ve played was a weird game against Charlotte, but they’ve taken out every playoff team in the East at some point this season. The Celtics feasibly have four All-Stars right now and while I’ll take a deeper dive into this team in the coming weeks, they are the clear-cut favorites not only in the East but in the league right now. While Milwaukee and Philly have had decent stretches, Philly’s “dominance” over the past few weeks has been overshadowed by a truly awful schedule and Embiid sitting against contenders. The Bucks, meanwhile, have been far too inconsistent and thin in their depth to make much of a dent against Boston. In the East, for the third straight year, it’s Boston’s to lose.

In the West, it has been the Jekyll to the East’s Mr. Hyde. Every seed in this conference is a genuine shock with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder holding down the top two spots. While Denver being in third is almost completely due to Jamal Murray’s absence, both of these teams are nothing to scoff at. From both the eye test and statistics, Minnesota’s success can be chalked up to defense, Anthony Edwards, and the resurgence of Rudy Gobert. The Wolves lead the league in defensive rating by a wide margin of 2.1 points, which might not seem like a lot, but makes up the difference between second and ninth. Rudy Gobert was the butt of many jokes in the past two years, but this season? This season Rudy Gobert has the best defensive rating of his career since his second to last year in Utah, has the second-best defensive win shares mark of his career, and has the second-best defensive rating of qualified players, all while averaging 2.1 blocks and 12.1 rebounds per game. Gobert has been so good that Minnesota has legitimately had to deal with Karl-Anthony Towns trade rumors and honestly, I would be taking calls. While the McDaniels-Edwards wing combo has been amazing, the guard play could still use some work, and a KAT for a point guard and wing framework of a trade could probably do them wonders, especially with Naz Reid’s ascendance as a backup big. OKC has been a little less consistent to my eye. While they are top ten in offensive rating, defensive rating, and pace, something still feels off about them. I think it’s the lack of a clear second star next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and others filling in each night as a secondary playmaker and scorer. With the swash of All-Star talent available right now (*cough* LaVine/DeRozan *cough*) and given Josh Giddey’s off-the-court issues, don’t be shocked if they’re compelled to make a move closer to the deadline.  According to PowerRankingsGuru, the Thunder have both played and have the 20th-best strength of schedule remaining, which has both given them a good foundation standings-wise and a difficult evaluation of how good they are. Oklahoma City is going to be a team that has to prove it in the playoffs when they’ve likely fallen out of the second seed. With young teams like this, it’s important to remember that windows are never certain and while they could repeat this performance in the coming months and years, you never know when it’s going to end or when it’s going to surge. They are hard to predict, but fun to watch. I say that a second-round exit is nothing to scoff at for them. Beyond the top three, it’s a mess of the Clippers, Mavs, Pelicans, Lakers, Rockets, and Suns. The shockers to me in this group are the bottom three and the last few that aren’t in this group. While I predicted the Lakers to be fairly low, with them winning the IST, it feels like they should be higher. This year feels like another year without a major move and a 7 or 8 seed, which still makes them dangerous. Like the Heat in the East, if you let them in the dance, it doesn’t matter what seed they are, all that matters is that you let them in. The Rockets are shocking for all of the right reasons, despite their poor record on the road. While this will hopefully even out, they have all of the pros and cons that head coach, Ime Udoka, had with the Celtics. They are near the top of the league in AST/TO ratio and net rating, including the 6th best defense, but are close to the bottom in pace. Considering how young their team is, this is somewhat concerning at this point of the season when they should be out and running, and is likely a contributor to their struggles away from Houston. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies and Warriors sit outside of the playoff picture. While the Grizzlies aren’t too surprising considering Ja Morant’s suspension, the Warriors’ season has been a well-documented disaster. While they’ve had their momentary bright spots, including a recent OT win against the Porzingis-less Celtics, in short, it’s been a shitshow. Draymond Green has been suspended, Klay Thompson fell off of a cliff, the bench has outplayed the starters, and Andrew Wiggins has gone missing. Outside of Stephen Curry, there isn’t much to write home about with the Warriors. It might seem early, but I’m pushing the panic button on them. They definitely shouldn’t trade Stephen Curry, as some have idiotically suggested, but retooling everyone around him is much needed. I would keep an eye on Karl-Anthony Towns as an early prediction, as the polar opposite starts for both Golden State and Minnesota could finally make a long-rumored and wished move happen. Fantasy trades aside, the Western Conference will likely shake out in Denver’s favor again, in my opinion, but I honestly don’t hold much confidence in that pick. 

With all of that off of my chest, I’m going to attempt to tier every team in the NBA and update the tiers as such with each upcoming NBA piece. 

Tier I: Frontrunners

1A. Boston Celtics (26-6, 1st E, 1st NBA)

1B. Denver Nuggets (24-11, 3rd W, 6th NBA)

Tier II: Contenders

3. Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, 2nd E, 3rd NBA)

4. Minnesota Timberwolves (24-8, 1st W, 2nd NBA)

5. Philadelphia 76ers (22-10, 3rd E)

Tier III: Get In and They’ll Win

6. Los Angeles Lakers (17-17, 10th W)

7. Miami Heat (19-14, 5th E)

8. Los Angeles Clippers (20-12, 4th W)

9. Phoenix Suns (18-15, 8th W)

Tier IV: A Move or Injury Away

10. Oklahoma City Thunder (22-9, 2nd W)

11. Orlando Magic (19-13, 4th E)

12. New York Knicks (18-15, 5th E)

13. Dallas Mavericks (19-15, 7th W)

14. Sacramento Kings (19-12, 5th W)

15. Indiana Pacers (18-14, 6th E)

Tier V: Low-Level Playoff Teams

16. New Orleans Pelicans (19-14, 6th W)

17. Cleveland Cavaliers (18-15, 8th E)

18. Houston Rockets (16-15, 9th W)

19. Memphis Grizzlies (10-22, 13th W)

20. Golden State Warriors (15-17, 11th W)

21. Brooklyn Nets (15-18, 9th E)

Tier VI: Definitely Going to Make a Trade for the Wrong Reasons

22. Atlanta Hawks (13-19, 11th E)

23. Chicago Bulls (15-19, 10th E)

24. Utah Jazz (15-19, 12th W)

25. Toronto Raptors (13-20, 12th E)

Tier VII: Deep in the Tank Trenches

26. Portland Trail Blazers (9-23, 14th W)

27. San Antonio Spurs (5-27, Worst W)

28. Charlotte Hornets (7-24, 13th E)

29. Washington Wizards (6-26, 14th E)

Tier VIII: The Detroit Pistons

30. Detroit Pistons (3-30!!!, Worst E)

Wait, so who is MVP… really?

To preface everything that I am about to say, I’d like to say that I honestly don’t know who the MVP frontrunner is, nor will I make a pick for one here. All I’m about to do is go through the positives and downsides of each player’s candidacy. I’ll be using ESPN’s straw poll, shown below, to go through a few candidates and why they’re intriguing. However, first, I need to throw out a few guys for different reasons. First, Giannis. Look, he’ll probably finish top five in voting, but let’s all be frank, the Bucks won’t finish first and at that, he probably won’t play 65 games to get it. He’s only hit that mark once in the last five years and despite someone else’s (Embiid) notable inclusion on this list, I just want to throw him out. I’m also going to toss Luka because the Mavs won’t have the record or defensive prowess to consider him in the long run and like Giannis, he’s either not hitting or barely hitting 65 games over the past few years, so it’s best just to toss him.

For the sake of the exercise, we’re going to look at Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, plus I’ll make my slightly biased look into the candidacy of Jayson Tatum. 

*Indicates league leader

Candidate One: Joel Embiid

25 GP (out of 32 possible games)

35.0 PPG*

11.7 REB

6.0 AST

3.2 STOCKS (steals+blocks)

3.8 Turnovers per game

54/35/89.3 splits

65.1 TS%

22-10 Team Record (3rd E, 5th NBA)

Positives:

At face value, these are strong numbers, and ignoring his track record of missing a ton of games at some point in every season, he looks like he could very well repeat his MVP candidacy. He leads a top-three seed in scoring, is extremely marketable, and can seemingly play both sides of the ball. His three-point shot has seen little fall off from last year and without James Harden, he’s led the second-best offensive and second-best defensive team, which is good for the best net rating in the league. Not only that, he’s first in PIE, and he’s second in VORP, box plus-minus, and win shares. In all measures, Embiid is the best player in the league for the second straight year, right?

Negatives:

While the positives might paint a pretty beautiful picture, Embiid’s negatives are mostly narrative-focused, which is notoriously bad for an MVP campaign. First, a lot has been made of his strength of schedule this season, as the Sixers recently rose to the top of a lot of advanced rankings because of a seven-game stretch where they played the Wizards twice, the Pistons twice, the Hawks, Hornets, and Bulls. All of these teams are near the bottom of the standings and are notable because it followed a stretch of games and three losses where Embiid chose to sit against Minnesota, New Orleans, and most notably, Boston. While a 50-point bomb against Minnesota this past week somewhat remedies that, the Boston narrative has continued to haunt Embiid. He has still yet to play a truly dominant game against Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and mainly Al Horford in his career. After a home loss to Boston where Embiid put up just 20 points and was outdueled by Jayson Tatum, he took the Boston game off for what was seemingly rest and then proceeded to go on a dominant stretch against bad teams. While the Boston hump wasn’t a problem in voting last year, this year it could prove problematic. It’s also worth noting that his one game against the second-place Bucks was also not out of this world. He put up 24 points in a loss where he was outdueled by both Giannis and Damian Lillard while being shut down by Brook Lopez. While he has taken out the West leaders, there’s certainly a strong narrative backed up by years of history that he can’t beat the powers in front of him in the East. There’s also the aesthetic part of the game that voters, many of whom live on Twitter, love to look at. In past years, Nikola Jokic and Giannis among others have had highlight plays that were just fun to watch. Embiid plays the game as mostly a foul-baiter, to put it bluntly. He’s putting up career numbers in FTA and leads the league in free throws attempted. As many highlight clips as there are, there are clips of him flailing around trying to get calls. Only people who are fans of the Sixers enjoy how he plays, which really can’t be said about any recent MVP candidate. Everybody loves Jokic, Giannis got Shaq to call him Superman, and even James Harden, as foul-baiting as he is, played amazing basketball in Houston. Embiid, even more than last year, doesn’t look the part of MVP. Lastly, before we move onto him, it’s worth mentioning who he’s second place to in a lot of these advanced stats. Once again, the Jokic demon still stands in the way of an Embiid MVP. While Nikola Jokic seemingly traded out a lot of his statistical dominance for a championship ring, he’s still a threat to Embiid because he is the best big in the league. While that was up for debate last year, Jokic’s June dominance ended the conversation. Following last year, no matter the numbers that Embiid puts up, it’s hard to give MVP to the second-best center in the league. 

Candidate Two: Nikola Jokic

34 GP (out of 35 possible games)

25.7 PPG

12.3 REB

9.1 AST

2.0 STOCKS (steals+blocks)

2.7 Turnovers per game

55.9/33.3/81.8 splits

63.2 TS%

24-11 Team Record (3rd W, 6th NBA)

Positives:

The nerds love Jokic, don’t we? He’s the league leader in offensive box plus-minus, defensive box plus-minus, overall box plus-minus, VORP, win shares, offensive win shares, defensive rebounds, and total rebounds. This is all while being third in assists per game AS A CENTER, second in PER, and second in PIE. He’s also done all of this largely without his second-best player, Jamal Murray, who has only played 15 games. It’s not as statistically low as last season and it’s not quite a clone of his last MVP season, but it’s seemingly close to the middle ground of the two. If the Nuggets can get back up to first or pull off some marquee wins, Jokic could immediately become the front-runner. While other candidates seemingly have to put up career watermarks to contend for MVP, Jokic has a certain aura to his game where he can put up his standard amazing numbers be towards the top of the conversation. Put simply, he’s still the best player in the world and extremely multi-dimensional. 

Negatives:

Unlike other candidates, there just isn’t much to say about Jokic’s game. That can be both a good and a bad thing, but without ridiculous scoring numbers, it’s probably for the worse that he has a quiet candidacy. Along with the lackluster “hype” surrounding his candidacy, the Nuggets are behind the Thunder and Timberwolves in the standings. I’m not saying that this necessarily matters, but it’s not necessarily a good thing either. These aren’t bad teams, but they aren’t championship front-runners like the Nuggets. They’ll have to climb up the standings to get Jokic into consideration. His shooting numbers are also down, which might not matter in the long run, but as his FGA is on pace to hit a career-high, it’s worth looking at the impact on those advanced stats that we’ve become so accustomed to Jokic leading easily. The voter fatigue is also still there. Jokic is a 2-time MVP in a small market without much personality. Will voters go for the advanced stats argument AGAIN? I don’t know. He’s the most effective, yet most boring candidate out there and that’s his main problem. Currently, it feels like other candidates would have to not qualify or fall out of contention to give it to him. For the best player in the world, his candidacy lacks aggression, which is his biggest problem.

Candidate Three: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

30 GP (out of 31 possible games)

31.2 PPG

5.7 REB

6.3 AST

3.4 STOCKS (steals*+blocks, he leads the league in steals (2.6))

2.0 Turnovers per game

54.6/31.7/91.6 splits

64.3 TS%

22-9 Team Record (2nd W, 5th NBA)

Positives:

Shai is new to all of this. While last year felt like a fever dream where the most annoying corners of the internet were campaigning for him, this year, with a successful team alongside his tantalizing numbers, he’s legit. Oklahoma City has been overachieving but is second in the West because of everything that he has been able to do. SGA is second in defensive box plus-minus and third in both overall box plus-minus and VORP. He’s the only guard in the top five for defensive win shares, one of just six players averaging 30 points per game, and the only one on a top-two team in their conference. He’s the best young point guard in the league and probably second overall at his position, only to Stephen Curry, who isn’t in contention for the award. If Shai can up his numbers even further and keep Oklahoma City ahead of Denver in the West, he could very well gain enough momentum in the public eye to win the award. He’s the breakout candidate in a group of established guys.

Negatives:

Seemingly, the fact that he isn’t really the best at anything important sticks out here. He’s one of a few among the elite but one of the few doesn’t really win the award. He’s not on a top-tier title contender, nor is he the best at his position. He also plays in a small market, which, annoying, is still an important factor in MVP contention. Most people don’t take Oklahoma City seriously in title contention and that carries into his MVP case. Most of his negatives are being top five to top ten instead of top two or three. To me, he’s like Jayson Tatum over the past two years. He has a case for the award, but will probably finish in third or fourth behind the real contenders. He’s going to fall short this year, but this season could serve as the springboard to give him the reputation going forward to win it.

Candidate Four: Jayson Tatum

30 GP (out of 32 possible games)

26.9 PPG

8.4 REB

4.4 AST

1.5 STOCKS (steals*+blocks, he leads the league in steals (2.6))

2.9 Turnovers per game

47.4/34.6/80.6 splits

59.8 TS%

26-6 Team Record (1st E, 1st NBA)

Positives:

Look, I know that his inclusion comes off as extremely biased, but Jayson Tatum, once again, has a legitimate case for MVP. Despite the numbers dip from last year, Tatum fits a much more narratively-aligned role this season as the leader of a superteam. Similar to Stephen Curry and LeBron James before him, Tatum now must make a team with five all-stars (Yes, Derrick White) work and so far he’s done that brilliantly. Put simply, if I told you that the best player on the team who’s been by far the best is averaging an efficient 27/8/4 with a block, steal, and elite defense who plays every single night wasn’t in MVP consideration, wouldn’t that seem a little crazy? Tatum’s case is a testament to consistency and greatness at a high level. He doesn’t have the flashy name like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic and isn’t the NBA’s favorite young starboy like Shai or Tyrese Hailburton. However, unless he’s playing the Nuggets or Bucks every night (and even some nights against the Bucks he has outplayed Giannis; see Game 6 2022 ECSF), he’s always going to be the best player on the floor. Tatum’s case is for the actual basketball watchers and not the Twitter statheads. It’s for people who live outside of stan culture and even some fan culture and look at the landscape of the league as a whole. The best player on the best team is Jayson Tatum. The leader of the juggernaut that every opposing fan fears deep down is Jayson Tatum. His main criticism is that he “hasn’t shown up” but this year, he is. You cannot ignore that Tatum has brought another level of facilitation, defense, and playmaking to his game. His unselfishness cannot be measured with counting stats and simply by making this work in Boston, he should be in consideration. Tatum’s candidacy is not one of stats, even though his are outstanding, but one of principle. Should we reward players for leading and winning, or for statpadding? Tatum’s finish in this race will undoubtedly answer that question this season.

Negatives:

Put simply, he doesn’t have the numbers. Tatum is barely cracking the top ten in any stat and isn’t nearly as efficient as guys like Jokic and Shai. Yeah, he’s the best player on the best team, but the award isn’t really about that. Most valuable player? Take him off the Celtics and they’re pretty damn good. What I just did is throw out all of the quick talking points that devalue his candidacy. Put simply, it’s too easy to strike out his pretty simple narrative by pointing out everything that he isn’t doing and ignoring that he could be doing those things to hurt his team. However, Tatum’s selflessness will inevitably kill his MVP case. Those naysayers are right about his numbers and no matter how many Player of the Month honors he wins (he has the only one this year for the East), people will look at him as either a stat sheet or the beneficiary of others. They will look past the struggles of growth that have manifested in the past and ignore the fruits of his labor in team success because it isn’t for Tatum’s personal gain. In a narrative game, it seems like it’s a double-edged sword for Tatum. The most educated basketball minds will praise him and the more pedestrian will point out his shortcomings. In a world of polarity, too few fall in the middle or towards the higher-mind end to sway Tatum’s case. He just doesn’t have enough flash.

After all of this, what questions are yet to be answered… really?

I decided to include this section as my annual random list of things that I’m genuinely curious to see play out in the next few months. It’s a long season and truthfully, I started writing this the day before Christmas Eve and resumed a day after New Year’s and a whole lot already changed. I spent more time revising everything than finishing the MVP section. So, I feel that adding a mailbag type of section is helpful in both idea generation and highlighting things that I don’t think are getting enough attention.

1. What’s going to happen with the Phoenix Suns?

To say that this season for Phoenix has been disappointing would be an understatement. While Durant and Booker have been pretty productive, Booker has been inconsistent and their new acquisition, Bradley Beal, has barely played. They sit in eight and while they’re riding a four-game winning streak, the predicted depth concerns are more of a concern than people thought and they look far away from a contender. They don’t have much flexibility to make moves and I’ve started to wonder that if after this season they look at moving Kevin Durant. Let’s be honest and admit that KD is getting older. The numbers have been good this year, but actually watching him it’s clear that he’s lost a step. Looking at their problems from a GM’s perspective it might be the only way out that doesn’t involve shedding Booker. Seeing their big three together against good teams will be paramount, but they are all never healthy. Durant still has value and a moveable contract only because of his production. If he were to become immovable, then it gets really dicey with degrading Durant and Beal making up almost half of your cap with Booker still eating up a decent chunk of his own. I think that people are really quiet about the fact that the Suns look closer to blowing it all up than actually contending. These last few months of the season will be huge for the future of the Suns and I think we’re headed to a third straight year of Kevin Durant sweepstakes.

2. Is Luka the problem?

I don’t think that Luka Doncic can ever be an MVP candidate. This isn’t because of his talent or numbers, but because he might not be able to win games anymore. While a lot of the Mavericks’ struggles are because of poor ownership and front-office decisions (Kyrie and Grant Williams commitments in the same offseason?), it’s pretty hard to ignore the fact that Luka Doncic’s last two second options have gotten much better since leaving him, notably Jalen Brunson, who has arguably been more impactful than him this season. The other, Kristaps Porzingis, is coming off of a career year and could be having another one in Boston for the championship favorites. Kyrie Irving, while injured, hasn’t been amazing either and is having his worst scoring season in eight years. His efficiency has also dropped and while that isn’t fully Doncic’s fault, it goes to show the level of dominance over the ball that he commands. He is second in usage only to Joel Embiid this season but without his efficiency. Luka can hoop, but his playstyle isn’t very conducive to other creators thriving. Without a second big name on the roster, in this NBA, you can’t win. Without wins there are no awards and without those, legacy comes into play. I think that a lot of people focus on his positives and not the fact that the Mavs have had some dreadful losses this year and are barely clinging to a playoff spot despite a flurry of perceived helpful offseason moves. If Luka can’t make more magic this year, with this loaded roster, it might be time to question him instead of everybody else.

3. Could a team set the losses record this year?

This one is more of a personal question for me, but I’ve been genuinely amazed at how bad the Pistons, Spurs, and Wizards are. The obvious one to set the losses record at 76 would be the Pistons, who just had their NBA-record 28-game losing streak broken, only to lose by almost thirty in their next game. However, I’m just as intrigued by the Spurs and Wizards, two teams who are probably going to be selling at the deadline, who only have two and three more wins than the Pistons respectively. The Spurs, although with Wemby, don’t have a point guard and seem to be down at least ten at any point in every game. The Wizards are the real dark horse, though, as their chaos either results in Kuzma and Poole letting them compete with contenders or shooting them out of games versus the Hornets. Whichever team finishes with the worst record will be fascinating, but I think we might have a new race to the worst record similar to the Browns’ race to 0-16. Yet the funniest part is the purpose of tanking this hard is that there are no generational or even great prospects in this draft. The 2024 NBA Draft is projected to be one of the worst in years and some of the worst teams of all time might be picking at the top. Don’t you just love basketball?

4. What is happening with the Bulls? AND Is Zach LaVine the best Ewing Theory candidate right now?

The Bulls are the weirdest team in the NBA this season. They have over $60 million committed to two players who currently aren’t playing and while it might sound like this week’s NBA episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, LaVine’s case for Ewing theory is pretty strong. Since his injury in November, the Bulls are 10-6 in games without him and went from losing by almost 40 to the Celtics in an IST game where they were basically fully healthy (Lonzo Ball is out for the season) and 5-14 to being 15-19 and currently holding a play-in spot over Atlanta and Toronto, who were both play-in teams last year and didn’t get much worse in the offseason. Coby White has been averaging 22 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 47.3/43.1/83.8 splits since November 20th in the 20 games since LaVine’s injury. The Bulls are winning most of those games and with LaVine almost certainly gone any day now, the former All-Star has seemingly found himself without a market even if his contract wasn’t ridiculous. LaVine won’t be out of a job, as his deal lasts until 2027, but he’s kind of reminding me of James Harden for the past few years in Philly. The Sixers got better by trading him for pennies, and I can’t help but think that White could be their version of Tyrese Maxey to a lesser degree. The Bulls could see a shake-up at both the deadline and in the offseason and they are as volatile as could be right now. Immediate decisions will affect the franchise for years to come and those are the best situations to watch. It’s like a burning car crash on the highway and I can’t help but look. 

5. When can we call the Celtics the definitive favorites to win it all?

To be clear, I already have. However, the national sentiment is different. They’ll point to teams like Denver, Minnesota, and even Milwaukee and somehow Philadelphia (lol) as real threats to win it all. While the Celtics’ dominance has been obvious, it’s legitimate and reasonable doubts about coaching and clutch-time play that worry analysts and fans everywhere when it comes to the Celtics. Not to mention how many threes the Celtics tend to recklessly shoot, there are a lot more questions about the Celtics than any other contender as it pertains to a specific playstyle. However, they can kill you from any angle, are both top-heavy and sneaky deep, and have two of the best wings in the league leading the charge. To put a simple answer to a complicated question, it’ll be when they play the Nuggets. None of the other teams that I listed have undisputable arguments, but the Celtics’ ability to effectively manage Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray’s combination is a legitimate doubt. Until they do it, they can be questioned. If they do dethrone the defending champs, though, stay off of Twitter until April. Just some advice. 

In the end, can we make anything of this season… really?

In short, yes and no. I don’t want to make a ton of definitive statements or even predictions in the meat of this piece, but we can observe what has happened so far and make an educated guess as to what needs to happen to reach certain outcomes. The Celtics are dominant, but we knew that would happen. Embiid and Jokic are MVP frontrunners, but we knew that would happen. What I encourage anyone reading this to do is look at the variance for predictors. The Timberwolves and Thunder are good so far. Why? In this answer, we find real predictors. The Timberwolves have an elite defense and the Thunder, while having a weak schedule, have found a way to win around Shai. Can these things parlay into success? I don’t know. We’ve seen teams struggle and others thrive, but above all else, we’ve seen a ton of variance from the expected and those have historically been the best NBA seasons. The only thing I’ll say before making my biased predictions and prophecies is that we are in for a fantastic finish to the second half of the season and I cannot wait. Long live the NBA!

Predictions!

Standings

East:

1. Boston Celtics

2. Philadelphia 76ers

3. Milwaukee Bucks

4. New York Knicks

5. Miami Heat

6. Orlando Magic

7. Indiana Pacers

8. Cleveland Cavaliers

9. Brooklyn Nets

10. Toronto Raptors

11. Chicago Bulls

12. Atlanta Hawks

13. Charlotte Hornets

14. Washington Wizards

15. Detroit Pistons

West:

1. Denver Nuggets

2. Minnesota Timberwolves

3. LA Clippers

4. OKC Thunder

5. Sacramento Kings

6. Dallas Mavericks

7. Phoenix Suns

8. Houston Rockets

9. New Orleans Pelicans

10. LA Lakers

11. Memphis Grizzlies

12. GS Warriors

13. Utah Jazz

14. Portland Trail Blazers

15. San Antonio Spurs

Awards

MVP: Nikola Jokic (DEN)

Runners Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), Jayson Tatum (BOS)*

ROTY: Victor Wembanyama (SAS)

Runners Up: Chet Holmgren (OKC), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA)

DPOY: Rudy Gobert (MIN)

Runners Up: Victor Wembanyama (SAS), Derrick White (BOS)

6MOTY: Malik Monk (SAC)

Runners Up: Chris Paul (GSW), Immanuel Quickley (TOR)

MIP: Alperen Sengun (HOU)

Runners Up: Tyrese Maxey (PHI), Tyrese Haliburton (IND)

COTY: Chris Finch (MIN)

Runners Up: Mark Daigneault (OKC), Joe Mazzulla (BOS)

*Joel Embiid (PHI) won’t play 65 games and won’t meet the MVP requirements, however, I would still put him behind Jokic in the end

Trade Candidates

Zach LaVine (CHI) → New Orleans Pelicans

Malcolm Brogdon (POR) → LA Lakers

DeMar DeRozan (CHI) → Stays

Bojan Bogdanovic (DET) → Stays

Alex Caruso (CHI) → Phoenix Suns

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) → Stays, but GSW links start

Pascal Siakam (TOR) → Brooklyn Nets or OKC Thunder

Lauri Markkanen → Golden State Warriors or OKC Thunder

Playoff Finalists and Champion

WCF: Denver vs Minnesota → Denver in 6

ECF: Boston vs Milwaukee → Boston in 5

Finals: Denver vs Boston → Boston in 7

Champion: Boston Celtics

Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

Twitter: @TheSatBlues, @ZTheBest33