When Spring Swings into Bloom, the Basketball Heats Up: 2023-24 NBA Season Recap and Play-In Preview

 

        Hello, blog. It’s been a while. While wrapping up my senior year of college, I have been bogged down more than I have in the past few years and haven’t really had time to endlessly pour my basketball thoughts onto a page. Yet, we persevere and in anticipation (my anticipation) of my full playoff preview coming later this week following the play-in tournament, I’m going to get my recap of the 2023 - 2024 NBA Season out to all of you. I’ll break down some of my favorite things from this season, what predictions I nailed and failed, and a small taste of what I think is to come in the postseason. With the direction plotted and the play-in brackets set, let’s run through it all.

The Year of Dominance: Nikola Jokic and the Boston Celtics

This season was all about dominant teams and dominant players. As the Knicks clinched the two-seed in the East in an epic win in overtime over the Bulls yesterday, Payton Pritchard was tossing dimes to Neemias Queta as the Celtics blew out the Wizards in Mike Gorman’s final game at the Garden. It’s a very obvious takeaway from this year, but the Celtics lapped the field in a way that we haven’t seen since the dynastic Golden State Warriors. Those Warriors led the field by the most games they ever did in 2014-15 when they finished the season eleven games ahead of the second-place Houston Rockets. The Celtics finished fourteen games ahead of the Knicks in the East and seven games clear of the field in the NBA. Not only did their record show it, but their net rating and point differential, which ended up being third and fifth all-time, confirm what all of us saw with our own eyes from these Boston Celtics. For most people, at no point during the season was there a better team in the league than the Celtics. Joe Mazzulla won’t be Coach of the Year and Jayson Tatum won’t be MVP, but there’s no team with more expectations than the Boston Celtics.

If there were to be one team, though, it’d be the defending champion Nuggets. Despite their 13-10 record without Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic still makes them the scariest team in the sport. Their position in the eyes of basketball media is made especially interesting because of their two wins over the record-setting Celtics, both of which came as a result of two missed open shots from Jayson Tatum. So, if they beat the Celtics twice and won the championship last year, why shouldn’t they win the championship again? That’s a fair assessment and not one that I necessarily disagree with. However, I don’t want to focus on their championship aspirations, but on how dominant their best player and my favorite for MVP, Nikola Jokic, has been all year. Jokic is at the point in his career where an average year for him is the best season of any player in the league for that given season. His 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists are basically a carbon copy of his stats last year when he lost the MVP to Joel Embiid, but without Embiid eligible, it basically just leaves Jokic. When you boil it down, it’s actually been a pretty boring MVP race because of Jokic. In the past few years of Embiid and Jokic sparring it out for the award and the old Westbrook/Harden and Giannis/Harden duels, the pathetic attempts by Luka Doncic and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander to dethrone Jokic are just boring. Doncic stat padded on an average team that moved earth at the trade deadline to make them slightly better and SGA somehow didn’t do enough to move Jokic out of the favorite on an overachieving OKC team, which is actually very impressive for him. Despite these attempts, the aura-less Jokic will coast to another MVP, very much under the radar, while his team is loudly making themselves the biggest threat to the favorite Celtics. As a Celtics fan, I hate him, but as someone who loves basketball, he’s perfect for the game today. 

The Year of Surprises: The Thunder, Wolves, and… Knicks??

While this year was notably about the Thunder, Timberwolves, Pacers, and Magic, I think that the New York Knicks were actually the most impressive “turnaround” in the NBA. The Knicks are the two-seed in the East. That statement in itself, given the past ten years of this franchise, is extremely impressive. The Knicks were a dumpster fire for years and now, even without one of their two best players, they’re contenders to make the Eastern Conference Finals. As someone who has lived a lot of these basketball seasons for years on end for my whole life, it felt like penciling in the Knicks to miss the playoffs was tradition. However, last year, almost suddenly, everything changed. While they flamed out then, now feels different. While they probably won’t make the finals and are no guarantee to get to the third round, the Knicks are a fixture of the East again and that’s a good thing. With my Knicks appreciation out of the way, this season was more about the Thunder and Timberwolves when discussing surprises. Heading into this season, the Oklahoma City Thunder had been a lottery team since 2021. Coming out of it, they’re the number-one seed in the Western Conference. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander will finish top three in MVP, Chet Holmgren will finish second in Rookie of the Year, and Mike Daignault will win Coach of the Year. If not for the Celtics and Nuggets, the Thunder might be the team of the season. They’ve gotten sneaky depth with Cason Wallace, Gordon Hayward, and Josh Giddey while Jalen Williams has become a reliable second option. Their only real hole is at center, and it is a notable one, but the Thunder’s complete turnaround is still insane. They could go out round one or make the Finals, but no matter what happens in the playoffs, they’re still positioned to get even better over the summer. 

On the other side of these Western Conference surprises are the Timberwolves, who had the star power and had the roster, but had a lot of question marks regarding whether or not they could show up for an entire season. However, a league-best 109 defensive rating was enough, even with an injury to Karl-Anthony Towns, to snag the third seed in the Western Conference. The story of the team, though, is Anthony Edwards. Anthony Edwards has become the guy that nobody wants to be against in the last five minutes of the game. It really feels like any time that it’s a close game Edwards will just take the ball and kill whoever is in front of him. He’s like the new version of the Warriors’ Kevin Durant, where it felt like it didn’t matter what happened in the first 40 minutes of a game because KD would just take over for the last eight. Edwards is the same way. Edwards is surrounded by talent at every position, with Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid flanking the Minnesota star. Like every Western top-seed outside of Denver, we’ll need to see what they can do in the playoffs, but given what we’ve seen in the regular season, they have a lot to be excited about. 

The Year of Uncertainty: My Predictions and a Weird Playoff Picture

In October 2023, I made a series of predictions about this season right before the season began. I was right about many and wrong about a few. I was right about the Celtics, Nuggets, and Bucks and nailed it on the head that those would be contending teams. I nailed the second “unicorn” movement and how this year was largely about Chet versus Wemby for the future of the league. I was also somewhat correct about Philadelphia and Miami falling apart, but missed the mark on throwing New York into that mix (maybe should’ve thrown in Brooklyn). I was also too high on Cade and too low on the Thunder. However, I’ll take my victory lap in saying at the beginning of the year that there would be a boatload of question marks all around the league and that’s been the only certainty to an uncertain season. From those question marks comes a playoff picture that looks awfully unlike one we’ve ever seen before. The play-in features teams that could still be contenders, and the guaranteed matchups could feasibly produce none of our Conference finalists. Are the Cavs and Magic really anything? Can the Pacers actually knock off the Bucks? The Clippers, Mavs, and Suns are so hot and cold while Minnesota doesn’t have the experience. Whatever happens, there are very few teams that I trust going into the playoffs. So, if the guaranteed matchups are too uncertain, let’s take a look at who the top four teams might have trouble with and preview the Play-In Tournament.

The Play-In Preview

(7) Philadelphia 76ers v. (8) Miami Heat

My Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

This is the weirdest play-in game might also be the best. Both of these teams have superstars, both of these teams should be contenders, and both of them could feasibly make a run if they win this game and avoid Boston. They have to play each other first, though, and it’ll be a bloodbath. Both of these teams had a season plagued by injury, but both should be fully healthy come Wednesday. So, Embiid vs Bam, Maxey vs Jimmy, and Herro vs the rest (I refuse to individually acknowledge “Tobias Harris”). Who will come out on top? I’m taking Philly for three reasons. First, the game is in Philadelphia. That might not seem that big, but it’s actually huge because of Joel Embiid’s reliance on foul calls and his ability to sway a home crowd for his team’s momentum. The refs shouldn’t be a factor, but Embiid is going to get every call in this game and take Bam out of it early. The second reason is how much pressure Embiid takes off of Tyrese Maxey and allows him to be the best version of himself. A quiet story of the tail end of the season is how once Embiid got back, he and Maxey figured out how to play off of each other much better. While they’re still working on the kinks of it, for one home game, I trust Philly’s stars to carry them over the top with the motivation that they don’t have to play Boston. The third reason is that I think Playoff Jimmy Butler is going to take a bit to get going. The Heat have quietly struggled over the last 10 games and Jimmy has notably struggled over the end stretch of the season. Could he flip a switch? Yes, and we’ve seen that before. However, this might be a new version of Jimmy and age could finally be catching him. Herro is also fresh off of an injury and Bam doesn’t have much offense, especially against Embiid. Could Jaime Jaquez and Duncan Robinson help out? Maybe, but not enough to win. The Heat are too hobbled and not deep enough. The Sixers are a contender who injured themselves into this game. I’ll take the Sixers. 

(9) Chicago Bulls v. (10) Atlanta Hawks

My Prediction: Chicago Bulls

On paper, the Hawks should probably win this game, but I really don’t like their chances because of their injuries and the way they play. The Hawks tend to struggle with pace and shooting consistency. With Jalen Johnson and Trae Young coming off of injuries combined with the game being in Chicago and the Bulls winning the season series, I’ll take the Bulls. The Hawks also don’t have any depth outside of Bogdanovic. The Bulls are coming off of a close loss to the Knicks in a game that the Knicks, the two-seed, really needed to win. The Bulls also have kind of a mini big-three, with Coby White, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan. None of those guys are elite players, but they’ll all show up in a big game, which is something that I can’t say about anybody on the Atlanta Hawks roster. In a one-game elimination, especially in Chicago, I think it’s pretty easy to pick Chicago here. Prove me wrong, Atlanta, I dare you.

(7) New Orleans Pelicans v. (8) Los Angeles Lakers

My Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

This game just played out as the final game of the season and I feel like it’s going to be the same result. The Lakers went into New Orleans and whooped these Pelicans all around the court yesterday and I think the same thing will happen this week. The Lakers can get everywhere against the Pelicans and LeBron can do whatever he wants against a shaky Pelicans defense that was supposed to be pretty good. Along with Anthony Davis’ ability to dominate the Pelicans’ frontcourt and the Lakers’ guard depth, I like LA in this game. Zion’s size is ultimately nullified by a physical Lakers’ defense and CJ McCollum can’t carry the entire Pelicans offense. Outside of any of the traits of an actual game, it’s LeBron James against a non-contender in a one-off game, so I’ll take one of the best players ever to guarantee his spot in the big dance.

(9) Sacramento Kings v. (10) Golden State Warriors

My Prediction: Golden State Warriors

I’ve actually seen the Kings twice and the Warriors once in person this season and I can confidently say that Golden State should win this game. In a way, everything has broken right for Golden State, as with wins against the Kings and Pelicans, teams that they dominate, they won’t have to play Denver or Minnesota, but get to play Oklahoma City, who is really the only top seed that they can run up and down with. The Kings are far too inconsistent and without Malik Monk they just don’t have depth. Sabonis really struggled against the Warriors in the playoffs last year and with even less depth I don’t have hope for him and Fox having much help. I trust that Curry will go off and if he manages to get any help from his inconsistent supporting cast, they should coast. I’m hoping for a close game and don’t really have a horse in this race, but it feels like these games are made for veterans and nobody has more veterans than the Warriors. 

Award and Other Play-In Predictions

In the finale of this piece, like most of my end-of-season wraps, I’ll make my full predictions for awards and honorable teams, but given that the play-in has become a bit of a tradition, I’ll also quickly provide all four teams that I think will move on from the play-in, those being the:

• Los Angeles Lakers

• Golden State Warriors

• Philadelphia 76ers

• Miami Heat

With those out of the way, here are all of my award winners, given without explanation or context.

MVP: Nikola Jokic

Second: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Third: Luka Doncic

Fourth: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Fifth: Jayson Tatum

ROTY: Victor Wembanyama

Second: Chet Holmgren

Third: Brandon Miller

Fourth: Cason Wallace

Fifth: Dereck Lively II

6MAN: Malik Monk

Second: Naz Reid

Third: Bobby Portis

MIP: Tyrese Maxey

Second: Coby White

Third: Tyrese Haliburton

Fourth: Devin Vassell

COTY: Mike Daignault

Second: Joe Mazzulla

Third: Chris Finch

All-NBA First Team:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

• Luka Doncic

• Jayson Tatum

• Giannis Antetokounmpo

• Nikola Jokic

All-NBA Second Team:

• Jalen Brunson

• Anthony Edwards

• Kevin Durant

• Kawhi Leonard

• Anthony Davis

All-NBA Third Team:

• Tyrese Haliburton

• Stephen Curry

• Jaylen Brown

• LeBron James

• Rudy Gobert

All-Rookie First Team:

• Cason Wallace

• Brandon Miller

• Chet Holmgren

• Victor Wembanyama

• Dereck Lively II
  
  

All-Rookie Second Team: 

• Amen Thompson

• Ausar Thompson

• Keyonte George

• Brandin Podziemski 

• Jaime Jaquez Jr.

All-Defensive First Team:

• Derrick White

• Jalen Suggs

• Victor Wembanyama

• Anthony Davis

• Rudy Gobert

All-Defensive Second Team:

• Alex Caruso

• Herb Jones

• Jaden McDaniels

• Bam Adebayo

• Isaiah Hartenstein

I hope you all 100% fully agree with my picks. I already know that everybody reading this does, so I thank you all for that. See you later this week for the full playoff preview!

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

Twitter - @TheSatBlues