I have no idea what is going on, but I am sure enjoying it. - 2024/25 NBA Playoffs First Round Round-Up/Second Round Preview

What a first round! I think we all knew it would be a really good playoffs, but the amount of entertaining and shocking moments through the first two weeks has been more than most of the last decade of first rounds. We had game winners, a crazy buzzer-beater, and multiple game sevens (including one that hasn’t even been played at of the time of writing this). As the playoffs move, narratives begin to form, and bold takes can become fact quicker than the games are being played. With that being said, let’s look back while also looking forward at the first and second rounds of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

First Round Series Wrap-Ups

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) over the Miami Heat (8)

My Pick: Cavs in 5

Actual Result: Cavs in 4

Is there anything to really say here? The Heat were, in actuality, a dead team walking. I also said that about a different team that we’ll touch on later, and although I was wrong about that team, I was right about this one. Miami stinks, and until they get a real offensive option that isn’t Tyler Herro, they’ll never get back to contention. On Cleveland’s side, you can’t really take much away from this series that we didn’t already know. There was no obstacle in their way as the Heat don’t do anything particularly well. They don’t have Indiana’s pace, Orlando’s defense, or the Pistons’ pace and grit. Miami doesn’t care, and they have a poorly constructed roster. Forgive me for thinking they could pull out a game.

Boston Celtics (2) over the Orlando Magic (7)

My Pick: Celtics in 4

Actual Result: Celtics in 5

The Magic defense is legit. Going into the playoffs, out of playoff teams, they boasted the best defense as well as a dangerous wing tandem in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. For me, this series stamps Franz as a legitimate star more than Paolo. Franz Wagner legitimately gave the Celtics issues and combine that with injuries to Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday, and we get a chippy five-game gentleman’s sweep. Going forward from this series, Orlando needs to get Jalen Suggs back and get a shooter in the building. For Boston, just keep it rolling. Jayson Tatum, in the four games he played in this series, averaged 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. If he keeps that up, the Celtics will waltz to another championship. The key now is to stay consistent.

New York Knicks (3) over the Detroit Pistons (6)

My Pick: Knicks in 7

Actual Result: Knicks in 6

This one is deeply disappointing for Detroit. Apart from game one, they were ahead at some point late in every other game. They seemingly blew every home game they played and clearly looked inexperienced. For New York, it was also disappointing, as they failed to look legitimate against an inferior Detroit group. In addition to squeaking by a startup Pistons team, they also suffered injuries to Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson, the latter of whom carried them through every game. Their reward for getting by the Pistons? A matchup with a Celtics team that they last beat over a calendar year ago. The Pistons probably exit this series with more positives as they have a lot of room to grow and moves to make that will allow them to battle teams like Indiana, Orlando, and Charlotte for the top-four spot in the East, expected to be vacated by Milwaukee. The Knicks? We’ll be writing about how they move forward in the offseason in about a week and a half. 

Indiana Pacers (4) over the Milwaukee Bucks (5)

My Pick: Pacers in 6

Actual Result: Pacers in 5

Another painful ending. Not much to say here if I want to keep this piece strictly about the playoffs. I’m sure I’ll touch on Giannis’ future in the offseason piece, but not here. The Pacers’ devil magic is still alive and well, and they could potentially be setting themselves up for an identical playoffs as last season, as they match up extremely well with Cleveland. My closing thoughts are to respect Tyrese Haliburton (maybe not his dad), double Andrew Nembhard, and remember to catch the ball when you have the lead with a few seconds left (note to Gary Trent Jr.).

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) over the Memphis Grizzlies (8)

My Pick: Thunder in 6

Actual Result: Thunder in 4

Maybe if OKC didn’t seemingly intentionally take out Ja Morant, this is how it would have gone down. After Morant went down in a 2-0 series, the Grizzlies proceeded to blow a 30+ lead in game three and another double-digit lead in game four. With a more reliable offensive option like Morant, they could have made it a series. If anything, this made me very concerned about my perspective on the Thunder walking to a title. They’ll get to play Denver instead of the Clippers, who shouldn’t be too much of a problem, but against a team like Golden State, Minnesota, or Houston, I would worry about them. Right now, I wouldn’t take them against Boston and maybe even Cleveland. I need to see some consistency from both the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If they can finally get to the conference finals, maybe I’ll take them seriously. For now, they’re just the James Harden Rockets, and they aren’t even really there yet. Regardless, Memphis should have never been a match for them, which, at face value, they weren’t. Technically, the Thunder did their job. This sweep of a series still makes me a little bit concerned.

Houston Rockets (2) versus the Golden State Warriors (7)

My Pick: Rockets in 6

Actual Result: Game 7 Pending

Thank the NBA’s pisspoor scheduling for this one. Why is there not an afternoon game seven in the first round before a night game one in the second round? TNT! I’m glad they’re losing the NBA because there’s no feasible reason for this game to be played so late. Getting past my complaints over the scheduling, this has been a weird series of basketball. The Warriors have blown this. In what should have been a five-game series with hindsight, we’re going the distance, and not shockingly, I feel very confident in the Houston Rockets at home. Not only would a win excise demons of the past, but also set them up with a very interesting matchup against Minnesota. The Warriors’ late-game defense, and offense for that matter, has been very poor. Could Stephen Curry play 40 minutes and carry them down the stretch? Absolutely. However, I like the role players and defense at home. Fred VanVleet has seen a revival in this series, and I expect to see it continue. Give me Houston!

Minnesota Timberwolves (6) over the Los Angeles Lakers (3)

My Pick: Timberwolves in 6

Actual Result: Timberwolves in 5

Predictable. I gave Luka Doncic more respect than he deserved. It’s not that they didn’t have a center, and that’s the reason that LA lost, even though it was a reason, it’s because they were so out of shape. JJ Redick turned into prime Thibs and basically killed his two best players by having them go the distance in the final two games of the series. The Timberwolves’ wings were in better shape than the Lakers’ wings, and their role players actually showed up. What happened to Austin Reaves? What about Dorian Finney-Smith? Yes, Luka Doncic was terrible down the stretch and on defense, but that was expected. They needed literally anything else to compete with the Wolves defensively and in clutch time, and no Laker stepped up to the challenge. Good riddance, LA. On the other side, Minnesota is set up, once again, for a deep playoff run. Could this be the year that they go all the way to the Finals? Maybe. Anthony Edwards has never been better and the role players look much more cohesive than last year. It’ll be exciting to see who they see in round two, but either way, I like their chances.

Denver Nuggets (4) over the Los Angeles Clippers (5)

My Pick: Clippers in 5

Actual Result: Nuggets in 7

A dead team walking, eh? Looks like I’ve gotten my first series wrong. The Clippers are insanely inconsistent, and even though they had their games, they just never showed up in the big ones. They won a huge game six but forgot to show up in game seven. They got unlucky on a lazy boxout in game four and got magnet balls against them in every other game they lost. Overrated team and a cursed franchise, oh well. The Nuggets were extremely impressive, but I also can’t help but think that they got lucky. Nikola Jokic was extremely inconsistent, and if Aaron Gordon didn’t come through in game four, the Nuggets lose this series. I don’t like them against Oklahoma City, and my prediction about them being a “dead team walking” may come to fruition against the Thunder. Yes, I will keep doubting them. 

Second Round Series Previews

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs Indiana Pacers (4)

My Pick: Pacers in 7

CLE X-Factor: DeAndre Hunter

IND X-Factor: Aaron Nesmith

Okay, hear me out. The Pacers have dominated Cleveland in the regular season, and not that it means anything, but Cleveland struggles against teams with a ton of scoring from the guard spot, and given how well Haliburton, Nembhard, and even McConnell have played, I don’t love it for Cleveland. Garland, Mitchell, and Jerome will have to work defensively in a way that they didn’t against Miami. I also think that Indiana is hungrier than Cleveland. While it can be stupid to use intangible traits of teams, Indiana had the seventh-best regular-season pace and the fifth-best pace in the playoffs so far. Indiana dealt with Giannis and, outside of one game, very successfully drove Milwaukee off the three-point line. While Cleveland is much better than Milwaukee, given the Pacers’ success against the Cavs in the regular season and how almost the exact same roster was able to play great basketball in the postseason last year, I like them to pull off the shocker again this year. The Cavs could win this series through Mitchell and Garland, but my reasoning for both X-Factors is because of how heavy the production coming from the guards is in this series. The winner of this series will win everywhere else. Siakam and Mobley will have to cancel each other out, and given how interesting the wings have been for each of these teams in the last few years, I think that the Hunter-Nesmith matchup will pick the winner in this series. While Hunter closed out strong against Miami, Nesmith put up better numbers against the Bucks and is also a far better shooter. While Hunter has the better reputation, I like Nesmith better in this series. Between that matchup and Indiana’s experience, I like the Pacers to get back to the conference finals.

Boston Celtics (2) vs New York Knicks (3)

My Pick: Celtics in 4

BOS X-Factor: Kristaps Porzingis

NYK X-Factor: OG Anunoby

Belt to ass. The Knicks have zero hope in this series. As long as Jayson Tatum is on that court, the Knicks won’t win. New York is a soft team with an undersized star who won’t be able to compete with Jrue Holiday. The Celtics hilariously outgun New York in this series, and that’s reflective of their dominance over the Knicks in the past two years. The Knicks last beat the Celtics in April 2024 when the Celtics had nothing to play for, and since then are 0-5 against the Celtics. In their last 8, they’re 1-7 against Boston. This season, Jayson Tatum is averaging 33 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists against the Knicks, and in the last three games against Orlando (post-wrist injury) averaged 36 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. The Celtics are currently in the midst of a historic run, and you expect me to believe in these manchildren cosplaying as an NBA team? Nah. The Celtics have always dominated New York, and that isn’t changing here. Anunoby is the X-Factor because they’ll need some offense out of the wing positions to compete with Tatum and Brown (Mikal Bridges’ stats against Boston are bad to say the least) and KP stands out for Boston as the ultimate counter to anything Karl-Anthony Towns brings to the table in what could also be considered a revenge series for him. Looking forward to writing about the Celtics being in another conference finals in a few weeks.

Second Round Series Previews

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Denver Nuggets (4)

My Pick: Thunder in 6

OKC X-Factor: Lu Dort

DEN X-Factor: Christian Braun

I was really hoping that LA could pull it off because they are much more of a wild card, but instead, we get a rather boring, narrative-filled matchup. Yes, the MVP came down to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, but playoff series are about teams, and no team has been better than the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets barely had enough to get by the Clippers when James Harden was playing the worst basketball of his career, so why would they have enough to get by the mighty Thunder? Nah. Jokic can win them a few games, but not the series. I have Christian Braun as their X-Factor more than Gordon or Porter Jr. because of the speed and awareness he gives them. He’ll probably guard Shai most of the time and will be required to be their momentum-shifting two guard. He’ll have to hit some big shots that aren’t expected more than the expected production of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, and Porter. They won’t win the series, but they can make it competitive if Braun shows up. For OKC, once again, it’s Lu Dort. If Dort can close the Murray floodgates even a little bit, Denver won’t have enough to pull off a shocking upset. Dort is their permanent X-Factor and the best perimeter, one-on-one defender in the NBA. Honestly, the Thunder will go as far as Dort and I think he can shut down Murray enough to get by Denver.

Houston Rockets (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (6) or

Minnesota Timberwolves (6) vs Golden State Warriors (7)

My Pick vs HOU: Wolves in 7

HOU X-Factor: Tari Eason

MIN X-Factor: Naz Reid (who else?)

My Pick vs GSW: Wolves in 5

MIN X-Factor: Donte DiVincenzo

GSW X-Factor: Draymond Green

I already went on my NBA scheduling rant, so let’s just talk hoops. No matter who wins tonight, I like Minnesota in this series. Now, given Houston’s defensive length and size, I like them a lot better than Golden State against the Wolves. Either way, each team doesn’t have the depth to match up with Minnesota offensively. Houston has Thompson, Eason, Brooks, VanVleet, and Adams, among others, to match up with Minnesota’s depth. Golden State, lacking depth, has the offensive attack with Curry and Butler to match Edwards and the rest of Minnesota’s depth. However, Minnesota has key advantages over either team and has the best player on the floor in either series (Edwards is better than Curry right now). Minnesota has more depth, better defense, and about the same amount of offensive production as Golden State, with home-court advantage. The only real disadvantage that Minnesota has against Houston is defense and given how we saw that play out in series like Orlando/Boston and even Minnesota/LA, I like the better offensive team in those matchups. The X-Factors here? Eason is the match to Jaden McDaniels for Houston and could line up against the aforementioned McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Julius Randle. He would need to be their Swiss-Army knife. For Minnesota against Houston, Naz Reid would be the obvious choice to stretch out their bigs when Ime Udoka rolls out the Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineup. If it ends up being the Warriors, Donte DiVincenzo would be the obvious defensive match for Stephen Curry and would be another three-point shooter needed to match Golden State’s production from behind the arc. For the Warriors, Draymond Green stands as the only thing in the way of Gobert, Reid, and Randle completely dominating the series. Yes, Kevon Looney and Quentin Post are there, but they’re no match for the Wolves. 

In the playoffs, we reach points where teams are dominating on another level. I think we’re currently seeing that with Boston in the East, and we’re also seeing it here with Minnesota in the West. I’m excited that we have a game seven tonight, but I don’t think the result will matter much. I can’t wait to watch Minnesota try and get back to the conference finals!

Conclusion and Late Predictions

The second round is where we figure out who the real contenders are. While we all know that Boston and OKC are title contenders, now it’s time to figure out who the rest of them are. Will Ant establish himself on the level of Tatum, Jokic, Shai, and Giannis? Will somebody make a shocking upset? Or will a team like Denver re-establish themselves? We’ll have to wait and see. We have primetime rivalries and great matchups all around. Let’s sit back, turn up the volume, and enjoy some quality hoops!

Adam Zimmerman-Diaz

@TheSatBlues